Monday, December 21, 2009

Nifty Intraday update

At 2.35PM:

There is a possibility of a positive divergence here - to be confirmed by a move above 4990 and an hourly close above Hour ema @ 4980.
Close shorts now and watch the price action @ 5040 zone and reinitiate if necessary. Break of 4958 may lead to 4905-4925 area or lower.
Sorry..I was disconnected for a while.


18 comments:

Prosenjit said...

5000CE added 22.01L so far or 48.79%, total OI is @67.3L

BEAR BASE CAMP SHIFTED TO 5000 :)

Akhil said...

Ilango sir

Will be thankful if u could explain how did u calculate a bounce upto 5050 near about levels.
You can explain it after market hrs or when ever time permits.

Cheers
Akhil

Ilango said...

Hi..Akhil,

One view: From Hour charts, it seems a five wave down seem to be over. A minimum rally should be on, provided 4958 is not broken.
This rally, if it is only a rally, then it will generally retrace the last fall which is from 5063. It is not a rule. Hence, I have indicated the price action to be watched near 5040(50447 the intra high of Friday).

If it is a new upmove, we will see the indications by way of the daily Pivot high of 5067 clearing in shorter time.

Shikhartimby said...

The NF is turning into premium at bottom.

Gaurav said...

Look at difference in OI build up in 5000 CE and PE

Gaurav said...

Huge Build up in 5000 CE as against PE

Ilango said...

3.00PM close suggests of more weakness..

shaq said...

no conviction in the selling...even though 5k calls added heavy OI...something appears wrong..maybe its a bear trap

Prosenjit said...

With the huge addition of 5000 call OI, it can be said we will not move abv 4980-5010 in near future.
Any bounce to those lvl I am going to sell.

Next thing to watch is how 5000 put end the day, still with addition of 7.1L with total OI of 54.91L

Ilango said...

"4945" is now the weekly Low ema.

Aggressive can go long in this area or a bit lower @ 4925.

satheesh said...

Sir will it be advisable to hold shorts if any positionally with a stop loss of 4980?

bizagra said...

Ilango sir, as we r out of positional shorts? For positional also watch area is 5040 to reenter shorts?

Prosenjit said...

shaq,
Remember BULL protected 5000 lvl for long, we should not expect bulls to through the towel and run away.
What ever bears have damaged so far is good enough...lets wait for 1-2 days to see how bear carry on.

bizagra said...

Or sud positional go short again if closes below 4945??

Ilango said...

Bank Nifty which has been the weakest for the past two weeks has come into positive territory.
As long as it stays above 8575, a good rally is possible.

shaq said...

@prosenjit
yes i dont deny that bears have held some grip,n u r right we might not crash to 4800 too...but there is no reduction in 5k puts too so taking a call only on OI buildup looks dangerous...this might just end up as a frustrating series with no santa rally or a pullback

Ilango said...

"Shorts" were closed only because of highly "Oversold" status.

Aggressive can even attempt Longs with proper SL. However, Overnight Long is not advised.

Prosenjit said...

Covered 5000PE @102 at last moment.... bought @67.
Also covered 5000CA short @41 ... sold @65.

Only holding 4800PE @21 and ITC 250CA @2.60.Also 5200CA sold @24.

Expect some bounce to 4960-4980 in the morning, where will enter in 4900PE and write 5000CA again.

Post a Comment