Formation of patterns at critical junctures should add to your convictions and make you confident to take those minimum steps such as "booking out" , if not the aggressive trades.
1. JustNifty TA(31st Jan)
Monday, January 30, 2012
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13 comments:
Thank you Ilango sir .
Turnover is ver low for kind of fall we had from fiis. Only 77000 crore?
looks like a bear trap to me
To me it looks like a irregular correction in wave 'b' of 4th wave especially if you go by the future levels. Considering spot values 'a' of this was from 5217 to 5163 i.e. 54 pts.'b' was irregular and went upto 5212 and taking 261.8& of 'a' works out to 141 pts and 5069 for 'c' to end. Today's low was 5076
Whether Nifty shall take support around this level or not? Don’t know, but just have a look @ 20th & 23rd Jan Nf close. It’s 5077.55 & 5077.40 respectively & have highest O.I. addition of the series i.e. 53 lac & 33 lac on that day & 5077 is today’s cash low.
Huge deletion in NF O.I. i.e.approx.19 lac , negligible O.I. deletion in 5100 PE & hardly 200 Cr.FII cash selling looks interesting here.
Namaste Ilango Sir & Blogmates,
Bulls go up the stairs and Bears, well they use the Elevator, changed the look in a single day; Option Analysis for 30-01-2012
Duplicated at Wordpress Site
Thanks & Regards,
Sanjay Kr Jaiswal
Hi all those who have been sitting out just "Blog Walking" as Mr.prabhakar said today all of us are going to get the chance of getting on the JNSAR train hopefully tomorrow itself wishing all a happy and profitable journey ahead.
...and for all those who are waiting to take up the JNSAR trade please be ready for whipsaws. The more the whipsaw... more the fun!
Also please keep an eye on the month JNSAR for Feb along with day and week.
Please remember that it is also possible that JNSAR is whipsawed and NS close above JNSAR which would imply continuation of the long position. I am just laying out the possibilities.
after buying thousands of crores in Jan, FII cash sell today was only 200 cr.
Bear trap. Many waiting on sidelines to buy aggressively
Trade Plan for 31st Jan.2012
a= 5217 - 5163 = 54
b= 5163 - 5212 = 49
c= 5212 - 5077 = 135(262% of 'a' works to 5070)
As of now Wave 'c' is completed by fine tuning the intra day movement. Hence initiate Long @ current level with stop Loss Price of 5060. When market moves from 5077 to upward direction it is advisable to follow trailing stop loss for a target of 38%, 50%, 62% 78% of the fall from 5217 - 5077 = 140
38% = 53
50% = 70
62% = 87
78% = 109
Since Today candle formation just touched few points of previous day candle it may be early signal that market is poised for major correction. Tomorrow candle will confirm or negate this formation. Hence if we take long position it is advisable to trail the Stop Loss and exit the trade appropriately.
Also the possibility of market trading between 5070 to 5200 in sideways for couple of days before touching 5340 (which is 5070 + 270 = 5340)is not ruled out. Note this
synchronizes with yesterday analysis of Wave 'D' of one larger degree with the possible target of 5340.
CONCLUSION
Trade set up exists @ current level or at 5070 with Stop Loss Price of 5060. Hence initiating long at current level with Strict Stop Loss Price of 5060. Exit the trade by following stop loss price as per Fibonacci ratio worked out in the above analysis.
NOTE
If market trades below 5070 I am of the opinion that market entering into major correction towards 4610.
If market trades above 5070 for couple of days then I am of the opinion that market will touch 5340.
All blogmates
Note two things one 5 days EMA
next previous candles high (to keep this negative bias)
closing is imp
Simple and easy
yesterday sell signal was at when previous candle low that is 5162 broken.
also candlestick pattern was bearish.
In my view; It was aggresive sell. as JNSAR was not triggered.
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