In the opening session, the downtrend continued to assert itself and Nifty drifted lower despite its attempt to move above Day pivot-4642.
Once it reached 4588, the hour TA showed the first glimpse of "intraday changes" with a hour close near the highs.Subsequent drops became small retracements and Nifty closed near day's high and above DLEma.
Holding above 4590, it could attempt to break past the channel. How high it could go...So far only the Hour TA has confirmed a ST reversal. It is yet to affect the day/ week TA.
If no reversal takes place in this month, January may show a deep cut.
9 comments:
@ FIRE
Thanks for your kind words. But I would like to confirm once again I am still a student of EW and to reach the level of your appreciation I am atleast 5 to 6 years away from now.
I would like to share the following:
Label 'a / x ' ANALYSIS
As of now the above is valid. But as you mentioned, it may be ‘x’ and at the same time there will not be
any more sub division of ‘x’ since ‘x’ as already completed as flat or triangle @ 4800. Refer to labeling done by Illango Sir for the last one week and it will clarify why I conclude that ‘x’ is already complete. If that being the case then we need to shift to ‘a’ which I understand as follows:
Wave ‘a’ = 4531 to 4801 = 270
Wave ‘b’ = 4801 to 4588 = 213
Wave ‘c’ = 4588 to ? = can be 38% week ’c’ or 62% or 100% and so on. In such a case, by considering the previous legs, one is constrained to think the whole movement is irregular correction from 4640 to 5100 (a) 5100 to 4531 (b) the (c) is under progress. Since the previous leg has not cross 4820, which is earlier fall starting point, the possibility of (c) is ruled out. Normally, market always gives advance signal for the future movement. If market crossed 4820 that could have been presumed as advance signal. But remember this is not a rule. It is purely based on my observation. Market always gives advance signal about impending moves. In our case this is missing. Hence I feel, ONLY ‘x’ is the only option @ 4800. But I am not totally ruling out ‘a’.
Suppose ‘a’ continues to hold and terminates as irregular Flat some where near 5100. Then down side movement will be severe. When we do labeling, it is better we give importance to surrounding area of the price movement as well as factors that affects the market. Do you think Euro problem is solved? Do you think first 1st Quarter results of India Inc. will be good as per market expectation?.
Somebody ,among our blog mates, good in fundamental analysis will be able to contribute in this regard.
Method of Deduction and Wave ‘x’
Now, one is constrained to give more weight to Label ‘x’ and accordingly the present down movement can be labeled as ‘a of E’ which is 213 points and it may move upward to complete ‘b of E’, say @ 4720 the golden ratio. So accordingly ‘c of E’ may terminate some where near the trend line supporting area.
It may be around 4430 with tolerance limit of 10 points. In this scenario the following are worth to keep it mind.
Wave ‘a of E ‘ = 4801 – 4588 = 213 No. of Days = 5 approximately
Wave ‘b of E’ = 4588 - 4720 = 132 No. of Days = 5 or more days or 4760 as 80% retracement.
As per the above analysis, market may trade in the range of 4590 to 4720 or to the maximum of 4760. Only after achieving the target of 4720 / 4760, the down side movement will take place to complete ‘E’
Is there any possibility lower than 4430 after achieving 4720 / 4760 ?
Yes. The possibility exists as of now. Since that is a scenario which may happen after cracking the Trend Line support area, let us keep it aside for a while since it is not going to help us to make money in the present week.
CONCLUSION:
Upside target is locked at 4760. If this is crossed then upside target near to 5100 or more is opened, which in my opinion has lesser chance.
Dear Ilango,
Thanks.
The new addition /modification in Tech Table (Developing M,W JNSAR) here is very useful and has increased it's original value in multiples now.
Some how, earlier it was overlooked by me. So missed it…
Dear Jayaraman,
Confession first: I am dumb in EW, as it is not “my” subject :)
But as you said in
"CONCLUSION:
Upside target is locked at 4760......"
There is one observation for the same.
Nifty has it’s highest “intra-day” cash turnover in whole 2011 is on 30th Nov.2011 only & it was Rs.11, 393.13 Cr. & prices for the same for that day was Nifty O.4766.15, H 4851.55 L 4754.80 C 4832.05.
The previous day close then for Nifty was 4805 & as it was lifted from 4754 by Bulls then, it straight way went up to 5100 in next just 4 trading days.
If this observation is useful in your counting then just have a look please.
on weekly charts nifty is in 4th wave up..3rd completed at 4531
and the ew resistance is 5188 and the down wave target for 5th is 4280
.nifty in down move so we can not count it as a b c..3 waves which is wrong
and the rt way is to count 5 waves downward and weeekly show it perfectly.
if we see the nifty with sir R N Elliot's eye..he said simply that
up wave in 5 parts and down wave in correction in 3 parts..now his
phd followers complicated all things and the ew studies made so complicated
that new commer ran away from it.if we apply simply 5 wave structure to
nifty than we can see 3rd wave ending at high of 2007 every one is
accepting this. now see the weekly chart..the low of 2009 2230
is clearly the 4th corrective ending and 5th up completed in oct-dec 2010...
now i have seen many with the a as high of dec and b with low of recent as a part of 4th corrective
. is iy possible the so much run for 4th wave..apply simple 2=4 and see.and today
seen one comment from the iitian saburi mr pankaj shukla...today
he might have made the good and correct point that the recent low
as big XX....YES..from this years low...new wave count from one will start.
Hi mynac
GE. I am "double dumb" in EW :) :) but me too hv that target with CAM + FIBO combo. Fire's target is mouth watering @ this juncture. Anyway "during live mkt hrs" only the practical way to think.
by the way "who wants sweet dreams" "pour more sugarin your eyes" and go to sleep and who wants "masala dreams"??? will post tomorow "the receipe" get ready :D
@Mynac,
Your observation also indicates that 4760 is the
target and if it is broken then upside target is
possible to 5100 level.
1. I am of the opinion market may (? ) cross 4800 only
after correcting to 4430.
2. If market goes beyond 4800 from the current level,
then there will be a severe correctoin.
I am discussing about immediate movements.
Namaste Ilango Sir & Blogmates,
New year, atleast the Bulls could get a positive close, can they hold on; Option Analysis for 02-01-2012
Duplicated at Wordpress Site
Thanks & Regards,
Sanjay Kr Jaiswal
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