Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ... -
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor... -
If the steady FIIs inflow reflects in the prices, 5405 should be protected going ahead and market may encounter minor corrections and keep m...
57 comments:
Hi Sir:
Just one question regarding the Rising Wedge. at what level
this will be completely negated?
Thnaks,
Sujeet
HHEma-HLEma trading system explained here
@golfdude,
nice system. we have to wait for hourly close. few times a month we have very big hourly bars.
how to deal with them??
are u trading the system yet or just paper trading??
Funny morning walk...
http://ribbu.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Morning-walk.jpg
for intraday falls, other than DHEMA, 4911 to 4921 can act as good supports.These levels acted as good supports previously in sept and dec in daily charts. reference taken from google charts.
tks GD,
will try this out from tomo.
pls also give me an intro on the JNSAR method, if u have 2 mins,
How to set up a trade based on JNSAR ?
rgds
Shriram: I think prabhakar gave you the link a few days back.
Resending it for your reference.
http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.com/search/label/JNSAR
Thanks Golfdude.
NIFTY Intraday update : CLICK HERE
@Ram Charan: I think he wants HHema - Hlema trade based on JNSAR
if nifty sustains above mid BB in weekly, pls connect all the dots from all the highs and trendline comes to 5100 app.
Yes sir! .. how to combine the HrEMA data wid JNSAR, tats my Q ?? :-)
rgds
@ps,
Good point. My backtest shows such gap ups/downs
generally work out 50/50. Meaning, it seems to work
on your favor also. Also note that whenever there are
such huge gaps ups which go against you, reversing
immediately has helped in offsetting the losses one
could have. Eventually trading is about the results
over a longer timeline and it seems to be doing ok.
Well, as much as subscribing to a third party service and better than an FD :)
Shiram: i think you need to work on it and share it with us :) nobody has done it here.
All the best!
@shriram,
There are plenty of links on JNSAR that sir's
comments have repeatedly alluded to. A lot of folks
here trade only JNSAR and are very successful.
I trade both on different timeframes. I also use
EW to see if I can get approx targets to get out. And
all that is part of my money management.
There are no guarantees with any system.
Lunch...
http://farm7.static.flickr.com/6146/5920886407_dd00cdb1ea.jpg
Thanks v much for ur replies GD & Ram
rgds
Prabhakar
sweetu missing?
Mkt not falling by more than 15 points till morng.
Shiram;
NOt tested Hourly System with Day JNSAR.
But tested with Day HEMA - HLEMA System
for direction/Trend
This gives better results over long term.
avoiding trades with loss.
For last 6 mths, it gave App. 20% Less trades
with 20 % More profit.
I not started trading it. BuUt will soon start to do it.
Same principal can be uses for Day JNSAR
instaed of HEMA -LEMA ie. for identification of trend.
AND Trade only direction trend.
Thanks
@ Hitendra
Sujatha ji and DR sir both are sitting on Buy truck, fully loaded
with NIFTY.....:)
Hitendra
Why u want it to fall? :D
Nifty is nr area of 4960/75 as explained by Sir.
Intresting zone & strength to be determined........
As per EW, the 3rd wave can never be the smallest. So "v"th wave can not be more than 181 points.
So a correction should start from 4960-75 zone.
It could reverse from 4960-75 or it could continue to move higher.
10.09 AM
ok so... if u see @ 12:00 noon
Hr HEMA : 4929 , hr LEMA : 4908
& Hr Close : 4957 (which is >> Hr HEMA)
So, my first Q is : as per hrEMA system we carry LONGS , but where to book profits?
rgds
Hitendra
Ask Sujathaji and DR sir to book part profits so that Nifty
may come down by 70-100 points.....:)
@DR Sir:
Special sweets after lunch..
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ErVl7CfQDAA/TvrAYwGLLzI/AAAAAAAAAzk/XikywBY1xpw/s1600/IMG_0829.JPG
main Wari Main Wari Meri
on JNSAR
kothe uthe kothra ne samiye
kothe uthe kothra ne samiye
kothe tappe tandoor ne samiye
ghin ghin laavan puur ne samiye
Khavaan wala door ne samiye
Sami meri waar
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrzaFT9i0PA
hello friends
on day chart, i can see negative divergence on stochastic
indicator (5,3,3 setting). can anybody confirm the same please
regards
@gd,
not only gap ups/downs i was talking abt big hourly candles like one in 16/12/11 was 125 points.
no doubt the system is good as its based on sound
logic.
once u increase volume then it becomes challenging.
that is why i asked do u trade the system?
Ga all
Will nifty score a century today ??
resp ilango sir view on tcs
jayant singh
You snatched my wordssssssss
@parimal
its there since 10 jan
@shriram,
Updated HHEma-HLEma system link on taking profits. Nothing new though.
Dear Piyush sharda
thanks for confirmation.
mm.. if at all US MARKETS do not spoil the "bull party" all is well or else "all is not well" for asia remember they are coming "after a long week end". profit booking advisable as per Sir;s view.
Yes, Master mentioned 4960-75 to be resistence levels or even reversal levels.. Never know.. It may be good to part books longs now.
A green opening in Europe may have nifty touch 5000 today itself or max by tomorrow.
@ps,
I do trade the system ( although my trust level is still
low ). For example I took profits in the 4800s based on HHEma-HLEma and am
completely out. I went short at 4870+ because of c=a
criteria. So I am fighting my own demons on trusting
the system completely. As ilango sir has said repeatedly,
it is all about YOU - nothing really about the market.
The "Jesse Livermore" quote in Sir's blog comes and bites
me again and again and again. And I still dont learn. I am
my biggest enemy.
But by posting here, I am hoping some disciplined folks
might benefit.
Bear Prayer - OMG OMG Nifty should not cross 4977 and sensex 16500. will he listen to me??
If it crosses decesively 4950/5K then govinda govinda the whole scenario will change "then it's not dead cat bounce" :P again to workout time??
@Sujatha Ma'm: Mkts always behave the opposite of what we think. I am not sure that it may listen to any bears this month.. Momentum & an anticipated CRR cut by jan 24th is keeping it afloat. Also, big brother is showing bullish signs. mkts may cross 5k mark either today or tomorrow. Also look at the addition in 4900 PE with price reduction.
Dineshji one boundry needed.
Afternoon Everybody,
Got Lightening Call from a friend... Nifty trading above
4960.. so returned home...to join family function celebration.....
Rising wedge fails when "impulsive action" is seen in its final phase.
The rising wedge channel top being at 4950. A filter of 20 points may be allowed.
But it is clearly evident that "Weekly TA" is asserting itself now.
gd ,
in trading we all are continuously fighting the demons in us. :-)
Another clue for traders to remember is:
Market went thru R3 effortlessly and took support there(4948)last hour and still climbing higher. This could only mean "Sub-dividing waves" in the iiird wave.
Could anyone give the Monthly R1 Value? Please.
Its 4972 Dear Prabakar..
@ ILLANGOJI
IF 0.80 % 4986 CROSS THAN NIFTY CAN GO HIGHER & UP TO
WHAT LEVEL ?
4941 is 100 DMA .Seems any correction can occur only below that.Otherwise its Govinda Govinda.
Namaste Ilango sir and all,
Hour chart update:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-BZA7-oHV5J4/TxUiuJWDKbI/AAAAAAAABOA/HgQJkGEcAws/s1600/17+Jan+Hr+bar+ABCD.bmp
Dear Mynac,
Thanks.
it seems this will act as resistance today! Let's wait and watch.
highest PUT OI 75 lacs at 4700 PUT with premium 7.20. could there be chance for the put writers to cover here(atleast partially) or will they wait till 0
Who is selling at 4970 ... Looks like Sujatha is offloading
in truck loads :D :D :d
If you are using Odin Client Ver 10.0.02 then by entering Ctrl+E will export live data into Excel.
New Post Done.
BRIAN MARBER's views on deadcat bounce and experts
This is a golden piece (IMO) you'll find in one of he's books where he writes about trend ;
___________________________________ ___________________________________
The most egregious human failing to extrapolation of the trend: let any trend go on long enough and everyone expect the odd chartist (and I do mean odd) refuses to believe it will ever change. Accordingly, after, often long after the bear market has actually grounded, they all carry on as before, standing aside or selling short.
I am certain you've all heard of dead cat bounce (an old and famous stock-pattern. Go here if you're unfamiliar with it); what the early months of a major upswing are inevitably called by the "experts" pontificating in newspaper, brokers' offices and on TV. Experts don't have to be right, of course, merely to have sound, usually fundamental and invariably intellectual reasons when they have been getting it wrong.
As for the bouncing dead cat, eventually those same experts who have been pronouncing its repeated death realize that particular pussy isn't bouncing but pouncing:moggy transmogrified into bull. Dead cats don't bounce; they lie on the floor getting smelly.
Sometimes, indeed, oft times, I wish the experts would lie down with them. If you lie down with dogs you get fleas, that's for sure, but with dead cats, experts have an advantage: most already have fleas.
Traders can't believe their bad luck when seeing price rise for a change. They just keep selling short. Finally, however, when they have cut their last losses on short positions and graduated to long ones, a trading mentality prevails; short-term long positions are the order of the day/week/month.
That is the main reason why the market keeps on going up; a profit is snatched; "I'll buy on the fall" is the cry. Do you think the market doesn't know that's what they're trying to do ? Of course it does; the market knows everything, despite having no eyes, ears or brain.
What the market does have is an eloquent mouth and it pays to listen to what it saying, not tell it what it ought to do. The market can't hear what experts are saying is right for it to do: it doesn't have morals; and it doesn't care. It does what it wants; and when it wants to do it.
Scalpers, attention;
The scalpers and day-traders eventually realise that if only they'd stayed with their original positions taken at the start of the bull market instead of hoping to make a franc or two, get out and in again, they'd be better off, and certainly have slept more soundly.
Of course, the way they would have missed the feelings of machismo so loved by traders; to say nothing of the bottles of bubbly. Or should that be Champoo ? Either way, eventually, they get the message: it's bull market, so let's be in for the long-term.
They are then joined, rather later, by the short-sellers for the Dead Cats Bounce Parade: Yes, even they decide this kitty is pretty, and go for a bull-shot. The man-in-the-street, then comes to the same opinion and, trying to avoid being run over by the man on the Clapham omnibus, climbs aboard.
Then the worrying start. Bull markets climb a wall of worry. Why ? That's human nature. Eventually, however, that good ole boy, Ext-rap-o-lation, joins the party, which, he says, will last forever.
_________
Century Done !!!
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