Retracement strategy, a must for traders.
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor...
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I 'll always be there for you. To make you feel that you're secured. And even if the rain is pouring hard and the sky is almost dark... -
5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ... -
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor...
32 comments:
Ilango sir u gave "Weakness only if it closes below 5207 at 12.00Noon." Is it 5207 or 5201 ie last high ema?? If not from where u got 5207?
Hi
There is H-S pattern in NF. Shoulders at 5218, head at 5221 and the neck at 5209. Hence make above 5218 and break below 5207.
Ilango sir as nifty is in upper range of 5200-5215 range, can we short intraday with sl of 5225?
Dear Rajvada, Thanks for your appropriate comment in technical language.Now a days I am learning it and Dear ilango is the best guide for us.let us see.
Reply to Manoj Isaac G,
Which are best momentum indicator according to TA?
Best indicators for momentum are
1. ADX(Avg directional index)
An indicator used in technical analysis as an objective value for the strength of trend. ADX is non-directional so it will quantify a trend's strength regardless of whether it is up or down. ADX is usually plotted in a chart window along with two lines known as the DMI (Directional Movement Indicators). ADX is derived from the relationship of the DMI lines.
Analysis of ADX is a method of evaluating trend and can help traders to choose the strongest trends and also how to let profits run when the trend is strong.
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2. TRIN (TRIN stands for TRaders' INdex)
A ratio of 1 means the market is in balance; above 1 indicates that more volume is moving into declining stocks; and below 1 indicates that more volume is moving into advancing stocks. This indicator was developed by Richard Arms.
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3. Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The Commodity Channel Index (also known as CCI) is a momentum indicator that was first introduced by Donald Lambert in 1980. It can be used either as an oscillator showing overbought and oversold levels, or as a trend indicator showing the beginning and end of trends. The CCI is calculated using the price, a simple moving average of the price, and a standard deviation around the price. The CCI displays the difference between the price and the simple moving average as a momentum line oscillating around a 0 (zero) line. A scaling factor is also used (0.015 by default), so that most of the values are between 100 and -100.
The CCI is used in several popular trading systems, and therefore has many different ways that it can be used in trading. It can be used as an oscillator, to identify an overbought level when the CCI is above 100, and an oversold level when the CCI is below the -100 line. The CCI can also be used to identify the beginning of a trend when the CCI crosses above the 100 line or below the -100 line, and the end of a trend when it crosses back over the line. The CCI is also used as a pattern indicator, where trades are entered and exited based upon the patterns created by the momentum line, and trend lines are drawn on the CCI instead of the prices.
4. Aroon
Aroon is a technical analysis indicator that was developed by Tushar Chande in 1995. Aroon is a sanskrit word meaning dawn's early light, and the Aroon indicator is so named because it it is designed to signal the beginning of a new trend. Aroon consists of two lines (known as Aroon up and down) which oscillate between 0 and 100 (usually in opposite directions).
This indicator is not available in all trading softwares so I m giving the calculation behind it (if anyone wish to develop a system using it)
Calculation
Description: Aroon up (AU) is calculated as the number of bars that have elapsed since the most recent highest high (HB), and Aroon down (AD) is calculated as the number of bars that have elapsed since the most recent lowest low (LB), as a reverse percentage of the total number of bars (X).
Calculation:
AU = ((X - HB) / X) x 100
AD = ((X - LB) / X) x 100
Example:
If the total number of bars is 10, and the most recent bar is the highest high, Aroon up would be calculated as follows:
AU = ((10 - 0) / 10) x 100 = 100
Trading Use
Aroon is most often used to indicate the start of a new trend (i.e. a change of direction), and as an indication of the strength of the current trend. A new trend is indicated by the Aroon up and down lines crossing over each other. The strength of the current trend is indicated by the Aroon up and/or down lines being at or near 100 (which shows that the most recent bars have made new highs or lows).
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5. ilango sir's,
HIGH EMA 5 & LOW EMA 5.
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And last the only one advance momentum indicator: Boillenear band.
Best Regards.
Reply to Manoj Isaac G,
Best Result will come when u combine above all with ur experience bcoz,
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"As for risk, most people don't understand it, including a lot of professionals, and what's really interesting is that once you understand risk and portfolio management, you can design a trading system with almost any level of performance." —Van K. Tharp
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Best Regards.
Hi..Avinash,
As I have commented earlier, weakness above 5200 suggests of the "Blue" scenario".
hi guys, go short at present NF 5208 with sl at 5225, u will get 70 points.
Hi All
since today premium of options are almost very low and under our 20pts stoploss strategy.I bought 2 lots of 5200 puts.If it goes down I will be in profits if it goes up.I can't losse more then 15rs per lot.
Cheers
Akhil
It is the "RED" scenario working now.
Dear Ilango Sir,
I think giving calls on this blog is a distraction on the actual technical teaching.
Thanks
Happy New Year 2010 to all the readers of this Blog
Sanjay
Hi, saravana,
currently nifty has dual intraday support around 5201,5206 and just above crucial support level, when intraday rsi is oversold near 20 u r giving suggestion for short!
hai ilango sir iam short on nifty at 5215 level ...ur sugesstion plse sir !
HI D..A
NIFTY YEARLY BRECK OUT AT 5216.CLOSE YOUR SHORTS
SYAMALA
Dear Shakira 777 this is the part & parcel of this trade.Market teaches these things also.One should not bother.Just try to concentrate like Arjuna who only saw the eye of the bird.Nothing else.Pick up those things only what you need.
Hi Syamala
Nifty OI of 5200 Puts shows 88% change.Where as calls are shedding the OI.Earlier market use to move away from where there is a huge OI.But now for past few months it moves towards it to make life difficult for Option Writers.I remember last week when I was going on vaccation mostly people on this blog were of the view that nifty will not cross 5000 again coz of the huge OI but see where we are today.
PS - This is just my observation.Market is surpeme and can prove any of us wrong.So please take ur own decision.
Cheers
Akhil
Hello Akhil,
Jan Futures are in premium of 12-14. Buying of puts (ex 5100 pe)has any advantage over buying puts when nifty is in discount?
Hi Ravi
I am sorry I couldn't get ur question completely.
Akhil
meanwhile 5200 calls are unwinding now..so we might just have a final surge to 5240-5260
Buying puts/calls (options) has anything to do with nifty futures trading in high premium or high discount.
No Ravi it doesn't have.For options there are calculators which gives us the volatility to its preferred to buy options when volatility is low.And for Option writers its good when volatility is high.
Hope it helps.
Akhil
I may not be able to update the Tech table for a while. Take care.
A daily close above 5183 will be comforting for the bulls.
Dear Sir,
If it is red scenario , than shall we go long now?
and what will be the tgt and stoploss for the same.
Hi Ilango sir,Wish you a happy new year2010.
A succesive third day closing above 5160 may bull run start now?
What do u mean which other party?
Not yet. 5198 a big support! go long for 30-40 points
Aggressive put writing at 5000 Jan.series.But looks now difficult. They will have to cover it on the higher side.
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Boring day and boring expiry..Can we expect some movement in last 30 mins?Any guesses
Hello,
Thank you all for your inputs. Must be one of the best year ends in the market.
A very happy NIFTY 2010 for Ilango and friends.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Can anybody confirm if Jan 4 trading starts at 9.00 am?
Sir I repeat my request:
Ilango sir I have a request to make. Can you post an article with takin the past two months data or chart and quote how we could have made use of combination of technical indicators like 5ema, MACD stochastics and to support that EW analysis, to initiate a trade and end the trade. I mean as you have given in your pivot supprot and resistance article.
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