Firstly a "Big Thank you" to Hemanta for contributing for the benefit of many.
And I appreciate everyone's participation here..quite enriching..
Technical set up is fast changing requiring a decisive weekly close.
A clear break in the Hourly channel @ 5050 today.
The importance of these numbers & their positioning can never be underestimated..
3 comments:
sir...also want to point out that snp fut are down by 2 1/2 %...have to see whether this will finally be some bears arriving or just tha bull laying the trap for the move up...till monday the suspense remains
Dear Thiru Ilango,
Is it a doubble top formation at 5182 and 5138, and if so what may be the down ward target ?
Hi..Shaq & Nandi,
The simple analysis has been that the fall of "5182 to 4539" retraced the earlier rise from 4577 to 5182 in quicker time signalling a reversal. As the fall was continuous without a pause or consolidation, the retracement rally was swift and it could not retrace in quicker time. The move from 4539 to 5138 was in a clear "abc" pattern and the sharp reversal, expecially on the settlement day, indicates a reversal to the down move. Technicals too support such a view.
I would look for 4838(50%) or 4860 an earlier pivot to hold for any bullish view. Looking at the way the world mkts were stretched making all the bears into bulls and then falling suddenly, especially when the $ was hitting new low, is a smart way to lull all the bulls into watch the $ moves & dump it all.
Our markets too suggested similarly with two days of "intra day falls" but closing firm, thereby keeping the Technicals intact(As all the TA is based on close prices) and then sliding down upto 5060 quietly & then a sharp fall.
Downside target: If 4838-4860 does not hold, then A = C would be 4495(5138 - (5182-4539=643))
Nowadays, the divergences do not result in immediate price reversals. They test your "Patience" with multiple divergences and then fall. But fall they ultimately do.
I am still of the view that after this correction which might last 10-15 days and if 4400-4500 can hold, Nifty should start on its last upmove to 5400-5500 or more. I see "the whole of trading post election results as one big consolidation". Being a big consolidation, it provides huge trading opportunities if one could identify the "reversals within" in quicker time.
Best regards.
ilango
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