Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Nifty completes a "Five".

The simplest approach, though difficult to believe, is the right approach. Negative divergence, the "Evening Star" formation for the second time alerting a reversal.And finally the sharp fall below the "Day High Ema".
Many contributed on a continuous basis. To name a few:
Mynac - alerted to "5450" being important resistance.
Krish - has been emphasising on the turn dates 13th to 14th.
Tryin2Trade(Manoj)-Boldly selling citing risk-reward with divergent FII buy/sell.
San - has been updating with charts at critical intervals.
ToT Amit - pointed out the time aspect with no.days being completed for a reversal.
Vipani Sangeetham -given the Agni level "5435", closing below which uptrend ends.
Kumaraguru - firmly asserted the start of a downfall.
Rajagopal - with his stock specific alerts "Non-Stop"
Rochak Parekh - with his steady blog updates.....
Now we need to see follow up price action as well as the depth of this correction.



30 comments:

Nifty Tips said...

Thanks Sir,

Regards,

Free Nifty Tips

Anonymous said...

Next interesting day which MIGHT cause the prevailing trend to accelerate (or) culminate
Why....
Jul 16th is on 227.5 degree diagonal from Oct 17 2009 on the Gann chart

Jul 16 is on the on 135 degree digonal from Apr 07 2010 on the Gann Square of 9.

The difference is 90 degree in between the two which is kind of golden in Gann world

Janak said...

Ilango Sir, the way Europe is trading, US Might just follow the trend and we might see a GAP DOWN opening tom. at around 5350 - what do you say?

San said...

Thank you MASTER

Will continue to do so when the market gives an opportunity.

GOOD WISHER TO ALL said...

o.k. It may be a trend reversal, i don't know but i
always wait for a market to confirm it. As i have more
than ten years experience i give more room to price to
ocsillate it saved me many times.
So for me, daily closing below 5350 i would consider
as a trend reversal.

GOOD WISHER TO ALL said...

In an uptrend whenever market fall i always add my
position

GOOD WISHER TO ALL said...

I taken long position in nifty in 25-6-2010 at 5270
but barely i got only 100 so far and i always take
decision only on closing basis. But who knows sometime
i may give all profit to market even tomorrow.
But i don't care i always respect market and my methods.
bye bye

Your Advisor said...

i also agree with you.
Stock Market For Tomorrow

Today Market was open against all prediction with low trend, Sensex today witnessed a correction from higher levels, as in the last prediction we mentioned in our previous report that it is making double top pattern on long time frame chart, & might witness some correction till the lower levels of 17300 to 17400. Closing below this support zone may drag it till the lower levels of 16900 to 17000.
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Anonymous said...

A.M that is the right approach .. But most of us lack that discipline

GOOD WISHER TO ALL said...

@all
Do anybody hear about Nicolas Darvas?
Real legendry trader by invented his box trading methods.
he eared lot of money in 1950s. I know little about his
method. According to his method now in nifty break out
from box (box bottom 5210-- Box top 5366) now price
above box top at 5386.

price always tendency to revisit his top at 5366 to
confirm his strenth.But closing bleow 5366 it may be
some weakness, but confirmation only comes closing below
5210.But need little experience to find out correct box
setup.
Ealier box formed at 4961--5147.

Jatin said...

ilango sir, labeling ew counts first time ..
http://a.imageshack.us/img138/75/nfew.png
this is how i saw and labeled. its different from ur's but plz correct me here...
thnks
jazz

Manni said...

sir

Shouldn't we consider this as a falling/shooting star pattern on daily charts rather than Evening star?

golfdude said...

@ilango sir,

In talking to a friend, and on reading some sites on the state of the US economy/Europe etc, I realize that I dont want to be a permanent bear or bull. That is not what a trader should be. He should just trade the trend. Dont worry about being a bull or bear market. The difference is between going long or going short of the underlying. So the more I read about negative news or positive, these are the talkers. I doubt if they are good at trading.

And I feel from reading your methods, you are a true TRADER.

Keep it up.

wealth creator said...

@ sir

I have a question:-
Have you changed your mind from bullishness to bearish trend because of last minute correction?

Asking because FII tentative figure is still positive around 500 crores today.

Put options are not wound up aggressively nor call options written down aggressively, though price movement of call option prices is quite significant!

are there any bullish possibilities still there, or all is over for now as far as bull ish wave is concerned towards 5500.

golfdude said...

In continuation of yesterday's FII analysis in my blog, FIIs sold 600cr in index futures today. Although they did buy in stock futures. So the FII data in FnO is still leaning towards more downside. But they can change this in a heartbeat. Also note that there was very little put action today, and a few calls in 5300/5400.

http://safegamble.blogspot.com

mynac said...

Dear Ilango,
First of all, Thanks. I found many nice blogmates here since last year, due to only “Just Nifty”; otherwise intra long-short trades are and were not “Confidently” possible. You and many Blogmates motivate us for “self study” time to time. So thanks, again.
Today’s Market:
Though later or sooner the correction was needed and expected but the way market gave a close after fall, was definitely disheartening for Bulls. Now every one is curious to see this time too, that, if there is more correction then whether it will be stopped at 5335 or not because almost 16 lac O.I. is added since 8 July in NF between 5335 and 5454 and still no reduction in it. The O.I. data is also confusing. Since 8 July there is addition of 24.25lac O.I. in 5400 PE and the range for the same is 135 to 45 Rs and today closed at 78.15 Rs. On the other hand there is addition of 1287650 O.I. in 5500 CE and the range is Rs.17.30 to Rs. 46.70 and today the close is 25.35.And no significant reduction in either options. So interesting trading day ahead, so let us see. Till then, good night.

Ilango said...

@ Manni,

The evening star appeared in "Hour chart" yesterday for the first time but failed with a fast rise signal developing subsequently. And today again it developed in "Hour chart" and fallen.

@ Wealth creator,

Have I changed my mind..? During intraday moves, we are mostly discussing about the hour movements and the weakness was identified and shown with charts. Markets fell.

Has it changed the daily set up..? Yes., to a small extent by closing below "Day High ema". This ema may rise to 5405+ tomorrow and market may move even above that "intra day" but need to close above that for the continuation of daily momentum.

If it is a correction to the last upmove from 5210, it should limit itself to 5335 approximately.

We are traders with different "time perspectives". I follow the market closely and air my views.

When "GG" asked me about "fractals" showing another high tomorrow, I answered affirmatively. That is bullish based on the fractals theory and this move from 5210 is mimicking exactly in the same way as the move from 4967 to 5367.
However, all my intra charts were bearish which is based on the "Hour charts" negative divergence.

Such answers made publicly causes misunderstandings.

Are there any bullish possibilities left..?

If Nifty hold above 5335, the possibility exists in the short term.
If the correction continues, it could lead to a larger correction upto 5200/5250 again and trade in 5200-5400 and then attempt to move to new highs.

Everyday's price move, the time factor, etc changes the short term picture initially and then the medium term picture.

We plan a trade based on the past prices and alter them if warranted by the unexpected.

"Day TA UP" is intact.
"Hour TA is down" but being of shortest term, it could change fast to evolving events & impacting news.

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Rajagopal said...

Thank you Sir. Nice of you to recognise another non-human member of Ramayan family along with the Eagle,monkeys,bear...there was a squirrel which did its part.

Nice to be around.

bts : When we look at FII trading must we not take both Cash and Futures ? Will more exposure in future denote building of hedges - higher the hedge Lesser the confidence levels of the big boys ? just a thought.

Good Night Sir and Friends.

wealth creator said...

@ sir

Thanks for decoding complex explanation to avoid confusion.

Since, many like myself are in learning stage, can you recommend good study material also from time to time, as it comes into your notice, so that it can help to be a great help to many of the readers.
If we search on Internet, it's a problem of plenty and every writer has his own way of interpreting charts and persuasion. So, if you come across any good stuff, let us know.

At present studying and applying EW analysis, and evaluating its results, with your support and your explanatory notes.

My nifty calls said...

Dear sir,
i m completly agree with your view 5328 is 13days EMA and in this trend it will act as very strong support.Market may swing b/w 5325-5450 for next 2 days. After consolidating in this range it will go further for New High in next 2 week around 5575-5611.
If i am wrong then pleas correct me Illango sir.
this is my personal view according to my knowledge.

Janak said...

US market up - so European markets turned around also :-) what a fantastic drama going on in the global markets......if US ends in GREEN, then again tomorrow markets will be up......

rochak parekh said...

Hello friends, please find an updates for my trades + a Sai baba bhajan, since its a Sai Vaar today
http://stock2gains.blogspot.com/2010/07/trade-updates-sai-baba-bhajan_14.html

Happy sailing
regards
P.S. - Its an honour that master himself is recognizing our efforts.

Janak said...

US market entering RED :-)

AAR VEE said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AAR VEE said...

HAPPY BIRTHDAY JN !!!!

Barkha said...

Nifty Future for 15th July

Nifty witnessed a correction from the higher levels & in the end closed in the red. The next downside support for it seems to be around the levels of 5340 to 5350. Closing below this support zone may drag it till the lower levels of 5290 to 5300 in short run. We recommend that traders should go for sell in nifty future below 5350 for the Target of 5300 for intraday trading.

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Alisha Jain said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Today at the downside nifty support level can be see at level 5350 and at the uptrend nifty resistance seen at 5430 level today.
INTRADAY NIFTY 50 TIPS

Nifty Tips said...

Thanks For sharing,

Regards,

Free Nifty Tips

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