Good Morning All
45 mins of trade & we already added 6 lac OI for 6200 call.... it seems even more difficult for bulls now.... Somewhat got the feeling that even RBI not raising rates might not be booster for bulls. & nifty might just sell off the highs.
@Prabhat:: should we need to wait for nifty to make a new high for day just around or after RBI announcement for entering short position?
Hrly Stoch extremely OS but / and consolidation mostly below Day pivot and hrly JNSAR
More than 100+ fall yesterday and today Nifty is struggling to hold back 10-15 points in positive territory, which shows the strong weakness prevailing. Policy can create some volatility.
In case nifty sustains 6100 then you can go long with 6080 as SL & in case nifty runs up post announcement & resists 6185-6190 then you can short with 6210 as SL.The above is my pure personal viewpoint. Please trade as per your analysis.
Thanks Prabhat. Appreciate ur viewpoints.
Infy ADR fallen 5 % in last 2 days in US .Trade with levels.
6131 to 6159 is 28 points rise in "a";if "b" done @ 6146.80, 6146.8+28=6175 would be "c".(whether ABC or just A would be known if 6175 gets resisted)Hence, sell closer to 6175 with just 6 points SL.
Dear Ilango Sir & Blogmates,OI Table Update at 11:00AM, Pivot-6167, R1-6191, S1-6124, VWAP-6157The CE writers are still very much in control just before RBI Governor's Policy Statement, 6200 would be a tough nut to crack, Sell on rise till 6197 NF is taken out convincingly…Thanks & Regards
@ Prabhat I also agree with your thinking. To me looks like we may see around 6070 levels post announcement. However stop-losses are required given the volatility in the trade
Good Morning Master,Is any indicator or any study help to find that ABC done or its just only A, pls guide?
Dear Ilango Sir,c can also do around .618 of a in this case (which would be done at 6165)
@Aly: I have hedged by 6000 puts with 6200 call. Lets see how mkts swing. I feel RBI will be a negative event - i mean even if mkts rise they may not break 6200 (I feel shorters will come in to short) & if in case RBI rises rates or gives -ve outlook, then
NDIA CREDIT POLICY : RBI HIKES REPO RATE BY 0.25% TO 8%, KEEPS CRR UNCHANGED AT 4%
Dear Sir,what is your outlook now? v waves done or we may see a continuation of waves for more downside (which has been the case for all the last big donwmoves)
Around 6077 to 6088, a 5-waves may be complete from 6356.To be confirmed with the retrace of this sharp fall from "6163"..
Sentimentally, with this RBI rate hike we should not see a large retrace. esp. 6188-6190 levels should be protected being the GAP down opening yesterday. Dear Ilango Sir, what would be the value of upper trendline of the downmove channel this hr?
@ Aly,It would be roughly 6157.
Retrace for the last sharp fall:6125 6134 ... is 50%-61.8% retrace of the last fall from …… 6163 to 6086 80% is - 6148 If weakness is to return, it should be around 6125 6134 Strength gets confirmed above 6134 OR 6148
Thank you sir for your guidance
@Master: Can we consider going long in case 6100 is held for today? Maybe go long @6100-6110 levels with 6080 as SL?
Wow did any one see how indian retail public is looted by big FII's today. Shocking.
all experts on tv and from all other places predicted market based on pcr oi smr vix are terribly failed once again
@ Nifty TraderWhat is it that you are alluding to?LV
It is always the retailers who try to join in the party when the mkt has started to reverse & end up losing money. If one sees, 6100 call is steadily adding on to OI. Slowly the bears moved the cap from 6400 to 6300 to 6200 & now 6100. I guess mkts will close below 6100 for today. Maybe near Master's levels of 6070-75.
GM Master, How one should know a correction to this five wave fall is coming to end? Is it only based on +ve divg of oscillators / momentum Indicators?
@ VenkatapathyI just saw an article showing how FII made big sell position in nifty future today ahead of policy and market followed it. FII have insider news and all retail public is left in dark. 100 % manipulation done by FII's.
New Post Done.
Master Is it prudent to assume 6186-6140=a ; 6140-6104=b & c=6104-xxx forming to take a shape of 5 wave move on 2 min t/f?