"Broken out and moving up in the 5th wave.. 25% shorts at 5280 - 5305..
Still Confined to a narrow consolidation - ...5205 - 5240...
Retracement strategy, a must for traders.
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor...
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I 'll always be there for you. To make you feel that you're secured. And even if the rain is pouring hard and the sky is almost dark... -
5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ... -
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor...
47 comments:
Mr.Ilango,
If 5245 is taken,i beleive we can hold longs..
Ilango sir, as per your table, nifty spot has closed at 2pm at 5221 below even LOW 5ema of 5222, is it a first sign of weekness? can i hold my nifty futures short 5251 for tomorrow?
"5240" is the channel top for this hour. And it keeps coming down..
@raja,
it seems your "thursday thumb rule" will oblige today..
respected Illango sir ,
sir pl. give views bout banknifty ....i am long from 9215 .....should i exit or can wait for any upmove you see
regards
vikram
i lango sir
the probable intra day rally upto 5285-95 wud be a sure short opportunity for sell to rise on positional basis for a minm target of 5150-5125 within 3-4 days since expiry days around, please comment and elaborate with proper levels
thanking u
@ Vikram,
Stay long in Bank Nifty for higher targets.
@ rochak,
That is the general idea and you have it already. Now we need to see whether market traces that path..or deviates..
respected blogmates
any view on my long in banknifty @9215
regards
thanks very much Illango sir
i m holding banknifty now for higher targetts
regards
@Rajagopal
My money is on what i say,but i am hedged against my own convictions always as a rule .(small insurance to pay for your speculations)
RV9 - feel you are secure. Haven't learnt to hedge. Will seek your views through mail. Must start it.
Aarvee,
Good OI analysis.
Just to add...
5200CE and 5300 CE are not reducing yet, even as OI addition is happening aggressively at 5200 and 5300 by put writers.So we may see more of today's tape at least till Monday, before writers decide what to do with their open positions.So bullish but slow up movement.
RV9, rajaG
2 contrarian traders, but 2 great traders ...
nice to see the pun + stuff in your discussions today :)
well rajgopal sir, just few thoughts not enuf form and shape to mail . but will mail u. wrote a similar post yesterday evening.
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this blog is a classroom and class 1-10 sit here. ( thats a problem but i dont know what to do) like in a classroom ur marks count nothing else matters much. here what wud count u can well understand.everything written is not good.
my heart knows i am in class 1 ( marks and knowledge both). frontbenchers also sleep in class and dont get caught also.
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i need to do much more work to write constructively abt ur table. hopefully in next few days i'll do it.
i lango sir
please guide
wanna short nifty heavily today if comes in the range of 5285-95, please advise , is it correct move and also provide me a Sl
thanks
sir
babu asked
Ilango Sir,
A small doubt, why you haven't given short call on Unitech with sl @75.75? for conservative trade.
same question?
@manu, i went short at 74.50
Piyush - I am an emotted,trigger happy trader. Just in the "zone" hit it batter. But better to learn defense and technique when I am scoring. Will help in a bad patch. Observing you to be much saner and suitably confused about positions. Sleeping students don't ask doubts. So you are not sleeping.
So Dear Aarvee,Piyush and Mok you are in for some caberet performance from Rajagopal in your mail box.
@babu
book profit
it will nt gv time(water) nw..
Mr.Raja,
If you don’t mind, please add this sleeping student also in your mailing list(rrkrsn@gmail.com)..whatever caberet performance you throw to mok,RV9 and piyush..same to me also..:)
And finally +ve Thursday ..lol
@manu,
yesterday only i booked short profit in unitech, did short @77, booked at 73.95. Its Inflation time, RBI may act. So taking risk.
@ Rajagopal
Market has long ago taught me the price to have strong convictions,and believe me they were very costly tutions .so the hedge part,to speak out loudly.
ex.i enjoy range bound markets.have happened for 4-7 days four times in last three months.
firstly they tell u the range
second, u are sure of big breakout/down.
so by hedging your capital u can play for big gains,
say this week we knew that range is 5100-5160.
i was in favour of longs(many indicators,i wrote to sir too),i sold the futures where sir said at 5135 with s/l of 5168 (last high)and was sure for atleast150 point move so bought 5400 calls on mon-tues (at rs 1.0to rs 1.5 range),once it broke the range, covered my futures at s/l negative 33points and covered the call yesterday at avg. of rs.5.75 ,more than five fold gains.
sometimes big daddy gives you pocket money or forgets his purse on the table .
@ babu
in beta stocks spl. sometimes vol of trade is more and crosses btw the trigger price and price..if u use neat thn it does nt happen..
Another Chart uploaded for more clarity..
Going towards 5275 - 5300..
RV9,
hi, i always wanted to tinker into hedge, but was told by many one cant go about hedging each day else the hedging cost + time decay may eat into negatives.
your writeup is very simple practical and thought provoking.
plz give some more sitings on how you approach it positionally, btst, etc.
also, plz try to narrate again the said 5400call hedge, what quantity 5400call @1.50 for 1lot nifty. Thanks.
ps: you do it after EOD
RV9 - i am the original Begger. Please think of a plan of action for hedging. Thank you very much for sharing the trade against your own habit.
rajaG
how did you manage the short, average & exit or still holding ?
@mok,
My hedge was selling the futures as they were against my convictions,buying 5400 ca was my bet this week.
say u wanna bet rs 25000/-
convinced that range breakout will be 100-150 points loaded with calls worth 25000 (in the range of say avg.rs 1.5 i.e.16,600 calls)
then u short futures and if u go wrong to get back atleast the capital bet on,so short 4lots i.e. 200nifty at 5135 to be covered at 5020 or so that will give back approx,rs.23,000
now range breaks
1. ur s/l hits and gives aloss of 33 points i.e.ra 6600 negative
2.breakout comes to 5260,(ioo points),resists, u cover ur call at avg 5.75 i.e.rs 95,000 approx.
3. less 6600 u have a clean profit of say 90,000.
in two trading sessions.
4.this is an example,the sum involved may have been larger,ha ha ha
wow, RV9, how many people i have asked ...
now you have put it across so plain & palatable,
thanks a lot for adding this very important weapon of first [&last] aid. I have been taken aback by many gapup/downs. And i am mainly positional. This would help tremendously.
yep yep yep,,, thats a nice novelty profit of 90000+++?
thanks man.
@ Rajagopal,
thanks for pointing out the habit(even my wife says so),i also have a habit of replying to specifics when asked only ,so replied to mok.(still the egoist brat,hunh---)
i am a positional trader, take only one or two bets a week,my quota is full this week so that enough time on hand,hence the planets, trades,footprints , God and all the stuff.i enjoy the company of u all dear.
@aarvee9
What if, say market turned from the point you shorted and never moved up?
So, say your short 5135 could take you to 5000 (say) ... thereby 135 * 200 - 25000 = 24500.
So instead of cutting your short why don't you go down? Would like to get your view plz?
I also follow the same ... but can never understand when to close one side of the trade?
Rgds.
Thanks RV9, take care. have a good day.
Now, Mr Ilango expects 5280 5305 anyway. And am glad I keep the budget time longs still.
Hai
Good evening ilango sir and blog mates
i am a new visitor to your blog and let me thank ilango sir and others who are doing a wonderful job of helping new traders.
I need some help with the TATA MOTORS CALL options(march) 800 strike that i have purchased today. i saw a break out in the 5 minutes chart. can any one confirm a descending triangle break out in the 5 minutes chart
thank you
SANJANA
@mok -
newbie here. Congrats on your 54000 trade. Question - how abt commissions ? Not sure how much it is for 16,600 calls ? I pay 70Rs/option ( ouch ). Any cheap F&O broker ?
Thx
gd
dear aarvee9,
what happens if nifty remains rangebound? for a little larger time.
what i wanted to point was, How does u counter the effect of time decay when u buy such amounts of options?
i m not against you/ur idea.
but i think Idea of hedging is for Big monies, not for traders like us.
and Hedging means to protect ur accumulated profit & not right from the start of trade.
I think best way to trade range bound mkt is selling options.
probability of profit is above 90%
Dont take if from bluntly - check urself.
@ rajib
dear u should always have stop losses in place
like i was willing to take a loss in nifty futures for rs.6600 to gain rs.95000.conversely put s/l in the call side if the trade goes wrong.
sir had clearly mentioned that if range breaks target is 5020 (if i remember correctly),so u cover your futures there and get rs.23ooo approx also even if u put s/l st half i.e.rs 0.75 in call side ,it comes to some 12000 rs. so net net u still end up positive.but i prefer to cut losses in call side as soon as range breaksdown against me since they are out of money and premiums may disappear very fast.
gd,
I was advised by a colleague in this blog on hedging. Its not MY hedging.
Commissions may go as low as 9 a lot. But then thats a future issue for me since I am not yet in hedging.
Thanks.
hi Kp [yogiconstruction VFM ?]
plz share with us your thoughts, it would be valuable.
thanks.
@kp
only answer to your question is that check the timing of the trade and check the premiums in the said call ,u will understand why i went for it.(it had reduced from rs.8 something to rs. 1.0 something,when market was rangebound)
for me selling call and put is a strict no no.for me writing is for big monies.
i said i trade on weekly basis or longer ,it gives me room for what i plan.
everybody has his style and comfort level.secondly not all trades go your way so first is to preserve capital.secondly if we are giving time in front of system we should be able to time it well.
buddy,i never take it bluntly but yes iam in a habit of giving it back as served.
your trading experience makes what u say.dont heresay ,i do it and write it,u should do the same and then share the experience.
thanks RV9
lets call it a day.
you have given lots insight to me today.
bye
@mok and others
bye ,and have a nice day
disclaimer:
i am not a trading guru,only a student of market.have made heavy losses in intial days of my trading and learnt some lessons the hard way.still learning--
doesnt like to be questioned except from people who share their experiences here and are trying to help others out.
rest may go to hell or to other forums and trade their ways.
RV9,
your plan for hedging is good. My only concern is the amount of brokerages and taxes will eat waway more than half of the notional profit of 90,000.
I am paying Rs. 50-55 total for one lot of option for the same day square-off. If I sell it next day of later the net cost of buying and selling one lot of option will be 100-110. This mean on an average Rs. 2 extra for all the transaction costs.
Now buying at 1.5 will actually cost 2.5. And the same way selling at 5.75 wil get you 4.75. Hence the net diffenrce (PROFIT ) will be 2.25*16600= 37350 !!!!
And the loss in short Nifty for 4 lot will be 20000 for chance of gain of 100 pooints.
Net net only 17350 profit.
May be some other combination may give better returns.
But still got good idea from you to work on other better combination.
Hi RV9,Mok - Just saw the your continued discussions.
Mok - u refer to my morning shot ? Scratched thro - paid the brokerage + . The 2.30 long helped.
Still RV9, must evolve a concrete Hedger - keeping in mind the white elephants we feed (our brokers - mine is a gem atleast carries the load).Will join late after dinner. Time for my walk.
@ Rajvada,
Please i request u to squeeze the balls( sorry!i meant brokerage)of your broker.not going into specifics the profit will only be eroded by 5-7% net after all brokerages & taxes.
@RV9,
What is the least brokerages+tax Per one lot of option for buying and selling next day, available ? I have been paying Approx Rs. 110 for last one year.
Any suggestions please?
Following this blog for a while, wished had done earlier. I am coming out of the slippery shores of "costly learnings" which RV9 has mentioned.
@RV9
Please guide. If we are reasonably certain that a range expansion could be of 100 to 150 points either way would it be an equally good alternate to place buy order above 5168 and sell order below say 5090. I am sure with your experience and expertise you would indeed have mulled over this, but still choose to go for long hedged strategy. your response will help us to learn for next time such range contraction happens.
@Rajvada
Option brokerage is not issue here, it is the ethos and the hedging strategy of RV9.
Brokerage can come as low as Rs 10 one side (not RK Global but others too). On a reasonable Rs 15 one side you pay under Rs 45 both buy sell with taxes and this is less than 0.9 point each trade.
SanDew
@Rajagopal
Your narration is poetry - keep it flowing.
And for yr penchant - may like to read this "Beware The Ides Of March" (Julius Ceaser) http://www.tradersnarrative.com/beware-the-ides-of-march-3822.html
Unable to post from office, do not know why?
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