Nifty (December) future premium has increased from 3.65 points to 12.25 points
Nifty call option shed 64.35 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option added 59.50 lakh shares in open interest.pcr now 1.4
volumes In Nifty future was significantly higher than yesterday’s volumes. Around 69,500 shares were added in open interest with an increase in the cost of carry, indicating long accumulation.
On the option front, implied volatility has remained almost flat in spite of the big intra-day move, indicating positive bias for the market.
The Nifty has supports at 5100, 5070 and resistances at 5180, 5210.nifty needs to cross yesterdays high of 5161 or else can correct to 5100 /5080 below 5135 first.
In a 3rd wave scenario, because of the sharp & swift move, a negative divergence develops which is to be ignored as the price confirmation will be quite far off. The prices should be climbing labouriously with averages in tow to give a sell signal. Nifty's averages are far away. Yes..an aggressive trader might be able to sell and cover it but even that will be dangerous in a 3rd wave. If 5183 is resisted, a small correction is possible which should be used to go long.
hi shatakshi,
Rounding top is still possible with Nifty going upto 5300+ in daily and for weekly, it can still climb higher.
hi..mynac,
That is a timely reminder. Thanks.
Keep your positions if TA is intact. Uncomfortable traders may stay neutral.If you are in large profits, book atleast partially at EOD or during intra..
please for our guidence give some hint about the exat way to follow conservative nifty trade. i cant understand when position change from bought to sell and sell to bought. thanks
Hi Ilango My hourly chart is having some difference with your hourly chart.I think its about opening rates which is making difference. If possible kindly show opening rates also in your tech table.
Hourly opening rates are irrelevant except for a study of "Candle analysis" of hour charts.
But during gap down and gap up, you need to take the correct high & low.
For eg: Today gap up @ 5162.40 and the 10.00 High Low Close is 5176.25, 5159.50, 5162.50.
Hi..Sanju,
I will explain it later.
The S&R from sell to Buy for yesterday was 5067. Since the first hour close was above 5014, the position taken for trading has been converted to "Conservative Trade".
Hi, ilango sir, I have tested(paper trading) ur system of high ema 5, ema 5 and low ema 5 with pivot level for 2 yr data for hourly, daily and weekly data. Best profitable result comes from positional trade on weekly data based on WEEKLY PIVOT LEVEL AND WEEKLY HIGH EMA 5, EMA 5 AND LOW EMA 5. Thank u very much. If possible pls send ur excel sheet my email: 0001indian@gmail.com With regards. :- Nabendu
Hi, kartik, I have bought 5300 ce @Rs 6.50 for expiry. (only 1 lot Rs 325 from my yesterday's huge profit). Lets see. Take chances, as most of major resistances overcome overnight! And long holiday.. With such a huge momentum if we wan clear 5200.. :-)
Hi, ilango sir, one imp observation from ur system. todays low 5135 todays daily pivot 5097, resistance 5198 daily high ema 5074. daily ema 5049 ----------- weekly high ema for week 18/12/2009 is 5139 weekly high ema for week 24/12/2009 is 5143 TODAYS LOW 5135 ------- same result(most profitable) past 2 yr data. :-) for daily or positional trade. THANK U ILANGO SIR. ---------
Disclaimer : My own view. I know many of you tech-puritans will pounce on me for expressing myself. I am in awe and appreciative of Ilango and all his blog-mates for their analysis/understanding and efforts to unravel the NIFTY myth. But read my view as a week end trivia.
W G Grace, Geoff Boycott, Sunil Gavaskar and Rahul Dravid – Team A. Sir Gary Sobers, Sir Vivian Richards, Sanathy Jayasurya and Virender Shewag –Team B. (There is a Team C – Sir Donald Brodman and Sachin Tendulkar).
All of you know the above are cricketers. Further a. All are batsmen. b. All have played for their countries with distinction – in fact – almost legends. c. All have played 100 or close to 100 tests. d. All have scored above 7000 test runs. (may be Viru on way). e. All have a batting average of 50+
They have all scored runs in tones. They have all got out also for a “blob” to “centuries”. They got out bowled, lbw, caught behind, caught in the deep, hurt retired…
Then why the teams ? If you look closer, you will identify the Team A as technically correct batsmen.(Puritans) Team B – “zone players” (Blasters)
Moral of the story ? You need not be technically perfect to be a successful batsman.
Many of us drive cars. To drive a car it is enough to know the position and use of the steering wheel, accelerator, clutch and the BREAK and the road rules.. May be just learn to change the tyres. Is it a must to know to repair the engine to be a driver ? We have the engineers for that.
What am I trying to say ? leave the technicalities to the technicians. Concentrate on the ball and score the runs. Look at the traffic and drive your car. Don’t be too concerned about where your toe is pointing, where is your right shoulder – just keep your head steady. Read/observer/understand and exploit the technical views and advise. Don’t try to become one. We lesser mortals are not designed for multi-tasking. Leave the TA to the experts.
Do you agree ? (oh.. by the way there is a Team C above – the Don and Sachin – these are the only pure-technically correct batsmen but Master Blasters. Our Friend Ilango is in Team C – but exceptions don’t make life).
Hi, Rajagopal excellent view, we r not team C (like ilango sir) but we must try for team A :-) ilango sir is here since 1992. we can not read charts like him. It is not possible. We can only be successful in early yrs if we follow a system, The fact is: After more than 1 yr paper trading successfully, many one make huge loss when enter real market. why? bcoz they paper trade with mind, so when real money involved emotions effect them. In papers u never loose ur real money.
But if one can paper trade with a system like illango system low ema 5, high ema 5, or pivot system or camrilla system or any diff ema cosssover or other indicator and select ur time frame then u r out of emotion.
Then when u r in real trade, it is ur system not ur emotion. Then may be u r in Team A. :-)
23 comments:
There is huge -ve divergence between Nifty and MACD so is the case with RSI. Can we expect some correction, upto what level.
Illango Sir,
Do we have a rounding top in place in weekly charts
Simple Charts
Long weekend,be careful,Holidays
25-Dec-09 Friday Christmas
28-Dec-09 Monday Moharram (falls twice in 2009)
hi all,good morning
Nifty (December) future premium has increased from 3.65
points to 12.25 points
Nifty call option shed 64.35 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option added 59.50 lakh shares in open interest.pcr now 1.4
volumes In Nifty future was significantly higher than yesterday’s volumes. Around 69,500 shares were added in open interest with an increase in the cost of carry, indicating long accumulation.
On the option front, implied volatility has remained almost flat in spite of the big intra-day
move, indicating positive bias for the market.
The Nifty has supports at 5100, 5070 and resistances at 5180, 5210.nifty needs to cross yesterdays high of 5161 or else can correct to 5100 /5080 below 5135 first.
hi..rrknan,
In a 3rd wave scenario, because of the sharp & swift move, a negative divergence develops which is to be ignored as the price confirmation will be quite far off. The prices should be climbing labouriously with averages in tow to give a sell signal. Nifty's averages are far away. Yes..an aggressive trader might be able to sell and cover it but even that will be dangerous in a 3rd wave. If 5183 is resisted, a small correction is possible which should be used to go long.
hi shatakshi,
Rounding top is still possible with Nifty going upto 5300+ in daily and for weekly, it can still climb higher.
hi..mynac,
That is a timely reminder. Thanks.
Keep your positions if TA is intact. Uncomfortable traders may stay neutral.If you are in large profits, book atleast partially at EOD or during intra..
It should be ultimately your decision..
Hi Ilango,
Could you say your view on chambal fertilisers and Citi union bank.
Mahes
for the record ..prev highs of nifty was 5183 and sensex 17493...
we r almost there...
hi ilango sir,
please for our guidence give some hint about the exat way to follow conservative nifty trade. i cant understand when position change from bought to sell and sell to bought. thanks
Hi Ilango
My hourly chart is having some difference with your hourly chart.I think its about opening rates which is making difference. If possible kindly show opening rates also in your tech table.
Regards
Amit
dear ilango,
Do the opening rates affect the chart calculations ??
Hourly opening rates are irrelevant except for a study of "Candle analysis" of hour charts.
But during gap down and gap up, you need to take the correct high & low.
For eg: Today gap up @ 5162.40 and the 10.00 High Low Close is 5176.25, 5159.50, 5162.50.
Hi..Sanju,
I will explain it later.
The S&R from sell to Buy for yesterday was 5067. Since the first hour close was above 5014, the position taken for trading has been converted to "Conservative Trade".
hi ilango,
consider my request also when you are free.
Could you say your view on chambal fertilisers and Citi union bank.
Mahes
Went long on the Nifty spot @ 5141,double bottom + 5135 seems to be holding.
hi ilango,can u suggest me any software for EOD CHARTS,and rt charts
Hi, ilango sir,
I have tested(paper trading) ur system of high ema 5, ema 5 and low ema 5 with pivot level for 2 yr data for hourly, daily and weekly data.
Best profitable result comes from positional trade on weekly data based on WEEKLY PIVOT LEVEL AND WEEKLY HIGH EMA 5, EMA 5 AND LOW EMA 5.
Thank u very much.
If possible pls send ur excel sheet my email:
0001indian@gmail.com
With regards.
:- Nabendu
@VENKATESWARARAO KAKARLA
http://realtimeniftychart.blogspot.com/
u have to refresh it manually.
EOD chart - Apti sockt, chart nexus
thx
thank you vinod
ok, so whos gonna put their money for 5200 at expiry ? ;)
Hi, kartik,
I have bought 5300 ce @Rs 6.50 for expiry. (only 1 lot Rs 325 from my yesterday's huge profit). Lets see.
Take chances, as most of major resistances overcome overnight! And long holiday.. With such a huge momentum if we wan clear 5200..
:-)
Hi, ilango sir,
one imp observation from ur system.
todays low 5135
todays daily pivot 5097, resistance 5198
daily high ema 5074. daily ema 5049
-----------
weekly high ema for week 18/12/2009 is 5139
weekly high ema for week 24/12/2009 is 5143
TODAYS LOW 5135
-------
same result(most profitable) past 2 yr data. :-)
for daily or positional trade.
THANK U ILANGO SIR.
---------
Disclaimer : My own view. I know many of you tech-puritans will pounce on me for expressing myself. I am in awe and appreciative of Ilango and all his blog-mates for their analysis/understanding and efforts to unravel the NIFTY myth. But read my view as a week end trivia.
W G Grace, Geoff Boycott, Sunil Gavaskar and Rahul Dravid – Team A.
Sir Gary Sobers, Sir Vivian Richards, Sanathy Jayasurya and Virender Shewag –Team B.
(There is a Team C – Sir Donald Brodman and Sachin Tendulkar).
All of you know the above are cricketers. Further
a. All are batsmen.
b. All have played for their countries with distinction – in fact – almost legends.
c. All have played 100 or close to 100 tests.
d. All have scored above 7000 test runs. (may be Viru on way).
e. All have a batting average of 50+
They have all scored runs in tones. They have all got out also for a “blob” to “centuries”.
They got out bowled, lbw, caught behind, caught in the deep, hurt retired…
Then why the teams ? If you look closer, you will identify the Team A as technically correct batsmen.(Puritans) Team B – “zone players” (Blasters)
Moral of the story ? You need not be technically perfect to be a successful batsman.
Many of us drive cars. To drive a car it is enough to know the position and use of the steering wheel, accelerator, clutch and the BREAK and the road rules.. May be just learn to change the tyres. Is it a must to know to repair the engine to be a driver ? We have the engineers for that.
What am I trying to say ? leave the technicalities to the technicians. Concentrate on the ball and score the runs. Look at the traffic and drive your car. Don’t be too concerned about where your toe is pointing, where is your right shoulder – just keep your head steady. Read/observer/understand and exploit the technical views and advise. Don’t try to become one. We lesser mortals are not designed for multi-tasking. Leave the TA to the experts.
Do you agree ?
(oh.. by the way there is a Team C above – the Don and Sachin – these are the only pure-technically correct batsmen but Master Blasters. Our Friend Ilango is in Team C – but exceptions don’t make life).
Happy Christmas !!!
Hi, Rajagopal
excellent view,
we r not team C (like ilango sir)
but we must try for team A
:-)
ilango sir is here since 1992.
we can not read charts like him. It is not possible.
We can only be successful in early yrs if we follow a system,
The fact is:
After more than 1 yr paper trading successfully, many one make huge loss when enter real market. why?
bcoz they paper trade with mind, so when real money involved emotions effect them.
In papers u never loose ur real money.
But if one can paper trade with a system like illango system low ema 5, high ema 5,
or pivot system or camrilla system or any diff ema cosssover or other indicator and select ur time frame then u r out of emotion.
Then when u r in real trade, it is ur system not ur emotion.
Then may be u r in Team A.
:-)
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