As per the Tech table, there are a lots of averages @ 5000-5005 which should now provide supports and there are many @ 5037 to 5050/5065 which would be strong resistances.
38% retracement is done @ 5034.After some correction to 4990-5000, it may attempt to retrace the 50% @ 5064.
110 comments:
I think on friday we were discussing here if a rising $ market is not correcting then rest assured longs are safer :-)
I saw few posts of PCR low suggests market will fall, this is a myth.
Post budget fall 3900 and 4000 CALLS had maximum O/I and yet market went to 4500 instead of 3600.
Regards
Akash
Dear Akash,
Budget is an event, people do create position guessing the outcome.
We have X-mas and New Year nearer, we all know FII go for holiday during this time.OI data is built up based on that(to protect up move here), which I think will continue.This is not a wild guess.
How can you compare these two ?
5034 done,maybe we can look forward to the next down leg now. Currently the spot is at 5041.
Hi all,
Option Pain is between 4900 & 5000......
expecting market to expire around 5000.
Hence sold 5100 Call.
anybody tracking option pain....
thx
hi all,
(posted yesterday night)
Nifty future has turned into a premium of 3.65
points from a discount of 4.05 points and 4.50 lakh shares were reduced in open interest with increase in the cost of carry,indicating short covering in the market.
On the option front,implied volatility has decreased significantly by around 250-450basis points, pointing towards positive bias and that the buying may continue to emerge at lower levels.also pcr is low at 1.16,so not much downside expected as on date.
December 22, 2009 11:37 PM
aarvee9 said...
nifty weekly showing broken rising wedge
nifty daily showing falling wedge/channel
nifty hrly showing positive divergences in all indicators.
so for tommorow there may be a pull back but the bias remains -ve till 5065 not crossed convincingly.
December 22, 2009 11:43 PM
Dear Prosenjit, You are extremely correct. I also follow the O.I. data and normally it is observed that it is tough to predict due to time to time changed situations, and it is a lots of practice game.
Selling options at this stage can be very risky as the risk: reward is too high. Plz correct me if wrong...
Vinod,
Max Pain I do.
I am holding 5200CA short @24
Hope to eat all the premium.
Dear Prosenjit,
CALLS of 4500 were highest OI before Budget announcement then we slide down to 3900 where H&S was hot discussion and 4000 C OI had heavy builtup so everyone in street assumed bears are in control. And in 3 session 4300 was on screen, calls and puts never give a direction.
If i am 10 lot short i will buy 5 lot 5100 calls, calls or puts are just as hedge options.
If more call buying it also means more are short.
FII going for holiday is not a reason for market to fall, dec 2007 also FII were in holiday and we made a spike from 18 to 20k using 4-5 stocks like ONGC HINDALCO M&M etc.
Regards
Akash
gr8 Prosenjit
clearly it was a well laid out bear trap...we now have good short covering going on..and with fri,mon holiday bears r hurt again here
Sir,
It seems that nifty is trying to reach 5064 without any mild corrections! what does this imply? more highs or a sudden fall intraday to 5000 levels?
Exited aggressive shorts initiated at 5041 at 5052.Markets seem to have some good short covering.
ALL calls have doubled , now PUTS will have higher OI LOL.
Funny market
Regards
Akash
5065 is 20 dma .. sustaining above that may be bullish
Simple Charts ( http://simplecharts.blogspot.com/)
Now we are above 5064 and the retracement is far quicker then the fall. I hope ilango sir can tell us clearly were we are going from here.
Serious short covering will be seen if nifty will cross 5100.
dear akash/shaq
rightly said ,its a bear trap.o.i data showed resistance at 5000 yesterday, people were buying 5000pe at rs79-80,now its just rs.24. if mkt closes above 5000 tmrw we may not see the premium again.
Shorted NF at 5077 with SL of 5090
buying puts only at the break of 4930 (closing )for target 4800 is the sure way,else the rangebound mkt will eat all the premiums
aarvee9 ...
very right...the moves from fri were very suspicious and was a repeat of the so many traps laid out since march...not sure we will cross 5183 this time...but lets see ...we might just get a throwover..panic buying which shld end this massive play..
The last fall from 17.12.09 of 5064 has been retraced in faster time(less than 16 hours)in 11 hours only which is a sign of short term reversal.
A daily close above 5050+ will bring in good momentum on the upside.
now weekly pivot 5040 and intraday r2 5010 will provide good support today.will be weak below 5000 intraday.
ilango sir ur precious comments
akash may have a point here. we tend to think of FII flleing the markets in the chrismas season, but history shows otherwise. you can check out this link -- http://seekingalpha.com/article/178532-late-december-the-best-time-of-year-for-stocks?source=feed
and ---- http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/12/how-far-might-the-santa-rally-go.html
The conservative trade trigger for the day - the 5 day high is 5067 and the same has been triggered.
ilango sir,
can i just add that 2 day swing reversal of 4998 and 5 day reversal of 5067 have also been taken out.closing abobe 5050 will take again to 5110/5130
5000 calls are shedding OI rapidly...10 pt premium on futures..if 5100 gets crossed ...we cld have some serious buying..as there is massive OI at 5100ce
Now if the 5100 and 5200 call writers start to panic we can see huge green candles.
Hi..aarvee,
Momentum is strong with good AD ratio. The critical resistances of 5042 & 5064 have been cleared. If these levels offer supports during intra corrections, then 5100+ is possible.
Tomorrow's close is important. The daily TA is now turning up from the bottom. If the Weekly TA which turned down last week, turns up this week, then Nifty will gain added strength to its daily TA.
By keeping our mkt pressed down while other mkts were up last two days, some confusion was created but the prices did not lie. They showed the short term reversal signs..
thanks ilango sir
hi guys,
lets review the strategy opted for by buying 4900 call and put. as we were expecting a blow out on either side.
4900 pe at 9 bot at 48
4900 ce at 192 bot at 112
premium outflow was 160
curr at 200
profit 40 points.
if the mkts continue rising till expiry..one can have good returns.
regards,
ankit.
thats the way ankit,to have a strangle or a straddle,options are for hedging not naked trading.we speculate not gamble in this market..keep us updated on your optios strategy.good work
one can buy tatacomm at 340-342 wid sl of 334. for tgt1 of 420.
risk of 8rs
reward 80rs.
regards,
ankit.
i suppose,this leg can go up to 5090 intraday,can book intraday longs at 5090.
5k calls and 5k puts are interchanging their positions...with 5k puts overtaking 5k calls in OI...so a definite trend change...
Thanks ankit..I bought it on your reco. @ 342.20.
Thanks Ankit,i bought on your reco.@342.8
Hi Lingo sir,
I have 5200 ca @7. whwn i can book profit.
please advice me.( or hold for tom )
Ranjeet
jingle bell, jingle bell-santa rally,enjoy but be cautious,bears massacered,loads of short covering.
5k call has quadrupled in price..phew..some returns for the holders
Watch the Day High ema @ 3.00Pm here. If Nifty is able to close above that today, strong momentum will be in place.
One word of advice: Option trading is mostly based on momentum for big gains. So book out when you see a sharp upmove. If you are willing to play a true TA, then hold it.
5000CA
Open Interest 4032150
Change in Open Interest -3120950
% Change -43.63
Thats big in a day.Bulls are in full charge.
Covered 5200CA short @15.
Holding no position now, will go for holiday in next few days.
ilango sir
rightly said,since expiry is nearing and tmrw being last day trading of this week,take atleast half of the profits, calls giving fabulous returns,in this market premiums can disappear in out of money options fast
Hi Lingo,
Thank you very very much.
Ranjeet
Hi Ilango
I think this is 3rd wave from bottom 4944.
1st 4944 - 4997; 2nd 4997 to 4969...
third 4969 - 51......continue
any guess where will end this
ilango sir,
can we book longs here intraday?and wait for a dip of 30-40 points to reenter?
Hi Shikhartimby,
5200 is the tgt before 31st dec
hi guys,
just an update on the strategy.
4900 pe at 8
4900 ce at 232
total 240 vs outflow of 160
profit of 80rs on 160
dats a neat 50%.
wud advise to book out here or by eod.
one may see sum ranged trading tomm after such a humungous move today.
@llango and raichand. ur welcome.
llango im zapped for words wid ur thanks. honoured. thanks.
regards,
ankit.
intraday chart looking tired after beating the bears,stochs in o/s since opening,can it give a dip?
illango sir plz add ur comment on nifty( jan expiry)..do u think is it better to hold call/put??
as long as nifty spot is above 5104 , please avoid any shorts,... for intraday
Intraday Supports shift to 5080 & 5064.
If the closing is near the high of the day, carry longs.
Dear Sir,
can we short now with stoploss of 5182 as the hourly stochastic is overbought?
Hi, cloudless
u want everyone's participation here without their view on nifty levels! Then it'll be meaningless.
pls remember what ilango sir says,
'The most important ingredient for success in your trade is "Your own input by way of your experience and your active involvement".'
Decision is yours bcoz its ur money.
And ur comment 'lets avoid much importance to OI in option' may disheartened prosenjit, shaq, mynac & others effort here.
hi all
sell nifty at 5120 sl 5130 spot 15 dec high.
thanks
Amrender Gill
Cloudless... You are very much correct. But technically its not possible to stop. Only our request can stop this. Last few days i am not able to take positions properly coz diffrent versions in same blog from diffrent people
The daily trend is turning up firmly with today's price action. See the Tech Table turning green.
If the same effect goes into weekly by a firm close above 5025 which looks possible, one should ride this upmove positionally.
Aggressive traders will trail intra profits with a Sl of 5080 and book out after 3.00PM.
hi..dare,
We should keep the daily TA in mind and trade the hour. So buy into dips upto 5080 as long as 5065 is not breached.(aggressive trade)
Dear Sir,
This is only my problem everytime at new high i feel to initiate short position only.. thats why i ask in advance before initiating short..
Once again thanks for ur advice..i will wait for dips to take a long position.
Hi Ilango Sir, What is Stop Loss And Reverse for the Conservative Trade.
Keep a SL @ 5060 for the day. We will revise it in tomorrow's morning post.
ilango sir...i have sent u a mail for accessing the OI sheet on google docs..plz accept my request...mail id
saif.shakeel@gmail.com
ILango:
Seems like IT stocks are still running on hot air. HCL is at new high, Wipro is almost at new high (above 693 I think), Infosys is again at new all time highs and TCS is back to 745 levels again.
When will this final wave end ? Any reasonable price target for Infosys and TCS.
THANKS
Hi, cloudless
i think INDAIN is right , we are all participation in this blog & giving there views,if u r confuse ,u concentration on ILANGO view
Thanks
Amrender Gill
Sorry is my post have confused someone.I will only be reader from now on.
I know I am not been pointed but I am one of them who keeps on updating option OI.Will keep that to me from now.
Sorry about it.
I want all those who have been contributing their efforts in various studies to continue to do so as their importance is understood by those who follow them.
As your position size increases, the relevance of option writing comes into play.
Traders who like to keep the info. simple should, please, ignore such comments and stay focused on prices and other method they follow.
When Ankit commented on Tatacomm, I immediately checked my charts and decided to buy it. It is now my decision but the credit for bringng it to my notice is to "ankitsolanki".
We grow sharing here. But that does not mean we will follow everything. That discrimination & judgement should be yours alone.
I hope this view will not hurt anyone.
There is one thing I have learnt in my life is to always "encourage"...to reach high..unlock the potential in you..
hi Ilango,
I am srini
5183--4944
retreachment levels
0.382-5035,0.618-5064,0.786-5132
if nifty does'nt break 0.786 -5132..786 is squareroot of 0.618. then retreach 0.382 of 5125 is 5056 level.then it break that level. possible to form AB=CD patteren 'D'may be 4895 to 4885
my id tsini74@gmail.com
Prosenjit...
Plz dont stop putting your views. This is Ilango sir's blog and only HE should decide what is good for trader's community here and what is not
Cloudless, if you are confident about Ilango's views why do you even read the rest? Dont even look at them and read only Ilango's replies. Ilango has constantly reiterated that simply following the conservative trade setup [with focus on S&R] in the pre-market view is more than sufficient. Since there's no sitting on fence [you are always in a trade with S&R], you dont even have to read the comments. Its all in your hands...
என்ன நே நான் சொல்றது?
Mr Prosenjit ur stratagy worked great for a range bound market. but today is an exceptional day. and we cant get profit in all trades we make. And as an experience trader you know that very well. so please give us ur views, and days like today are rare.
regards
anoop
mayankg,
I have no intention to confuse people, if anybody things its confusing, its better not to post here.
Btw what ever I post are all available on nseindia.com , if anyone wants he/she can get it there.
And ilango sir's blog, definitely.He is doing a great job here.But he never thinks its his property, thats the think I like most.
Ilango sir,
keep up the good work.I will be around and read ur blog everyday.
@cloudless
there r many indicators to monitor and we are just helping to approximate the market behavior with all the inputs..any decision has to be taken by the trader finally..
prosenjit this time it was a big bear trap...but plz continue..
@Avinash
Prosenjit said...
Bulls are strong so far.Lets see how the day pan out.
In SGX nifty roll over to JAN is been seen below 5000.Looks like close short in dec and opening long in jan, i may be wrong.
as posted earlier the targets above 5065 were 5110/5130,(achieved today itself,what a santa rally).now if keeps above 5050-weekly s/r and above 5103-weekly r1,then can go upto 5218-weekly r2,tmrw or by expiry next week.
your comments ilango sir----
Hi Prosenjit
the following is my yesterdays posting.
Plz continue your efforts.
---------------
mok said...
hi prosenjit
you bring in a good ambience in the analysis. Your OI inputs make a good combination to Ilango ji's tech input.
Plz continue it, for many learn from it.
:)
with regards
Moh
December 22, 2009 6:51 PM
--------------
Hi All,
Cloudless expressed his view. Its ok. No need to pounce on him. He may be correct in his own way too.
---------------
Let us keep up the comraderie as usual.
:)
---------------
ankit, plz followup on such strategies. Its interesting.
---------------
Plz opine, all of you, where is nifty heading ?
5182? xmas rally ?
Oneday stuff ? [tomoro being lastday b4 4day off]
We hav crossed all the ema s at one stroke.
Only now nifty dipping a little below 50ma
Only now ADX di+ coming over di-.
with regards
Moh
Avinash,
This market is brainwashing bears into submission. That means, ultimately, Nifty might fall 1000 points or so when the bears finally give up all hopes of shorting.
The biggest clue that this was a bear trap was the new highs in the S&P 500 index. Beginning today, until Jan 3, the US market is supposedly going to be very bullish. I think it is called the Holiday Effect or the Santa Claus Rally.
Amidst these very bullish scenario, it was strange for the Indian markets to go down (except for Hangseng and China, none of the other world indices were displaying any weakness at all). So we have this strong "snapper" (big rally) to recover from the fall.
One day in the ner future, it will be the turn of the bulls to be picking dimes (paisa) in front of a bulldozer.
Hi, cloudless,
I strongly oppose ur comment
'Everyone of us are here to make money.'
Most of us here to learning TA from Ilango sir (his system low5 ema, high 5 ema is unique).
Thanks to all others like Hemanta sir, Prosenjit, shaq, mynac and all for contributing here. pls carry on.
I m a reader of this blog since nov, I think it is the best blog for nifty traders.
Thank u ilango sir.
all fronline stocks after correcting till nifty level of 4940 ,are/have reaching the major reistances required to be overcomed for reversal,
like
tata steel-595
relcapital-850
sbin- 2230
icicibank-855
reliance-1055
tatamotors-750
bharti-325
now what?after short covering will nifty remain above 5065? for further followup upto 5182/5218?
Ilango,
some negative divergences in the 5 minute chart..
GK
Ilango sir and freinds please go to this site and take this trading test when u are free www.tharptradertest.com
hi..GK,
During strong momentum moves, such negative divergence may be ignored by positional traders. However, aggressive & intraday traders may tighten their stops and ride it on or else part book.
hi guys,
anyone who want to short here. may short one nifty with sl of 5183 and sell one 5200 pe.. any move above 5183 will propel the mkt atleast 100 points higher...thereby being able to eat up the put premium.
sold one 5200 pe at 170.
and nifty at 5145 with sl of 5183.
lets review this strategy in the coming days.
regards,
ankit.
jay shah,
its excellent!!!
nice post.
Sir,
This is a very good blog like VFM. Lot of benifited even thugh suffered losses. Now every body wants to earn or to reduce the loss. So all the memebers know the things well please guide with out any ego. This where problems arises.
Bala
Highest close of this uptrend was 5148. Closing above this will be very bullish...
ilango sir,
there is negligible change in 5200CA OI
any clues
its look like we will open gap tomorrow to take out 5183 levels.
what a rally..all puts are decimated...shedding OI across various strikes..5200 calls however have not shed much ...so tom will be interesting day
5200 call writers are still holding fort for tom...so lets c whether we can cross over with such a strong momentum
hi shaq
same process of option traders massacre was in oct. series when everyone wanted to write puts as market was told to go above 5200,there was lots of put buildup at 4900 and 4800 but market expiered at4750.
looks like all the fii holidays,weekly weekness ,rising wedge target of 4450 has trapped call writers and bears in general,a scenario like this was to develop so cross 5180 and go to new high as rhere were no triggers.
5200 ca writers seem to be doomed as of now.santa help them
Nifty Spot likely close above 5142 - which is weekly 5HEMA !
100 comments....all bears crushed kya?????
one request lingo bro, just start a new thread if comments cross 30-40, it gets difficult to read like this
true aarvee9..but the reluctance of call writers at 5200 levels looks quite contrarian now...maybe there is another twist here..as it has been a immense supply zone..lets watch tom...
the comments also have crossed a century for first time perhaps..the participation is incr immensely..
..and the option lovers - the Max Pain is shifting from 4900-5000 towards 5000-5100!
strategy2 update for today:
ltp for
5200 jan pe at 156 sold at 170
nifty fut at 5157 sold at 5145 with sl 5183.
we shall review the same with time.
bye everyone.
regards,
ankit.
Dear Prosenjit
I posted my views early morning as i was observing for few days the way puts were sold and thought my views will be helpful.
Wishing everyone a merry xmas.
Regards
Akash
Hi,
Do continue to post OI here as may want it & i'm not against it :)
If you guys find open interest of options more important, pls visit following links for easy views. both are real-time. [hope it would be helpful]
1. http://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/fo/optionKeys.jsp?symbol=NIFTY&instrument=-&date=- [[[first & last column contains OI for Calls & Puts respectively]]]
2. http://www.chartreader.co.in/search/label/PCR [[[PCR = put call ratio, you can find explanation in the same blog or in Investopedia.com]]]
3. http://oitracker.marketcalls.in/
Hi, cloudless,
u r not sorry at all.
ur last comments even hurts more!
cloudless,
Nice links.
I will follow ilango sir and OI from your link.
Btw I can take *decision wat to do with my position* and dont need you to help :)
If made profit its mine and loss its mine.
Thnx
helo ilango
your reply to me on 18th dec is very good guide for me to know the trend reversal using daily emas
also you are cautiong about over sold positions. dialy emas are very useful
thank u so much
syamala
hi,
removing comments as administrator feels things getting disturbed.
I'm whole heartedly sorry for wasting everyone's time & hurting. bye.
regards
Cloudless
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