Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Nifty's relief rally reaches 61.8%, has a cluster res. @ 6229-37 before dealing with 80%-6269.


Prabhanshu Raman said...

Point c of gartley pattern in formation? ?

Prabhanshu Raman said...

My feeling: It may gap up tomorrow above these cluster of resistance as exhaustion gap to reach near 80% 6269 and then reverse in a day or two to fill this gap. Invalidation point of this guess is nifty goes above 80% or not able to fill this gap within 2 days then this gap won't be considered as an exhaustion gap.

hardeep thakur said...

@Prabhanshu Raman,
What is the reason you are seeing gap up tomorrow? Global market is bleeding and rupees has lots almost all of it's day gain. Only thing look positive to me about NIFTY is it's closed above 61.8%.
Please don't take it otherwise, I'm not questioning about you feeling, but just want to understand how you come to this analysis so in future i can also be able to do same analysis if applicable.


Ding A Dong said...

Hi hardeep,

Your question is sensible as well as its limited towards your 2 considerations like Global cues & rupee factor.

Basically I strongly believe that Option Writers are the creators of GAPs to make their job easy as you can see the small amount that they use to create GAP in Pre market trades which is an easy way when it compared to managing markets against huge crowd during day trades.

That's what happened when nifty was near 6000 as 6000 PE with huge OI acting as a wall, GAP UP NEXT DAY.

Today was NR4 and NR7.
As sanjay mentioned above your post that 6200PE is added huge.
If we are at 5/c of 3 rd wave then it may force/support PE writers to Create one more GAP UP in Uptrend as running gap which may be filled later by making PE writers job easy towards holding NIFTY at 6200 levels.

its like hit a 6 to avoid the dangers of fielders at cricket.

one contra is 6300 call OI.

Ok my ASTROLOGICAL speech is over and game of FATE/Reality is OOOooonnnnn


Ding A Dong

Prithvi Raulji said...

Use Master's Great word 'Get Rich slowly and steady'

hardeep thakur said...

@Ding A Dong,
Thanks a ton for elaborated explanation. :)


Ding A Dong said...

Hi Prithvi,

HIT a 6 was in the context of Option Writers not me ( hahahahh at least some one thought that hahahhahahaha ) I am just a 11th man buying OTM's.

hardeep thakur said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Prabhanshu Raman said...

Hi Hardeep, 1st thing that the thought id just a pure guess. no relation to any TA study. No one can say that tomorrow will be gap up/down based on TA. I can tell you my thought process for making this guess (may be wrong and no relevance to anything as I am learner):
1. Huge addition at 6200PE
2. Nifty broke 61.8% convincingly but was unable to go above 6110-6114 gap area (resistance)
3. Nifty closed above 61.8% (6201)
4. I dont know why but I have noticed these huge gaps majorly in 3rd wave. Based on this my preferred count says that currently 3.3 wave is going on. (Note - I am big 0 in EW)
5. Also, we have seen 2 gaps till now - may be 1st one as Breakaway gap, 2nd one as Runaway Gap. Pending one is (but not manadatory) exhaustion gap which occurs at the end of market move/trend.
Having said all this, still the statement was just a guess and please ignore this kind of guess statements irrespective who make this guess statement.

My mistake for making guess statement - Apologies.

durga said...

@prabhanshu raman
Though yu did guess work , u gave reasons. Since it is after mkt hrs- nothing wrong to express.
Master told many times pre market covers first sessio later it is guess work( though we follow master). In fact iam also on long side. Let the market get us on wrong side-- till then follow the trend let wt may come. Gd nt

Ding A Dong said...

Dear Prabhanshu,

Based on sgx as of now it look like CE writers are aiming to hit a six.

Guess is not bad as it will lead you to follow one day but trade management is more important when your guess is wrong is most needed.

Take Care

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