Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ... -
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor... -
If the steady FIIs inflow reflects in the prices, 5405 should be protected going ahead and market may encounter minor corrections and keep m...
100 comments:
@ Manu,
GG has posted a chart showing a target of 5480 if 5400 is crossed again and if 5375 is broken, then 5295-5300.
If it breaks 5402 now, we will raise our selling level to 5480.
thnx sir ..whr i cn c GG chart
High Volume at 2.pm
SCRIPT % OF 5DAY % OF YDAY Trend
ABB 162 190 DOWN
ACC 91 113 DOWN
CAIRN 207 249 UP
GUJAMBUJA 352 203 UP
IDEA 60 147 DOWN
INFOSYS 78 184 DOWN
ITC 141 113 UP
MARUTIUD 137 107 DOWN
NALCO 245 203 UP
POWERGRID 204 345 UP
RANBAXY 150 122 UP
RELCAP 83 104 UP
SIEMENS 121 156 UP
TATAPOW 86 143 DOWN
holding NF with a revised stop of 5390
Kissed 5400 and 5390. Both bulls and bears have had their chance, now to who wins the battle.
we r above 5400... at 5410 now... spot
Yeah, that was a vertical lift-off.
breakout
http://theprofiletrader.wordpress.com/2010/07/22/elliot-wave-count-on-nifty/
gosh, now I'm stuck with shorts. haha. How do they always lull us into errors?:)
Hi..Prashant,
How are you..? After a long time. Doing well, I hope.
No chance to take any position........ :((
sor
pls correct me if wrong
whenever between day hema and day lema
it pays to look at 5d turning up
costly lesson learnt
typo
sir
hi
dear ilango
can i sell bank nifty at day high ema ?
regards,
alpesh
Hats off to sir's level of 5402 it was magic
hello friends
new post done
http://stock2gains.blogspot.com/2010/07/tcs-biocon-contrarion-bets.html
thanks
regards
I have 5400 calls, now where to get off, since i wish to avoid a hard landing?
@Dear Sir,
Thanks. is it ok to exit intra long now. (entered 5403)
Yoda, me too stuck with short - but just 1 lot....i think i'll keep it :-)
Thanks for remembering sir,
I was off for some academic work
Ilangoji,
Couldn't take any position. What should be the next action now? Feeling greatly frustrated.
Everyday the markets are challenging, especially the corrective phase which it is in 80% of the time. But when the corrective phase stretches longer, a resolving has to take place.
Channelling helps. ANd a triangle breakout is always very swift.
Another clue of corrections: A triangle comes just prior to a top.
Good afternoon Ilango sir and all,
Yoda, ME too!!!!!
yeah, Janak, we may get another gap down to exit. :)
@sir,
it seems Europe and US futures are nearly a 1% up? Shall i carry my long for tomorrow?
@ Manu,
Error regretted. It was TOT-Amit who has posted a similar triangle chart but with a target of 80 points from break out level.
http://tradingontechnicals.blogspot.com/2010/07/nifty-hourly-chart.html
Good work Amit.
lol, satheesh.:)
Sir,
Cud u post a chart to show the triangle from which we got the
breakout???at EOD.... I cant understand how to count it
Ok I wil check the blog :)
@ Prabhakar,
5430-5435 was an earlier resistance.A pause may be in store. Another hour to go and the world mkts are up...
Are you happy with 30, take it.
market blasted everything, jindal steel, ril +9-10Rs. in seconds....
May be you'll get 5440-5445
Neha, I think this is the chart Amit posted and sir referred to:
http://tradingontechnicals.blogspot.com/2010/07/nifty-hourly-chart.html
5400 CE/PE in lakhs - 81/68 !!!
Last week it was 95/40
@ Neha, it was in our 12.00 Noon Post.
Ilango sir, if this is the top, is it time to strat buying long term puts? The premium on them is pretty high but is still worthwhile?
Sir,
Wud it be time to start building shorts above 5450??
People whoever seek advise for shorts..just think about the frustrating tight range we witnessed this week and see how it has broken it.. give some time for settling ..
Wow... what a jump.
I went for lunch after posting the chart and now it is near to earlier high.
Yes Sir... I checked the blog n thanks Shr
assortz,
I agree.... it just that we r at a peak... n puts r getting cheaper,
so I wondered whether buliding shorts above 5450 wud b good
(as in buying puts)
sir .."""Another clue of corrections: A triangle comes just prior to a top."""
plz explain
Yoda me three......................... :<
Sir BN showing Rising wedge from 9950 to 10060 ... Can we short herewith a small SL above today high
ToTa ..
chaa gaye yaar..
Sir ..
tota means beautiful
chick/guy again n punjabi(hope Rg dosnt c ths)
@Sir,
Thanks a lot. I came out at 5440 and Happy with 37 points.
@yoda, me too stuck with 2 lot shorts in ifty, but i bought ril@1050 today 1 lot to balance it out. RIl is in profit but nifty on short side. Net net Loss making.
Yoda me 4...........
SIL
@ Manu,
Triangles generally happens in 4th waves.(Here, it is the count from 5223 lows).
FIRE's EW analysis has an upside of 5464.
Amit's Triangle theory has it @ 5482.
Now, the 5-D of daily TA has turned up for the second day. So we don't simply go & sell but study EOD and then devise a plan.
One small Solace!!! many of us sailing in the same "short Boat"!!!!
Ennakku rendu kan ponalum paravailla, pakkathu veetukkaranuku oru kannachum pogavenum!!!
ssss..yoda..me 5 and I know 6 & 7.. lol
@ Powertrade,
We spotted the reversal in BN quite early. It has been closing above 5-day ema and if closes above High ema(10045 approx.), more momentum to go past 10100.
Hello...1,2,3,4,5 & ????,
Let me know what went wrong. Did you have a plan.Did you stick to them. Did you improvise them as the market start to unfold..??
Did you start to incorporate the new informations into your plan.
What about the SL.?
@ Prabhakar,
I always give spot levels. You would have got an Half century.
lol, aZ, I think I know 6 & 7 too. :)
Yoda and camp..
must hav chckd sir first remark in this post..
trgt may 5480..
thn y u guys shrt withut sl
Sir,
Just a thought !
5 out of 10 are shorts .... 3 on sidelines... Only 2 long.
Who missed covering Shorts around 5420 is still carrying and will only cover if goes above 5500.
Do you think bulls will give them a chance before expiry :)?
I think, At 5480 the 3 ppl waiting on sidelines will decide the future direction...
teejay
The funny thing about SLs: If you want to put a buy order, you can't put it at the same time as a sell order. So I was going to increase my shorts and had to delete the sl to do it, Ilango. Maybe a few seconds before it shot up.:)
Sir,
SL kept at 5415..but it never gave a chance to reverse trade but zoomed to 5425/5430.. we are now waiting for any pull back to off-load them..
To be frank- plan was there and not able to follow the plan after the knock on face..
thanks sir i was short at 9936 but covered at 9946 but didnt buy form there almost a 100 pt run up .. would wait or higher levels to short
@ Satheesh - your post makes me laugh :)
hm. "idukkan varungal naguga" hahaha - summava sonnar thiruvalluvar
soo lighter mood @ this situation
@ yoda, what should be strategy with nifty shorts now?? Can it go 5500 atleast, because 5500 Ce is 1.25 cr OI.
sir,
I did much of scalp trades in narrow range but when the break-out happened we are on wrong foot..
Sir,
I did not place the stoploss buy order for my shorts. I was in the assumption that " I am watching the screen, so I shall cut the short immeditely. I was not able to do that, b'coz I was just browsing to look at the world markets. When I returned back to the screen, NS was near 4430!!! :(:(:(
Sir
Short @4380. SAR @ 5410 still holding
Hi Ilango,
Should close well above all EMAs. SHould be a gap-up tomorrow
which can be sold into.
What's the current count though. Can't seem to make it out :(
Though I had a plan, i was not able to materialize it!! Another lesson learnt today.
@ assortz,
Taking one step back to see the micro move in the larger picture will relieve tension and gives clarity. I do this often when market mesmerises me aka "Jungle book snake".
@wealth creator,
You'll always get a chance to get out at or close to the purchase price, even if it takes a few days (if its not options). The problem is just the time wasted in the wrong direction. Not making money, just waiting for a fall.:(
After being short all these days, I went with Viren's MP numbers and put a buy order at 5399 one minute before this take off. Even i get lucky sometimes...law of averages caught up :)
Hi Assortz, when the breakout happens just cover and reverse.
Too many shorts would be waiting to get out for price to come down.
i was seeing volcano erupting and added ril in longs, but nifty didn't give time to change. It blasted really. So stucked.
Sir,
True..Market is very smart..trading in narrow range..drains your energy and when it moves big you are powerless..
GG,
I repeat...I'm no EW expert but use it well for trading/ investment.Many ask me to give a lifetime Nifty count..I don't have it, though it helps.
Technically it is up witha likely close above all emas. Some part booking(1/3rd can be done)
A bear can say - it is still not cleared the prev. high. He is also correct.
Presently, carry on with the flow.
Anu OI developments..?
@Sir,
yes sir. But last one week made to book early and not to be greedy. Thanks again.
Mappu vechitangaya Aappu...
Bears limping back home.
GG,
thanks
5500 Ce Oi hardly touched/reduced. Is the top near??
there is some liquidation going on in 5400 calls...around 14L reduction...and heavy addition in 5500 CE ...total 1.3crore
same time 5400 put writing going on with 12L added total..68L
5400 is changing fast. CE/PE at 68/57. 5500 also it is still 1.3cr calls and 17L puts. 7L puts added there but I dont know if this can be changed meaningfully to see a 5500 run.
@ fire --- The present fire in nifty reminds of of you and y our analysis posted today in morning
aZ :Only 7 ? What will Alibaba Do - balance 33 must raise their hands now!!!
===
I was very worried about my 5445 Long(Sep Nifty). Happy with 5410 Short (Aug). Now....the feelings are same - just month's changed !!!.
===
sir,
Nifty will make a new closing high even if it doesn't break intraday high there will be -ve divergence on daily charts.....am i right?
----------------------------------
5500 CE OI still on the rise.....best strategy sell 5500CE...cmp 27 exp tgt 0.
Ok. Thank you for those OI analysis.
Last time when 5200PE had the highest OI above 1cr, it did not break 5200. So this time 5500 should remain as a ceiling.
RG,
Gr8..
33 will not raise hand after hearing master’s firing..sir..no offense..:)
"You'll always get a chance to get out at or close to the purchase price, even if it takes a few days (if its not options). The problem is just the time wasted in the wrong direction. Not making money, just waiting for a fall.:("
LOL Yoda, so true!
Bye Sir. Bye Friends.
@Power,
I don't know if Nifty would contain itself within 5464. Conventional TA gives a higher target and I am a novice in EW. But other possibilities must exist and now I have to learn and apply them. A concept called "Double Extension" is coming to mind. I will explore these tonight and send them to the master for rectification.
Anyway, today i am heartbroken. Waited for this opportunity for 3 long days and now the market ran, without taking me along. So, took long in BN as it closed above 10045, as Ilangoji said.
Yoda, it will be impolite to ask how many lots u have shorted but for me, as i've shorted 1 lot - i will see if i can do intraday buys - but today, i was startled by the sudden move of the market....have taken a lot of Tata Steel in the hope that tomorrow it will go up a few points and i'll get some cushion for the shorted lot of NF :-(
Huge turnover today.Rs.1,20,000 Cr.
eod addition of OI in 5500 CE indicates that we may be near to top, i was expecting it to go down let us see the final Bhavcopy, now range till expiry is 5400-5500
Yesterday the FIIs bought huge amount of index options. Last night when I checked the 5500 Call option there was substantial increase. Since the previous day it had closed at 9rs, could it be that the FII's bought 5500 call and the open interest addition was on the long side?
Just one thought,, Assume that expiry is around 5500, so, to pass 5 trading day mkt may top out near 5485 ,then go down till 5400 and can expire around 5500
shr, there needs to be fresh puts written for OI to increase, if the puts are just changing hands from domestic players [retail or institutions] to FIIs, OI would not be altered. To put it in simple terms, OI is the count of unclosed contracts at the end of each day, leading up to expiry.
The benchmark Nifty closed at a new 30-month high on Thursday, tracking strength in global markets ahead of results of Stress Tests of 91 European banks on July 23. Finally, it broke that 5350-5400 range, in which it had been trading for last seven and half sessions and managed to see the highest closing at 5,442 since February 2008. Even the Sensex ended above the 18,000 level.
You can also get Commodity Tips , free MCX tips. here.
hey dimpy, i bought 5400 put @30, can i hope for some profit this expiry??
Good Evening Sir,
It was a cheerful day for Indian markets. Nifty touched a new 30 months high. It indicates that market may boom again.
My Views On Market Tomorrow (23rd, July'10)
Nifty spot manage to break above the crucial 5,420 level indicating positive bias here. Bullish breakout with rise in volume also suggests strength in the market. Breakout above 5,420 level in Nifty spot should lead Nifty towards the next resistance of 5,485- 5,500 level while a breach below 5,420 will drag Nifty again to 5,350 level.
Get Nifty Levels(Supports & Resistance ) For Tomorrow (23rd, July'10)
Where were you Pinky & Dimpy during mkt hrs today?
PATNI COMPUTER
Technical View
Today it opened at the level of 519.30 made high at the level of 528 .70 low at the level of 518.65 and closed at the level of 522.60 it has strong resistance at the level of 544 if it crosses this level then only we can expect some positive movement along with it has support at the level of 500
All Stock future Tips and Nifty future Tips you can get from my blog. You can also check it Stock Options tips
1. aarthi drugs 145
2. adani enterprises 559
3. ambuja cement 115
4. gaberiel 61
5. arss infra 1228
6. indian bank 242
7. jsw energy 126
8. ranbaxy 449
9. sesa goa 365
10.india bulls 158
11.bombay dyeing 535
11 gems for the day buying side....take care....intra sl u have to decide....
[b]upside possibilities are 8% to 18% for a day or two ....maximum time period of monday 3.16 pm..
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