Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ...
60 comments:
@Ilango
Thank you
US VIX in continual down mode, including dollar index
Case for further upsides remain
@ Bramesh - thanks. bears will really happy if NF sustains below 4934/30/4900 levels. the same above is happy for bulls :P i am "sandwiched" with TSL
Stock -ji - dracula on the way???? early "topout" or still pending?? 2morow is full moon day so next???
Satheesh - உங்க கூட ••கா•• நீங்க எங்க பக்கம் வரலைன்னா
Typical stock mkt behaviour: earlier resistance (4933)
acting as support & the next support (4965) acting as
resistance.
"4966" was the last high before the drop to 4720 low last month.
Clearing 4966 would add to bull strength and also take it away from the break-out point.
@Sujatha
Everyone seems to be waiting for the full moon for
a downside move......caution...other parameters seem
to support a surge...
Dear animoitra2011,
Thanks.At present its not much importance for the
O.I. roll over for this series because after that it went up to 4728 for this seriess but most of the roll over was between 4910-5045 for this series on expiry day.
At present trading very comfortably above Hrly pivot,
Hrly Hema & DHEMA,so interesting tussle there.
the graph seems to say that nifty might end at its high
today, but the NF premium says other ways. Has any one
noticed that in the 1st half nifty was trading @~12 in
premium & the same is now @~8. Once this reduces to
less than 5, then I am expecting nifty might break 4933.
Sujatha,
it is unfair of you to give me a ••கா•• :( :(!!!
Before the real move, there may be one false break-out.
This is because important levels are placed closely at
either side. Stop losses might get eaten.
Not a thumb rule but experience.
@Sujatha,
for dracula- wait and watch. mail sent. Watching Infy.
Weekly bullish, Daily flirting with channel, hourly getting OB.
@Mynac agreed but still oi denotes strength to sustain if any.Regds.
4959 is 20 dma.think any close below that will be bearish.regds.
As far as I remember, Nifty has topped out a lot of times on the day of Infy result. Do I remember it right or thinking wrong? Help anybody?
@Fire
Your inference is correct.....however, another trading
session to go before INFY results....before market opens
on wednesday....this rally could continue
Infy had a bad history from past 6 quarters to tank on
its results day and inturn taking market with it on downside
Lets see wht happens tomorrow
Rgds
Bank nifty should break the day’s high to add mileage to bulls now
Ab samay aachukkahain.. sab mil kar "Govinda..Govinda" bolna.
I hate predictions. But, severe weakness in rupee in the recent past might dampen the infy results and guidance.
Sujatha if this breaks down then I will be in your side!!!
5min chart
Ab samay aachukkahain.. sab mil kar "Govinda..Govinda" bolna.
Now the time has come... all of us should chant -"Govinda..Govinda"
AshishAg,
My mistake. Sorry!
You are right and thanks for correcting my view.
Time has come. All join together to say Govinda Govinda
LV
@Nanji: I think you mean otherwise. If rupee depreciates,
it is very advantageous for IT companies.
Why - say for every $1 of profit they were earlier getting
Rs 45/- but now they get Rs 50.
Master Gobinda Gobinda is bullish or bearish?Regds.
How many of you are not happy with this break-out ?
If most of us are not happy, then this is perfect break out and bears are in danger.
Dear friends,
Now it has become more interesting because there is
Highest intraday volume Bar @ 4966 NS there.Now For Bulls,
it should not go very easily below 4966 & for bears vice versa.
is just one thinking.
Sir, its long time since we have had your critics view!!
Sathesh - thanks :)
Animo - good "Q" ha ha :)
nanjil - OK..if it's real breakout "where it will go" any idea of next level??
tks n advance.
Prabhat,
Right.
@Nanji, Prabhat
Rupee weakening is advantageous for IT companies...
however, it was not factored into calculations...most
IT companies are heavily hedged in the forward fx
market.....the surge was so unexpected, that not
much advantage to IT companies is likely to accrue...
the slight benefits expected is already in the price
rise
@Mynac even if we consider that 4966 is a buy it is strange others have not come to short cover also the vol. at the said rate is double
Sujatha,
4995
5025
5168
5230
Bhavan - i feel some Biggies will start accumulate shorts from 4933 level hope EOD figures will reveal mynac thro some "light" on this issue . EOD close below 4968 is little relief for "bears" as per me...
where is PT??? MY SL hit :( waiting for EOD close
Dear nanjil,
If it is a real breakout then it has a potential to go
up to even 5020.Considering the buying @ higher levels,
which is possible & indicates the strength but If not
then let us see,because 5day 200mn chart stoch.has gone
above 85 mark,RSI yet to catch it.
But sujatha,
Anybody can through levels like this. One has stay tight till they reach their calculated levels. Let’s us see where it take us without eating the SL.
Rupee Weakness will not be so good as expected for IT comp
1.Euro has also corrected so it will be a dampner
for Infy as it has it share of revenues for Europe.
2. All comp are hedged so if it goes above certain levels
ie. Hedging level it turn out to be loss of companies
3. Infy is always conservative in guidance and looking
at Global slowdown they can reduce there guidance
4. This quarter results will be interesting as many companies will
will have M2M losses due to rupee weakness
Rgds,
Bramesh
4965 is weekly R1 too.
4990 NF is exactly touching the blue upper trendline of the 5min chart!!
also it is the 88.2% retr for the fall from 5034 - 4728
Suja -
Ippo vilalama, mela poolama?
Dear Sujatha,
For me it's not 4968 but 4961.50 & then 4954 for a day
now as per my little bit study.Let us see.
dear Mynac,
If you have checked the FII fno data sheet on Friday
they bought 65K contract but interestingly the OI was
not at all changed..
How will u interpret such data?
what i understood is they cut out shorts and took equal
qty longs.
Rgds
Fire - weekly FIBO R2 4966 + 4968 is my NON-TECHNICAL no.too (hehe don't ask wat is it) + 4943 swing means - chances are there for "false breakout". am i seeing "mkt" with biased view??? no.. thinking practically i believe..but as usual it may 'slap me" :D will deserve it wat to do??
nanjil - super figures :) hurrey don't mistake me yaar ..i told about nifty figures only :)
Hidden bearish diversion on 15 Mint chart
but JNSAR up so not to be traded
mynac - that's my NON-TECHNICAL NO. thanks for your technical view no.
Satheesh - engavenna polam right rightttttttttt shhhhhhhhhhh given whistle :) am ready 2morow onwards again power cut starts here..:( so will be careful
Sorry its not Hidden its regular
@Sujatha,
I am in your team. Feeding my gambling instinct, which I have to do from time to time to keep my sane trading intact for most of the times. :P
Mynac,
Global markets and commodities showing sign of small recovery. When the sentiment is +ve, there is no doubt that we attract money from FIIs considering today’s financial world.
Dear Bramesh,
My understanding is also the same and today probably
they are buyers here.Because it is observed that due to
money power they can hold critical levels comparatively,
easily and unexpectedly which we are witnessing at
present:)Because when DII are buyers market used to
give at least once or twice an opportunity for intra
cover,but for FII,the story differs.
Fan breakout level, connecting 5702 and 5168, is at about 5005 for now. Maybe the real breakout level. Below that, uncertainty remains.
Dear Sujatha,
"my" Technical(?) view No.? today you are in a joking mood.:)
Sujatha,
I believe this is not false break-out. But hope and belief are not suitable when it comes to market. So, figures for other side.
4940
4885
4830
4835
4780
@Ilango
Towards week high ema of 5030????.....a possibility??
Thanks a Lot Mynac for your views.
We will be closing above 20 SMA and JNSAR on long side.
so carrying longs looks safe....
Rgds,
Bramesh
to all,
experts can handle themselves the jnsar levels. but my advise to new followers . if day jnsar triggers buying , buy and if profit of 30-50 points comes book intraday, because larger trend is down. if profit doesnot come the same day , as happened on 7th october, wait for one more day. donot book loss in haste. whenever day jnsar triggered buy or sell it gives minimum 50 points
profit.
I had shorted @4955. Shit I am trapped. My SL is 5025 Nifty spot.
Congrats AshishAg on your 5000 Target.
varun said...
is jnsar short or long.........
pls help,,,,,,,,,,,lost lots of money first time trading jnsar
October 7, 2011 3:24 PM
Hope didnt loose hope and give up
@Prabhat Why do you say you are trapped? You are trapped only if they gap over your SL.
IMO SL should be set at a level where the loss incurred is something you are willing to take.
If you are concerned that tomorrow they will gap over 5025... I can understand that concern.
Respected ilango Sir,
plz if u have time
explain that
how did u calculate level 4960-80
Hmm... the close looks very bullish...
But often things are not what they appear to be.
@ Prakash,
The price got resisted @ 4966 before falling to 4720 last month; Today's R2 was 4952 and I arrived at the middle point as 4960 for 1st resistance.
Surpassing & sustaining 4952, it generally moves towards R3 which was 4981 and hence 4980.
Based on TA strength/ weakness, the status of the upmove vis-a-vis its age and EW possibilities, look for those price clusters as well as important numbers from TT & Pivot table, you will be able to arrive at reasonable supports & resistances.
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