Retracement strategy, a must for traders.
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor...
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I 'll always be there for you. To make you feel that you're secured. And even if the rain is pouring hard and the sky is almost dark... -
5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ... -
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor...
20 comments:
means there is no chance of nifty coming down in this series.upto 4600. please suggest
Sir, do you see any further upmove beyond 4940 now?
Hi..Rajnish, Ranajay,
Unless Nifty weakens from 4935-4950, (Now daily is near Overbought) and fall in a sustained way, and close the week below 4860-4870, technical set up may change. Let us wait to see in the coming days.
SL is in place.
Yes, 4935-4950 is definitely a "Short opportunity".
I am holding positional shorts created around 4850 today. But the speed of the upmove is a little disconcerting. The troubling thing is there has not been even a small pullback today... steady move. Anyways, lets see what happens tomorrow !!
sir do we need a wider SL..the rise is somewhat dis comforting..cld be a whipsaw crossing 4950 to fall later...
Ilango sir, what sud be the strategy, if nifty opens gap up above 4950, how to handle sl then for our short positions??
Yes, Sridhar,
Sharp rallies are witnessed after such sustained fall.Sometimes they retrace 50% and sometimes 61.8% and at times, it changes into an uptrend.
Because of a major weekly reversal, we expected a shallow retracement and hence to short @ diff. levels.
Now we have kept 4950 as a final resistance. Based on world cues we will take a fresh view tomorrow.
HI ilango ... I have a different kind of question altogether. I want to know from where do you take real time data for nse. I know a few data providers who simply have made utilities which feed the data through yahoo servers into metastock or amibroker, but i dont find that data fully relaible, and sometimes the yahoo servers are down, hence resulating in loss of trading opportunities. I would like to know some relaible real time data source if u know of any. thanks in advance
kapil
The move down was also relentless and one-way. So perhaps we are skipping the consolidation phases in the market, just volatile moves in one direction. Maybe the next move down could start tomorrow and move down just as fast :)
Ilango, do you think it would be possible to do an EW analysis of the USD index or the EUR/USD. I think some amount of USD strengthening is required for our markets to have a deep fall. No pressure, just a request. So if you don't feel up to it, no issues at all.
I want to add two hidden fibo ratio for trading, 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, [76.4/78.6 %, 1.27%], 1.618%, 2.618. The hidden fibo level (76.4/78.6) of current fall of 644 points is 5030/44, that level will come if 4935/55 don’t holds. It is always tough to predict the corrective B wave (specially when global cues r strong). Trade accordingly, with our beloved friend Illango.
Hi.. Illango,
Please give ur comments on 5030/44 retracement level(for shorting), if 4950 not hold.
Dear Ilangoji,
look at 2 charts and comments on it. pl give yr view. have we completed pull back today?
Pankaj Shah
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_fJ202bMkEkU/Svf4TcyeHCI/AAAAAAAAATk/HlxOWBEdMeY/s1600-h/5+day+chart+as+on+9.11.2009-741615.PNG
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_fJ202bMkEkU/Svf4Thu1eUI/AAAAAAAAATs/AbVyi9IOQ2I/s1600-h/sensex+as+on+9.11.2009-742565.PNG
Ilango sir , as soon as NS goes above we will be exiting shorts? right? If it crosses 4950, does that means we are into new uptrend? Plz also tell what sud be our reaction if nifty opens gap up above 4950? Thanks.
Hi..Kapil,
I take my data from "IndiaBulls" broking account.
There are people who have some code to take such data to other software like Amibroker, etc. You should be able to find the required method either @ VFMDIRECT.COM or at "Marketcalls"(In my blog list).
I never had any problems with IB a/c and their data is good.
Hi..Sridhar,
Below is the link to see US dollar index EW and it is from Tony's site & very reliable.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987&cmd=show[s118829680]&disp=O
According to many EW experts in the US including the reputed "Elliott wave International", US dollar index is supposed to have bottomed @ 74.94 and has finished its 1ts wave up and in the terminal stage of 2nd wave down. Once its 3rd wave commences, then weakness will be seen all around & commodities.
There is also a view that it can break 74.94 and move lower once before reversal(It is not a preferred view.)
Hi..Hemanta,
On its way up from 4353, Nifty faced a minor resistance @ 4747 and then stalled @ 4900-4935. And subsequent to its move above that it took support @ 4904 to 4921, 4940 on many days.
Then, when it started its down move from 5182, it fell stright to 4968 and held ground for 2 days and gapped down on "RBI Policy" day and in its intra upswing on that day, it went up to 4957 leaving a gap @ 4957-4968 and fell steadily to 4539.
If Nifty clears that strong resistance zone, then TA will change TO BULLISH.Besides it need to sustain above it and close the week above 4910-4920. So lot of action seem to be pending..
Hi..Pankaj,
I saw the charts in those two links you have provided.
You have put in a lot of efforts to highlight the fibo relationships & the negative divergences. Also the downward sloping channel resistance as well as the 5-week avg resistance.
Now, it rests with the global cues to arrest this rally.
Alternatively, if it continues up, then it can retrace higher to the next cluster area of 17000-17150 in sensex and 5000-5040 of Nifty.
Good work and great contributions. Thanks.
Hi..Bizagra,
Let us wait for the global cues and take a decision on that.
As per our TA and the price patterns, 4935(61.82% retracement & previous support base) is supposed to be a strong resistance zone +/ - 15points.
thanks a lot Ilangoji!
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