I would look for 4838(50%) or 4860 an earlier pivot to hold for any bullish view. Looking at the way the world mkts were stretched making all the bears into bulls and then falling suddenly, especially when the $ was hitting new low, is a smart way to lull all the bulls into watching the $ moves & then dump it all in a swift way.
Our markets too suggested similarly with two days of "intra day falls" but closing firm, thereby keeping the Technicals intact(As all the TA is based on close prices) and then sliding down upto 5060 quietly & then a sharp fall yesterday.
Downside target: If 4838-4860 does not hold, then A = C would be 4495(5138 - (5182-4539=643))
Nowadays, the divergences do not result in immediate price reversals. They test your "Patience" with multiple divergences and then fall. But fall they ultimately do.
I am still of the view that after this correction which might last 10-15 days and if 4400-4500 can hold, Nifty should start on its last upmove to 5400-5500 or more. I see "the whole of trading post election results as one big consolidation". Being a big consolidation, it provides huge trading opportunities if one could identify the "reversals within" in quicker time.
"I might not be available for the first session". Wish you a safe trading.
24 comments:
Sir,Very much calculative analysis.Very nice.4970-4950 is the very crucial zone.Though it has slipped yesterday with a free fall,bulls may hold this zone at the end of trading session because otherwise there shall be more vigourous fall below this level.Let us see because no one knows the market,we can just predict it before 9.55 and after 3.30 in between it is a story of a elephnt and 4 blinds.Those blinds who touched those body parts of the elephant thinks,the elephant is like that i.e.leg=piller,tail=rope etc.
Ilango ji, already market gave a hint that it may jump upto 5.6K++ in january 2010... see Jan 10 series of nifty future yesterday.. the high it shows is mouth watering...
my understanding is that during dec 2009 - market may comedown below 4.5 k - even it may fill the election gap around 3.6 and from there it may rally. You may take it as a wish full thinking of a guy who dreams to have quick and easy money.
Though i have the right to dream, i have to duty & responsibility to follow the market wherever it goes - if i wish survive here... that is the hard truth..
very interesting analysis sir...we might open 80 pts down...a gapdown after a long time...will keep watching the option data closely
When maret comes down,usually the next targets are predicted.And there is nothing wrong in it.After a intraday fall like yesterday Usually it is observered that a day trader usued to get trapped in this situation.He/she just cannot belive the screen because the figures that blink on the screen are not familier to him so he waits but afterwards realises that he has lost the opportunity to go short, so in anger he usued to take a position in anger,might be at intraday support.And then just wait for cover.When market goes down trader thinks that it might touch 0000 at 3.30.So one should be very carefull that in normal circumstanses it may correct intraday to max.3%.then it may dip tomorrow but it wont be 00 in just one day.
HII ILango sir/ Hemanta sir, is it a good idea to book shorts once near 4860 and re-enter them below 4835?
Hi ilango,
GM brother !!
Hi Hemanta,
GM Sir !!
Hi..GM to all.
It does not hurt to book a huge profits once here(Part booking is advisable).
The first fall of 5182 to 4539 did not offer much of a rebuying opportunity.
This being the "c" wave, it might.
snp futures are going deeper and deeper into red..arnd 3 1/2 % now..there is lot of OI build up arnd dec 4500 puts...
Hi Hemanta,
I am c.v.mahendiran,yesterday you wrote a article very excelent.than pls give me a idea about which broking form charge least brokage. I pay (75+75+service tax +trancaction tax+surcharge)=around Rs 200 per nifty lot.thanks.ID cvmahendiran@gmail.com
Hi all,
there is a +ve divergence seen in 5 days chart. Can we play for a pullback.
Hi..Vinod,
If you can smartly play a bounce for an hour, then look for a small bounce @ 4828(+/-15 points).
Always be aware of risks involved in such trades, especially in a fast falling markets.
I would rather wait for a 50+ points pull back to sell in case I missed selling.
an example of irregular option pricing... i have been following 4900 strike since morn...in past half an hr as the nifty has gone down further by 60 pts...4900 call has gone down only by 8 rs...just not moving...whereas 4900 put is appreciated by 30 rs
Thanks Illango..
Dear sir, I am satheesh and i wish to know if it is advisable to buy 4900 put now
ilango ji,
if time could you please post ew count from 5138 til now.
Thanks
Hi..Renu,
I just posted it.
Hi..Satish,
Buy puts when Nifty moves up to 4860-4900++ zone & combine it with intraday TA.
okay sir thank u
Dear sir, what can be the positional stop loss for nifty if shorted at current levels?
Hi ilango,
How i can calculate for put SL in NF from Nifty Spot?
Hi..Satheesh,
We have mentioned in yesterday's "PreMarket View" a S&R(Stop & reverse) trade @ 5050. That is a correct positional sell.The day before I suggested to book profit on Longs at 5135+(Optional).
If you sell at 4860 or 4900 as suggested earlier, keep a SL of 30-50 points(more if you can hold out) as more falls are awaited.
Hi.. Mahendrian,
I m trading from R.K Global. All details for u:-
1. Brokerage for 1Lot Nifty Rs9(for buy)+Rs9(for sell)=18 + other tax.
2. Monthly rental for odin (.exe based faster terminal) is Rs 299+(10.32%tax).
3. Account opening charge for odin Rs 199 + one month advance rental @Rs 299+(10.32%tax).
For web based terminal it is 199 + 99(+10.32%tax)
4. Client should have account with HDFC Bank with Net Banking Facility. Otherwise u have to use cheque/3rd party transfer.
See following link for details:-
http://www.rkglobal.net/
I m trading from the same city Kolkata(their main branch) & very much satisfied with their service. But the web based terminal with Rs99/month is not good for real time intraday trader (it is good for positional trader).
GO FOR FASTER TERMINAL LIKE Diet Odin 9.1.0.5 IF U R A REALTIME INTRADAY TRADER.
FOR REALTIME NIFTY TRADER EVEN 10/20 SECONDS EARLIER ORDER EXCECUTION (@MARKET PRICE) VERY IMPORTANT. SOFTWARE BASED TERMINAL (MUST RUN FROM UR COMPUTER) ALWAYS FASTER THAN WEB BASED TERMINAL.
For Registered Office in your city see:
http://www.rkglobal.net/Contact.asp
-----------
Also India Infoline has lower brokerage(but RK Global is lowest) and provide Diet Odin Terminal. For more details see:
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HAPPY TRADING with beloved Ilango..
market has shot up with such a vigour!!!! Can it be considered as an oppurtunity for going short at higher levels?
HI Hemanta,
THANKS
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