Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Nifty heading into overhead resistances..

1. NIFTY Tech.Analysis File
2. Bank Nifty Analysis File


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2 comments:

sriganeshh said...

@Bala
Regarding FII positions.
1.very difficult to know clear trading position of FII because they follow complex trading strategies involving algorithmic trading process. They have direct market access.

2. Yes, it is easy for them to know @any point of time how many retail etc are long/short @ what levels to play because they employ research associates to do back office work.

3. Regarding your point "Why when FIIs are buying and DIIs are selling and vice vice versa." the answer is market.
Some of the mutual funds and domestic FI's are not buying this budget estimate of 8% and all that because they know indian political system whereas FII's are betting on india.

4.Regarding your other point -""Now doller index theory is no usefull. because doller is hogh but they are purchasing for example when nifty 4850 level all sai doller is 75 and if moves up nifty will come down like that but now doller is 80 why purchsing or expecting the doller to move up further and purchasing and if so if they expect 100 then nifty value. FIIS moving stocks then currency like that telling some theory. The rotation /relation /movement of market to market as now nifty is globalised, we have to find oput""

Just think. Dollar index is arrived at comparative strength of various currencies. not necessarily be against INR. Search wikipedia or google, u will get answer.
Further underlying instrument is currency and it is dependent on interest rate differentials
to major extent and other factors like GDP, Trade deficit, current account surplus, gold reserve position etc plays some role.
You have failed to correlate the RBI advance move of increasing CRR to 75 basis point which effectively came into effect from March 01 as Feb 26, i believe is the reporting friday for feburary month. The effect is playing after time lag now with interest differentials driving INR up. This is indicated in terms of yield on bonds firming up.
second, US also had indicated the increase in rates but the time lag effect is still to be played out.
Third, probably carry trade must have been over in USD and Yen may again start.
4. Probably some US long funds may be buying some of the fundamental strong stocks with a long term view as this funds have a time tenor of over 3 years. when there is USD inflow, lot of supply of USD etc etc....
Hope my info helps you out in your doubts...
best
sri

BALA said...

Sriganesh

Extremely thankful for the clarification,explanation.

@viren

In the blog some body put a question about how to interpret the volume digger charts. Have you put up any reply.

Thanks

Bala

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