And we are counting the 5th too...So do our American brothers.
Also I found some unusual weaknesses in certain stocks. I would require "price confirmations" in the coming days.
On the other hand, Market can correct this 5-waves upto 4960 and then resume its uptrend too. Earlier one a micro view and the latter macro.
In sum., though TA parameters are intact for the uptrend, the underlying is not so..
26 comments:
Dear Ilango,
Today Nifty gave a well stretched top 5271.90.Tried very hard to sustain above 5255 but failed badly. Looked at the final Nifty O.I. data and noticed that squaring off the positions have pulled down the market after 2.30p.m. Nifty O.I. decreased by 12.75lac which is significant.5300, 5200 PE added intraday 18.25lac and 15lac+ O.I. respectively. Now up to expiry it will be very interesting to see that how many more days bulls can keep the market so stretched so far. Addition in 5300 PE is surprising because at present it is far away from it and Nifty 5300+ is and will be dream for this expiry. Let us see tomorrow
sir
amazing observation..for fii net bought prov. 800 odd cr again..
plz update unitech ..
oh sir
i think so ur sl got it in unitech
i didnt checked and covered my hedges
plz ask ur critic for a view..
23 of the N-50 are in "bull" zone - 22 with +ve divergence (day). The day volume is more than 100% of the 5,14 and 30 day averages. Does it denote market confidence at higher price levels and possibility of more up-side?
Power failure happens in fully lit house !!!
I will have to tie the devil in me - no guts to take long position. Time to off-load. 4960 inviting 5300 threatening !!! No wonder my friend is always drunk.
The best indicator seems to be SmartMoney Movement, and best oscillator the FII action.
Unfortunately both seem to be Lagging indications.
:)
plz check if we have anything similar to:
http://www.wallstreetcourier.com/technician/timing-indicators/smart-money-indicator.htm
http://www.tradingsmarts.com/pivots.htm
http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2005/20050103.html
:)
with regards
@Rajagopal
Let me know which calculators you want...I have send a mail...I will send them on your mail...and later update my blog with modifiable version of all calculators...for research enthusiasts like you
Cheers
PS :Why are you entering TA...its not a nice place to be...you will be caught in this tech talk of overbought and oversold levels...your perimeter trading is just fine...rest is all your wish
Good luck
Don't mind sir, bt i think nifty seems to be in "NO LOOKING BACK" mode. Most probably it'll make a New high this expiry!
Thank you Anuj. I wish for RSI,Wave and Fibo.
Why TA...
Well I am honoured to have my name at the right top of the blog (yours is much below !!!) - ok back benchers get teacher's special attention. A DON is a dignified street thug & hence the infatuation with TA. Don't be surprised to find me behind the drunkard with my own copy of Ramayan.
Kindly forward the xls to my id.
Thank you.
hi anuj,
try making a workout on SmartMoneyFlow
with regards
sir
thnx fr updating..seems a close shave..
would be eager 2 knw that trades taken by u in unitech are cash or fut..
Hi Rajagopal...
All calculators sent..good luck in your research ..
@all
I will shortly update all links on my blog with modifiable version for people interested in research..people not familiar with excel should use the calculator version only(as it is made using original formulas and ratios... tweaking the formula never helps,I will tell you the reason in a blog post later)...so you will find both links in the blog
AJ
Hi mok
We all listen to Illango's advice....but miss out this all important one....he tell us to "follow the price"...
Leave this search for leading indicator...why?...although this indicator is good and very popular it will not help you in trading...y?...because it views institutional investor as one group that drives prices...fair enough...but what about retail panic?...that can take a form of giant tsunami and push prices down/up...If you hold futures positions you have to be very sharp with your plan(must follow Illango's plan.. table in stock wealth blog or create your own as per your trading profile)..when you trade futures you have to be absolutely sure when you will add or exit and not think like investors
However you should use this indicator if you are an investor...to gauge panic in market and buy stock with fundamental value
We need reliable data ...and this can easily be made...I feel ...but what's the need
Cheers(hope I have not disappointed you)
no Anuj, you have not disappointed, you bring in lots fresh air of thoughts.
I dont do much daytrade, but for scalp a little when i watch. Mostly i do positional.
Just wanted to share the pages I came across on SmartMoney. And, this smartmoney sways everything & bulldozes the market trend that sometimes overpowers everythingelse, current trend fundas TA wotnots.
And, that time I saw your post so I gave that suggestion since you experiment on calc.
Thanks a lot.
sir , we entred nifty at 5160 with negative divergence in daily and overbought.similarli we r luking to enter bank nifty in negative divergence and overbought.
pls correct if these observations r not true.
i feel for high probablity trades we need more tools than divergence with ob /os.pls comment on it
the ta files made by rajgopal,happy and sundar sir needs more tools .i feel to generate high probablity trades and profitable like u do
I am not abl to post in stock wealth blog the word verification is partially visible only
@mok,
I read sometime back that McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index is the short to Intermediate term indicator used popularly in US. Even that is failing in current circumstances as far as indian market...may be instead of comparing nymo (as given in stockchart) with nifty performance (see shai blog), if one really calculates the indicator taking advance decline figures of nse, some different scenario will come..
I feel market is little over stretched itself (though not technically as outlined by ilango sir but fundamentally considering the april and even june option open interest position, it is due for sharp correction to around 4955 and it should set in anytime...
if we see this for this expiry, rajagopal will be very happy....
sri
@piyush,
Today ET carries an article on banknifty.. traders creating short position on banknifty due to reasons....etc etc..
please go through the same
thanks sri,
I keep the lots from 4900 till now.
RajaG keeps dribling different lots different positional directions different series. He is great that way. I just wonder reversing since Ilango feels an impending saturation now, [since I dont sit on terminal everyday].
The 20ema- 20sma is also narrowing each day.
And I checked the ichi link you gave too.
with regards.
sriganesh,
thanks for reply. i read the article. but i didnt undersatand y u asked me to read it??
@mok,
am learning ichimoku with the help of umashji. I find it is basically MACD modified for trend trading.. colourful lines, clouds, crosses make it lively to read the market...ilango sir should post some ichimoku charts to make it more colorful...(ilango sir,pl consider my request)
@ raja
oh...u r there as my competitor then...very formidable and dynamic with military background...
just waiting when i will reach salem to get hold of all my books specially derivative materials so that can contribute more with inside analysis...
sri
@piyush,
seen ur comment on banknifty,,,
//similarli we r luking to enter bank nifty in negative divergence and overbought. //
thought of sharing the clip..nothing more.
you can ignore if it is irrelevant...
sri
Value areas for tomorrow:
Nifty-5256-5239-5235
BN -9215-9197-9185.
Sri,
On your comment on the NYMO, I do not think it failed.It worked off the overbought condition beautifully the day when in the overnight session the US futures dropped 15 points from 1050 to 1035.
I pointed it out to Shai as he was the one looking for a 15 point pull-back in the ES.It happened already and set the stage up for the move which we are now seeing.
@viren,
I fully agree with you..
what i was referring is comparative performance of nifty vis a vis nymo indicator (chart posted by shai) That triggered me to analyse the reason as that indicator is based on adv:dec, if we consider nse india stat, probably different scenario may emerge..
sri
Sri,
That chart was more of a sentiment indicator than an actual point to point comparison.
I get your point though about adv:dec.
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