Below is the intraday chart of 16.11.09 which resembles today's..Courtesy: aarvee
This settlement has a high low @ 4807 to 5183 and 5000 happens to be in the middle.
We have a weekly sell in place and due to daily oversold nature, market may do a fight back in this week..
Nifty was brought down to 4944 below 5000 by 56 points and now the bulls may attempt to take it above 5010(5 day ema), 5025(5 week ema) and to 5042 - last week's tussle area & this week's pivot and may be a bit more depending on the strength left.
38% retracement for this fall comes @ 5034.
50% retracement for this fall comes @ 5064.
The last leg of this 5 wave fall happened from 5064 on 17th Dec. which may be attempted to retrace in quicker time for a trend reversal. And if 5064 is not retraced in quicker time(16 trading Hours), downtrend will be intact.
So we play this upmove in a "Three wave(a(5)b(3)c(5 or 3)) form" and then Sell.
83 comments:
Sir cant understand C form how to play now?
Yestreday at 4970 I exit from my short position after your msg.
Now should it time to go long.
Plz give levels also.
Thx
ilango sir,
Dont you think with the 5000 call having such huge position and 5100 and 5200 standing as a sky scraper we may see 4980-4990 max.And any chance of nifty moving above 5000 can be ruled out or if happens then huge short covering along with spike. At nifty pe 21-22 I will bet on downward move.
Bot 5000PE again today morning @73 and 4800PE @15.5
So far market seems to be in control lets see where we go.
hi..musti, as per the updated hourly table, go long upto 4972-4964(Day's Pivot) as long as hour does not close below either 4972 or 4964. A close above "Hour High ema" can only give some confidence. Till then, trade.
Levels go by Daily pivot(4965), R1 4986(already done) and the last R2-5019.
Any move below 4965 will drag it further down.
@prosenjit
no doubt fundamentals and technicals are stretched ..but it can remian stretched for more time or the market cld just meander around waiting for averages to catch up...looking at the way equities have suddenly lost co relation with dollar (with a dollar rally from 74 to 78 thats huge),it gives confusing signals..we shld have a drop of 10% atleast by now..but nothing...any correction probably wont be so deep...
Hi..Prosenjit,
We need to combine many studies and play the market. You have rightly part booked yesterday. There are no "absolute signals" in the market.
BTW, I have uploaded the file and have sent to many invitations too. There is a mailing list in excess of 500 which may take up time..by to night I will complete.
I am new to this. I do not know yet how to update, so I may replace the file every night.
shaq,
Do you belive the rise in dollar index is really a sign that dollar is recovering.
Remember the "Nobel prize winner for peace" had a visit to china recently, China reserve the highest ammount of USD outside US. When kings meet they give each other some gift ;).Christmas is on and let it be a gift from the black man :D.
More over Australian $ will be the place after shorting US$ again. So wait till we break 81-82 in dollar index for real rally.
Hello ilango sir, can u add ur comment on TCS???
@prosenjit
China sure has around 2.3 trillions in USD...n they wont let dollar to collapse...but the current snapback shld have resulted atleast some correction in equities which is missing...
There r some indicators like coppock's which has given a buy signal (n indication of bull market)as early as april 09...coppock's is known to be very reliable in giving such signals with accuracy of 80%..but its a long term indicator..
i guess we have to wait for jan-feb to really find out how much effect the hike in interest rates,n other tech indicators pull back the market..
Hi Ilango
As prosenjit said 5000 CA is building up good open interest and Nifty may find very tough to cross 5000 level. As per OI data 5000 CA is having 2nd highest build up with more than 69 lac shares added. On the put side 4900 and 4800 is having highest OI respectively which indicates support is around 4900 as of now. So trade accordingly and keep booking profit around 5000.
Regards
Amit
shaq,
Remember US may not increase interest rate in near future.So shorting USD at high and buying other currency with higher interest rate will be the trend, which is dollar carry trade. But the picture changes if US FED increases the interest rate.... watch.
2010 will be very interesting.
Hi..Mano,
IT stocks have been on a steady uptrend and the last one month upmove is to be taken as the last upmove( meaning the 5th wave).
TCS was sold off with a very large volume yesterday from 749 and it closed @ 734.
Break below 719.55 will be an early sign of reversal.Until then, the trend remains up.
A break below 695 will confirm a reversal to down.
Is my observation correct
'A' = 4944 - 4986 = 42 pts (achieved)
'B' = 38% of 'A' = 17pts = 4969 (achieved)
'C' = 1.62% of 'A' = 68 pts = 5012.
so can we pla for @least 5012.
just started learning.
thanks
Yes..Vinod,
You are right. But there are other possibilities too. As 5183 to 4944 took seven days, the correction to that fall will not get over in a day. So what you may be expecting could be part of the "A" wave only.
dear illango,
@what stage i'll be able to find whether the correction is over or not. im long and i would like to book profit @5012.
thanks
Hii Ilango sir, today you didnt gave trade table?why? i was very helpful for traders like me.At the moment i m long @4975 with SL 4965.is it ok?
hi all
long at 4980 sl 4967 ,t-5000-5011 ,if 5011 cross may be 5041 .
thanks
Vinod,
where did you long ? 4944-4950 or today morning.
hi prosenjit
i was long yesterday @ 4955. Hourly oversold.
thx
Vinod,
Great!!!
I am adding more and more of 5000PE @70 and below.4990 will stop this upmove, tht wat I think. Inline with ilango sir.
Hi..Vinod,
You can either book profits closer to 5000 or hold it with a Sl @ 4972.
Hi..Bizagra,
I had technical problem and my morning was taken up by a special post. In the graph above the levels are there plus the Tech. table numbers - learn to figure them out.
And thanks amrender for helping out.
12.00Noon hour close is above 5-Hour High Ema. Any corrections should be limited to 4979-4972.
Btw China is in bear grip, hang seng opening 100 point down in 2nd session.
Europe looks to book some profit, so better be on short than long.
vinod/Illango sir.....i could'nt get this math......can you plz detail on that..
'A' = 4944 - 4986 = 42 pts (achieved)
'B' = 38% of 'A' = 17pts = 4969 (achieved)
'C' = 1.62% of 'A' = 68 pts = 5012.
thanks illango
I moved my SL
Hi ka,
the 5th wave completed @ 4944. 2da morning initial pause was @4986 (A) & price came down till 4969 (B)which is 0.38 fib retracement from 4944 - 4986.
C wave can have various targets like 1.62, 2.62 of A ..so i set the min target of 1.62 of A...
this is how i calculated. Iam a complete novice in EW. Plz dont take it as a guide. Im waiting patientl for illango to guide us in EW.
thx
hmm......thanks vinod.
Dear sir,
How to increase a chart area in excel sheet?
Hi
Dare you need to right click the chart / near axis area. YOu need to change the minimum and maximum parameters.
e.g. for macd may be minimum setting is -20 ...change it to -60....
you may opt for search in excel...detailed procedure is given. just need to do thetrial ang error in a sample sheet. you will learn.
thanks
hi..dare,
There are two methods:
(Presently the file has 400 rows of data in the chart).
Choice-1: You can copy the data in columns A,B,C,D,E(date, open, high, low & close)from the 40th row to 450th row (to expand the data by 40)and paste the same from the 3 rd row. Do not copy the entire row but only the cells from 40th row a b c d e - columns.
Once you have pasted, go to the end of the row which will be 363rd row and mask the entire rows from that row and click "Clear all contents" under the "Edit" bar.
This way, you can key in data for 40 more periods.
Choice-2: Right click on the graph and click on the source data, you will get under data range as below:
=Data.H!$F$15:$F$400,Data.H!$H$15:$H$400,Data.H!$K$15:$L$400
Now change the number 400 to 440 or 450 or 500 to expand the graph. Change all the 400's to a new same number.
I hope this helps.
Thanks Shikartimby..Yes, that is another expansion I missed out.
ilango sir,
looks like mkts will be range bound today with range of 4960-5010 with -ve bias as there is a divergence in rsi&mkt not crossing yesterday,s high.pl comment sir.
Hi, 5000Put and 4900 Put added more today in total volume wise, Sor be careful any time market may come down to the starting point.. :Anandan.R
Dear Sir,
Thank you very much...!!!!!!
Hi shikhartimby...thanks for ur help also
I think nifty - Spot finding resistance at 5 EMA Low Daily=4991 and 5 EMA weekly= 5000.Only above 5EMA daily=5009 will have bull ride.
There is a squeeze is on in the 5 minute chart with 4972-4975 to 4992 range. As long as it trades above 4980, it is an easy climb up. Break below 4972 & then day's pivot @ 4965, new lows may be possible.
Corrections...there are all kinds out there..difficult to say what kind is playing.
Daily is Oversold but no buy signal yet. Hourly 2.00PM close above 4982 will be good for upmoves. Till then higher level selling will continue.
ilango sir,
In the morning I missed your comment on google doc.Its similar to excel only, if you need any help please let me know.
You are doing great job for all of us.
Btw if anyone have position in ITC 250CA, I have booked full @2.40.
ilango sir,
u r right,break of 4972 can bring pivot-4965 and below to 4931-sup1 in play.rsi div .in 5min chart is prominent.lets see
Sir 1.00 pm hourly close is also above 5 hr ema as per the updated blog data! Is low still possible for today below 4976?
breakout of range
hi.Satheesh,
Such an analysis is not possible. However, we have to trade here cautiously till the weight of the evidence turns in favour of bulls. We are playing for the corrective bounce as of now.
Choppiness will continue.
Prosenjit ji,
I have received a mail from Illang Ji -google doc. It shows empty. How to open and what Illango ji sent .Pl help me
Thanks
BALA and ilangoji today evening I will check all the issue with the excel sheet.
ilangoji can you sent me a fresh day end copy in my mail.
Thanks.
now a breakdown
aarvee
Possible...... OI reduction in 5000PE is been seen.Almost a lakh from high.
looks like holding near 21ema line and giving bothsided whipsaws,mkts only good for brokers today ,moving in just 15point range
hi all
close long at 4980,wait & watch.
thanks
Amrender gill
Prosenjit sir,
Can you please explain how reduction of puts means more lows are possible?
hi Prosenjit,
i think options o.i.is not very reliable intraday indicator,can be good for a 100-200 pt. range or for monthly expiry players.what say/
hi..Prosenjit,
I will send you the file this evening once updated. Do the needful.
aarvee,
I have been doing taking clue from option data for long.I dont go by EW on intraday, I cant do that.
I am more of a positional trader and not hourly trader.10-15 points I dont see to profit but see for resistance or support.
As per your choice you can follow anything.Aim is to profit and restrict loss :)
Like today so far I am doing good in nifty, only mistake made is in ITC 250CA.Covered @2.40 now 3/- :)
Hi..Vinod,
This is what the possibility I offered in the morning:
"A" got over at morning's high @ 4992.30
"B" an irregular one made a high @ 4997.05 and a low @ 4969.65....and the
"C" is on from there towards a target of 5000+ (Provided Nifty does not fall below 4975-4972.
hi ,
if anybody is having old intraday yahoo fin. charts,just watch 16th nov. chart,looks like a almost repica in price movement as well indicator movement upto 2.30pm.rightly somebody has said "markets do nothing new"
Hi Ilango
U can upload ur excel file for sharing on the below link for free.U will also be having the control who can download it edit it etc.
Link http://www.4shared.com/
Cheers
Akhil
hi Prosenjit
sure i said the same thing o.i. data is more favouring positinal trades but recently in nov. series end week they massacrd. put writers.all the supports of 4900pe were taken out and mrkt close at 4750 in expiry.but then no indicator is perfect as u said aim is to mint money and that to as u like it
Sir,
If we go down to 4975, then as per 5 min chart is this a H&S?
Regards,
Deepak
sorry oct series
see my comment at 2.43, on 16th nov we closed just at the gap opening of first 5 min ,today it is about 4985.lets see
Ilango, please send me the file as well @ rishig38 @ gmail dot com
hi Prosenjit,
where do u see options data intraday,apart from nse website(it gives delayed data many a times)
hi..aarvee,
I will put the 16th Nov.09 intraday chart . It does resemble today's moves.
Hi I am using ChartNexus : Free software for all the Technical.. I take SOC values at bottom out BUY single.. It is working wonderfully for Stocks,
Illangoji... Can you give your feedback.. Wish to see SCO values of Nifty for last 10 days...( Short term ), Thanks. Anandan.R
hi ilango sir,
u did put up the chart,i was getting bored from trading today so just took some time and scanned old charts ,if u will pl. watch old yahoo charts(link available at http://chartsnifty.blogspot.com/)see the resemblance in price and indiacators move.
Sir can positional long be taken at current levels?
No..Sateesh,
I don't think at all there are any reasons for taking positional longs. Better to be safe.
ilango sir,
did u see the 16th nov yahoo chart, same 15-20 movement all day,candles and 21ema,even a upside whipsaw near 1.30pm and downside whipsaw near 2.30 pm. even the slow stochs move,rsi moves and psar are almost same.my god
Hi..Deepak,
I missed your comment. Yes. It does look like an inverted H&S at the bottom with a neckline around 4997.
so aarvee9 what is ur point...
Hi..aarvee,
o not get amazed by it as such fractals exists everywhere. Simply enjoy & benefit from God's marvels. By emoting you will let it pass by.But by calculations, you will reap rich..Experience will give you much more.
US mkts are expected to continue higher. In such a scenario, aggressive traders can keep longs if Nifty closes above 4985.(Low ema)
dear prakash,
i am not making any point,just was bored in this mkt. so was scanning old charts,as ilango sir puts it enjoy gods marvel and benifit from it,(do let ur broker benifit from it)
Illango sir.......could you plz transmit me also the file once you fall free.....
thanks
Arun
sorry ,its-(dont let ur broker benifit)
Please send a test mail to get the files.
bye everybody,and thanks ilango sir,
have a nice day
Sir please also send these files on my id, i am sending my test mail to you and please suggest from where in your site will find study material to read your system.
ggn.chawla@gmail.com
gagan
ilango sir I dont see your mail in my mail box. please send mail to prosenjit.kundu @ gmail.com (remove spaces).
Thanks
hi..ggnjoy,
Go to Labels section and read the materials in "Technical Analysis"
Also at the top of the blog, you have 7 links under "Always start trading with these".
And the file also has been sent.
hi, ilango sir,
we r still below 20 ema, 50 dma, 50 ema, even 5 ema.
Is it good to be positional long(today) on the basis of us market? May be today's up just a corrective bounce. Is not at least 5010 must be crossed b4 any positional long?
(just a query)
hi..
As per the technical study we have been following, it is not right to hold longs. However, as per an EW possibility, a rally to 5025-5040 is possible and if the rally gathers strength, higher levels too is possible. Hence the reco. for the high risk aggressive traders.
However, the conservative traders can continue to hold shorts if they have not booked yesterday or at today's lows.
There are so many methods to follow and there are many kinds of risk factors. I have bifurcated conservative & aggressive for "Passive" as well as "active" traders and am suggesting certain trades.
The most important ingredient for success in your trade is "Your own input by way of your experience and your active involvement".
Best regards.
ilango
ilango sir,
Rightly said, I never suggest anyone to buy or sell.But do disclose my thoughts and position.Its upto the other person to judge I am wrong or right.Its can not be I will be 100% right every time but try to minimize the failure(LOSS).
I do follow EW and SAR, MACD,Slow Stoch and %W. But EW is for long term and others for day and swing trading.
One can choose what ever they are comfortable with.
But one thing is I do keep updated my self with all the option data.Thats my main tool to minimize loss.
Ilango sir,
Please keep up the good work!!! Learning many a things from you.
Thank you ilango sir.
hi prosenjit
you bring in a good ambience in the analysis. Your OI inputs make a good combination to Ilango ji's tech input.
Plz continue it, for many learn from it.
:)
with regards
Moh
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