"It is possible that the 4th wave is still continuing. My reservations are that Bank Nifty has broken below last low by a wide margin whereas Nifty hasn't, which led me to look for an alternative terminal in the way of an ending diagonal.
If the today's upmove with a break above 4800 gets contained within the falling channel, then ED continues. If breaks past the channel decisively, then we should label the "iv"th as an "abcde" and the last fall from 5034 to 4728 as "v"th.
Regular TA, barring Daily, does not conform to a bottom yet. So above 4800, one could stay long till 4910-4930 comfortably and look for weakness OR Continued strength near 4930."
If you start the ED from 5169, then the terminal ED has ended @ 4728.The confirmation of the same would be a faster retracement of 5169.
A close above 4888-4914 would confirm a ST reversal.
Go Long at the open closer to 4830-50.
If the today's upmove with a break above 4800 gets contained within the falling channel, then ED continues. If breaks past the channel decisively, then we should label the "iv"th as an "abcde" and the last fall from 5034 to 4728 as "v"th.
Regular TA, barring Daily, does not conform to a bottom yet. So above 4800, one could stay long till 4910-4930 comfortably and look for weakness OR Continued strength near 4930."
If you start the ED from 5169, then the terminal ED has ended @ 4728.The confirmation of the same would be a faster retracement of 5169.
A close above 4888-4914 would confirm a ST reversal.
Go Long at the open closer to 4830-50.
56 comments:
Namaste Ilango Sir and all friends here
SGX Nifty is ruling high since yesterday at 4884 a gain of
more than 100 point from NSE Nifty close of last trading.
all Asian markets are in the green and Europe closed in the green yesterday
all the best for a profitable trading day
regards
good morning,master & friends.:D
SGX nifty now at 4930.
Ilango sir, Good morning. I was short at 4970 on 30th Sept and held till 4th Oct after which my patience ran out and I booked out. Usually, I set my trailing stop loss at around 50% of max gain made, which in this case was (4970-4729)/2= 120; 4970 - 120 = 4850; So my TSL should have been at 4850 but I booked out on 4th Oct around close at 4770. On 5th, when the market went upto 4828, I got tempted as my TSL was still not hit and was a shorting opportunity with a SL of just 20 points. As I was thinking, market started tanking and I never entered till it made a bottom and started retracing and I felt this is going to go down more and I entered a short at around 4770 [same place where I exited on 4th]. I thought I'll hold on till today and see what happens, but your comments towards the end that anything could happen, further falls possible, or it could break 4800 on the upside made me come out towards close on 5th with a small profit. If I look at SGX Nifty now, it shudders me even to think what would have happened had I held on to the shorts as I had invested even the profit made between 30th and 4th. SINCERE THANKS FOR THE COMMENT AT CLOSE.
SGX Nifty at 4925... OMG
Are my eyes seeing wrong or the sgxlive.in website wrong ..?
Ending diagonal has 5 waves which divide
themselves in fractals of 3. How can you label
current action a diagonal? Is this what you been
breathing since 1992?
Namaste Ilango Sir & Blogmates,
A corrective bounce in the making: Option Analysis for 05-10-2011
Duplicated at Wordpress Site
Thanks & Regards,
Sanjay Kr Jaiswal
EWI, please dont start. We are all tired of the occasional expert/critic like you. Even if Ilango sir modifies Elliot Wave completely and renames it Ilango Wave, we dont care. Can you even imagine the amount of effort it takes to update the tables and the charts every hour, every day? Please go away
Bulls received a 250 pt down day last week. I guess bears get it today. Wierd market - full of so many gaps.
@Ilango sir Pls guide what to do in such huge gap up
opening and as it seems that Jnsar is going to hit at
open what to do for JNsar trades?
Good Morning Master and copy to all
and Salute to Krishna.
GM Sir,AND All gems of Just nifty,
I just remember your word........
@ Hitendra,
Nifty has travelled 3/4th distance of the current channel. Below 4740, it will continue down towards 4650. But if it moves past 4800, then it will move up creating another upward channel.
4740 break or 4800 break - On Friday.... Both looks possible.
If one is short from higher level, he'll carry shorts, having part booked along the way.
To create new positions, I would suggest to wait as it could go either way.
Good morning Sir and blogmates
Good Morning Master & Friends
Namaste Ilango Sir and fellow bloggers
LV
Good Morning sir and All .
@ krishna rightly said....yes we are tired
@ Sam,
Go Long in the gap start - 4879 onwards.
Namaste Ilango Sir and JN Family.
Thank you sir,
For all the EW followers:
What is a wave..? Can anyone answer..? Did Mr.R.N.Elliott answered..?
It is a subjective one.
You show me a "12345" wave; and I will make it "abc".
I started labeling an alternative Ending diagonal few days ago. And today, Tony Caldaro of Elliott wave Lives on, a highly respected EW site, has labelled S&P 500 having ended with ED.
Just follow the directions. Never get into EW label arguments. It never does anyone any good.
read between the lines
and one must also read between TT and Profit table :D
Good morning ilango sir and friends
Sir if it reaches 4930 should it be part booked or a TSL maintained?
& please Sir do not get perturbed as u had given enough signals for peolple to understand to book their shorts or partbook
Good Morning Ilango sir and friends.
if you are Sudarshan Sukhani, Sir
welcome to our lovely home that Sir Ilango has built
have a nice time here Sir
Good Morning sir and Warriors
Sir not crossing DJnsar?
@parimal ... i am sudharsan from chennai
@ Bhavan,
Most TA has just turning up. They will run for hours and then for days too.
So buy & hold.
Once it starts to trade firmly above 4912, weekly Pivot, it should gather strength towards WEma-4976.
4870 will act as support.
Sir bought from yesterday @4772NF so cannot contai or perplexed at what to do now
Can any body update nifty open interest positions on a regular basis? It may provide some clue.
If open interest crosses 30 million then may be fresh longs entering the system.Other wise it may still be a mere short covering rally.Regds.
sir,
day has not given good reversal though there
is pos div in slow hour macd. in day fmacd, day 9rsi,day
14 d no good divergence is there. we are having fierce
gap up and downs in the pattern looks like.
day just rising frm o/s
Good Morning to Master and all Seniors.
Sir in case of stock specific JNSAR how much filter should be kept. Like for Nifty it is 20 points filter so for stocks can i keep a filter of 0.5-1%. Sir please help me.
@ Bhavan,
I noticed your "Buying on Wednesday closing hour"...That is an aggressive entry which is individual trader's choice & style.
you could part book @ 21DEma.
Good Morning Everyone!
Ilongo Ji , Why are we going long.. ?
Is it place to short as it looks to be the channel top and near the JNSAR?
Thats what I understood from the Pre-Market view?
Sorry if its a silly question?
jnsar longs.....wts the stop loss 4870?
Good Morning.............
Wow. No move for 30 mins so far. Coiling up.
Gm Sir and All Blogmates
Today's Opening is like Mini Election gap opening..
So as per previous experience we should not accept Nifty
should go down in hurry
We have WEMA@4901 JNSAR@4914
and 4930 MLEMA are resistance
Above these levels there will be a clear rise till 4949
and 4976
Bhavan
same situation here
क्या करे कन्ट्रोल नही होत्ता 4%
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI6Sk5_Hxo0
In the last 3 days' trade FII sold stocks worth more than 2,800 crore.
LV
LLANGO
as per EW count still 4 th wave running,if 4720
break then only we assume 5 th wave run,other wise
still 4 th wave in more complex form ,as per EW nifty
target below 4500 sure.4th wave max up side is 5490 range
@Ilango
Sekar has raised a valid point.....We are below JNSAR,
week pivot, and day high ema and month low ema...please
enlighten as to why we should not open shorts at these
levels, given that your chart indicates that weakness
persists below 4949.....
Confused with this long call....would appreciate your view
The tools I'm using for the current situation is the regular TA with Macd, stochastics & rsi. All of them are turning up from the bottom in both Hour & Day. Only reservation is of week which is still "weak".
So you could choose to wait for the week to bottom out. OR even wait for the last high to be conquered(5034) or a decisive break out of the channel resistance @ 4935.
Choice is yours.
LLANGo,i am long nifty till 4720 not break, other wise
change to short if break 4720,4720 break if confirmation
market move towards 4500
Sometimes baby bull gets abandoned and sometime baby bear
But profit gets "abandoned" every time! :D
@Experts: Has JNSAR Long triggered @4914?
New Post Done.
There have been only 6 occasions in last 12 years when US markets have gapped up 3% or more - out of these 2 have been trend up days, 2 were trend down and the other 2 have been flattish.
Odds are high that at some point during the day we retrace down to at least NS 4870 and then go back up and close near highs of the day.
Open of today's type is very rare.. happening once every few years. And it happened because Nifty had a holiday yesterday. Needs to be traded carefully.
@Ilngo
Thank you
Sir can u update the falling wedge pattern and its breakout level.
this is only for people following JNSar if one is strictly following it u would have ended with profit even if one had not part booked as the entry would have @4974 0r 4950 approximately and we r currently @4915 the current JNSar so simply a minimum profit of 40 ponts if ONE STICKS to the BASICS instead of getting confused all values of Nifty Spot and so it has been advised to follow the prices
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