Thursday, March 4, 2010

Nifty PreMarket View

Nifty is getting into highly "Overbought zone" in the hourly time frame.
This stretching will require some corrections which could come after an initial upmove and in a sideways fashion too.
Certain divergences that appear are part of a "third wave" which are ineffective and one should wait for more reliable negative divergences to appear. Until then, any selling that is done after initial rise should be covered for small gains only as rotational buying seem to be going on which will keep the index afloat.
Stay with the trend and the market rewards you well...
Happy trading.

47 comments:

A J said...

@ilango
I was working last night on EW calculator...I am done with price retracements calculation...but got stuck with time aspects....
Can you give me the link for typical time duration of each wave?
and also ...what is a common time length of ABC corrective wave with respective to Impulse(12345)wave?...
I cannot find proper common ratios for ABC wave ....both price and time...
Can you tell me where to search?
Cheers

A J said...

Hi Ilango and blogmates
Good morning to all
Ilango please reply to my above question ...waiting
Cheers

Ilango said...

hi..Anuj,

I read your two comments and was wondering about the time aspect. I have no definite answer as corrections are the complex kind that in a fast rising market, the impatient market will outrun itself. And in an "indecisive mood", it will doe double & triple three and spend more time. This is the tricky part. If there is in any way it could be coupled with certain TA readings(slower types of macd or stochastics), it could help.

Finally to answer to you, take the golden ratio of 0.618 and as an alternative 1.3812 times the previous impulse.

Good luck to your work.

Best regards.

ilango

Ilango said...

hi..Anuj,

Google search for the following:
time calculations for elliott waves

You will get quite a lot of material.

A J said...

@Ilango
Thanks
I read ...
1)that Corrective wave B is 50% of Wave A in time
2)wave A and Wave C are mostly of same time duration
Is it safe to assume the abve 2 points?
Can you also tell what is the approximate time relation of ABC wave with respect of 12345 impulsive wave?
For example if impulsive wave (12345) lasts for 10 days....how long(approximately) wave ABC will last ?(how much in percentage terms)
Cheers

Paresh said...

Surprising up/down/both movements expected today, i'm stuck with 4900 PE..

Prabhakar said...

GOOD MORNING ILANGO SIR AND ALL BLOG MATES.

ashok said...

gm sir and all the blogmates'
@Ananda sir
Why r u in double state of mind u also view the mkt as well as we u r givig us your suggestions which r grt most of the time it is upto us whether we follow it & earn profit or not .
So plz don't think otherwise.
regards

arpitg345(gauresh) said...

GOOD MORNING ILANGO SIR AND ALL BLOG MATES.

Piyush Sharda said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Piyush Sharda said...

sir yesterday in 9 hrs rsi only there was negative divergences and not in 26-12 macd and 5-15 macd. as as we know it failed shorts had no opportunity. pls elaborate which will be more reliable divergence which we can use for better signals

Prabhakar said...

Dear Ilango Sir,

As per Pivot table, Stop & Reverse 4965. I think below 4965 we have to exit our holding long and go short at same level. Am I correct Sir. OR wait for your confirmation for CONSERVATIVE SHORT. Any body can clarify.

Thanks

Rajagopal said...

Faster than Fairies
Faster than Witches - over
Hedges and Houses
Ditches and Drains
Goes the Train....

Hon'ble RM Mamta Didi without any fanfare flagged of a new train called NIFTY Express. (Railway's was the first budget). Clapped on by the Hon.FM and fuelled by FII diesel and DII electricity the train is chugging non stop with least respect to all signals.
Oh !!! Look at that - the guard of the train is waving both the flags at the same time from the Guard room in the train.
A Chill runs through my spine !!! The guard is a known face...you know who?
Beware innocent retailers when you cross the unmanned level crossing.

Good Morning Ilango and all friends.

Anandan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anandan said...

Hi, Guys,
As Indicated..see downside on...
Infosys,Tata Motors, Hindalco, IDEA, MUL,L/T,TCS,HCL Tech,
& see Still showing UP on .DLF, RIL, MLL,RNRL,TTML, IFCI,...
so BOOK profits..
Anandan.R

u.k.Raj said...

GM to ALL

ORB 5071-5084 is it right sir?
Opening reading needed sir.

Sandip Pal said...

GM ALL

Ilango said...

hi..GM to all.

ORB 5093.10 to 5071.35

(NF High Low is 5079 to 5064).

Keeping 5093 as SL Sell for intraday

manu said...

sir & to all "panta /nikara"
gm
thnx raja fr ur call

manu said...

sir
ur critics view on $ index and trade..

Viren said...

GM all

Babu said...

Sir,
can we use this dip as buy?

Viren said...

VAH- POC- VAL
5074-5062-5050 ...Nifty
9034-9022-9000 ...Bank Nifty

Move by the buers to take market up initially has not been successful. Action now at POC....

KGovind said...

Sir,

Wave iii started at 4912 on Friday. So if peak at 5125 in this wve, then can we not expect atleast 38.2% retracement. Around 80 pt correction to 5045. Matches your range. But if correction was more than 38.2% then what?

Ilango said...

hi..Babu,

5020-5040- is a first minor support zone. More reliable ones will be at the rising 5-ema.

hi..manu,

No clear views on $.
After a sell off from 81.35 to 79.85, it is reacting upwards. SO that is the decisive range.

I think "Viren's" 5062 & 5050 will provide a temporary halt. Break..5025-5000.

Anonymous said...

hi ilango
hi friends
positive strength in nifty buy on dips do not short
buy 5061 nf
sl-5030

arpitg345(gauresh) said...

Sir,
I have downloaded Amibroker and added 5EMA, 20EMA as well as 5EMA(High/Low) indicators as per Marketcall Blog. The software shows the buy and sell signals, what time period one should keep ...? 3 minutes or 5 minutes or more ...?
Can anybody guide in this line?

-aprit

satheesh said...

Good morning ilango sir and all.

Viren, the VAH VAL values are of NF am I right?

ANINDYA BANERJEE said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ANINDYA BANERJEE said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Mr rajnish

don't come here to give fake calls

intra trend is down.ilango sir given sell call
we follow ilango sir

Prabhakar said...

Hi Babu!

ANINDYA BANERJEE said...

This my first commnet so I would like to congratulate on an informative blog that you have created. As per my wave count on nifty, I believe the orthodox top for nifty occured at 5182 on 20/10/2009. Since then Nifty is tracing out an expanded flat correction( 3-3-5 formation). A and B of that is done with a 3-3 formation, now C is just 1/3 complete, with sub waves 1 over but 2 in the process of getting over and 3-4-5 yet to go. Therefore, a price projection for C can be had from either of these two calculations: 161.8% of A from the top of B or 61.8% of A from the bottom of A. I would appreciate your comments on the same.

Sunil Sehgal said...

Arpit,

As Ilango follows 1 hourly chart so use time frame as 1 hour on charts.

Sunil

Anonymous said...

ANINDYA

161.8%
please mention values to novice like me can understand

Piyush Sharda said...

+ divergences in nifty 5 min. sir waiting for reply on my earlier question

Viren said...

Yes sathhesh future values

Piyush Sharda said...

viren sir's axis bank rocking.................

ANINDYA BANERJEE said...

Kumaran,

161.8% from top of B takes nifty down towards 4270 and 61.8% from bottom of A takes it to 4140. However, in some rare cases C can extended to 261.8% from top of B, i.e, 3627.

A J said...

@arpitg
Are you using that utility which marketcall blog mentioned yesterday?(manshiRT)...
How is it?...can you use PIB(power india bulls) data with that ? Which Operating system is required?...I am using windows XP SP 2 will it work on that ?
Try to use 1 mins chart (you will be easily able to see HH and HL....LH and LL patterns...easy for trend identification....combine it with higher time frame....5 mins 0r 15
It depends on your style of trading style
Read about multiple time frames in Alexander Elders book ...Come into my trading room
Cheers

satheesh said...

Viren correct me if i am wrong, If NF sustains below the VAL then it is a short with stoploss of POC or VAH. then what could be considered as the support level below VAL?

Piyush Sharda said...

anuj sir do u have a pdf version of the book . it is not freely avaviable in my town.pls send on piyush_sharda@rediffmail.com

A J said...

@piyush sharda
try 4shared .com

http://search.4shared.com/network/search.jsp?searchmode=2&searchName=come+into+my+trading+room

Cheers

Ilango said...

NEW POST DONE

u.k.Raj said...

Dear Ilango
Hourly closing is below HR 5EMA 5071.
So we can hold our intra shorts.

Viren said...

Sathesh,

First support comes at 5041, then 5024 and 5001.Open new shorts only below 5041, with strict SL as today's VAL.

Unknown said...

arpit which version you have downloaded amibroker is it free plz tell me

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