Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ...
84 comments:
Hi Ilango,
Read two words today "Analysis Paralysis" and "Information Abundance". Immediately it stuck me that the market is suffering from both. Too much +/- analysis of factors and constant/contradicting information avalanche has made the market a "staggering drunkard" (may be one more chart point as the hanging man !").
Wish for the sake of all it makes a move - either way.
Good Day.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Still Nifty Futer data is on lighter side,it is not supporting bears, so market is reluctant to go down.This situation for small day traders can be decribed like this "DIL ME MANDI MARKET ME TEJI".
It looks like nifty is going to end the month in between 5000-5100(seeing bear camp @5100CA and 5200CA and huge OI in 5000PE).
Although some aggressive 4800PE addition is been seen so far .... total OI added in 4800PE is 2.3L so far and its the second most traded puts after 5000PE which added 3.2L in OI.
Are bulls stepping back for the time being ? Lets watch.
The monthly trading range is about 550-600 points. THis month so far it has been just 180 points. I feel we will see a roller-coaster ride next weeks for those additional 320-400 points trade. If 5000 is protected, bulls can take it all the way to 5500+; Even if we retest the recent lows of 4800, we may still see 5300+ by end of December. If bears are able to protect 5180 then we may see 4650-4680 levels. Lets tighten our belts for this ride next two weeks for a range 4650-5180 or 4800-5350 or 5000-5550! Good Luck everyone!
Dear Mynac & Prosenjit,
Very Nice & regular inputs.
I also appreciate Shaq for his regular updates.
Keep going!
hello,Ilango
11 am close at 5017
Prosenjit, a small correction plz.......actually 4800 PE had only seen 21600 addtion of OI today while 4900 PE had accumulated 204600 till this mintue.
5100 CE writing is solid, as you said, having put up 6 lacs since morning...
one thing......when NS was hovering around 5023 and 5033 there was a change of NF OI to the tune of 8 Lacs coupled with the increase in writing of 5000 PE......basing this, I get a feeling 5000 might resist us from sliding.......but am too immature to comment on that......
I would request Illango sir to post his views on the above premises.
thank you
Yes, Mahindran..I entered the "Day" correctly but "Hour" messed up.
Thanks.
Ilango Sir,
I don't see great conviction in the sell off, we may go higher till 5060 and then retrace again.
Sanjay
Janki, this is December better not expect 600 point swing.Volume will die from next week.If this Dec is special then who knows.But seeing the ammount of 5100CA and 5200CA I dont see we even touching 5100, on the lower side as ilango sir said 4920-4900 is possible but buying will come and may end in between 5000-5100.
ka, I may have got the wrong data.You are right.
Hi, Cover your shorts at 5030 : go long now, target 5060 then 5080.. short covering going to be after 2 pm.. take care.. Anandan.R
Anandan
Any basis for this news or is it just a gut feeling?
Cheers
Akhil
hi ilango
i have short position at 5084 sl 5067 . i think we can add more short position if close below 5000 its 50 day sma t-4850 100day sma.close below 5000 daily trend turn down.
Thanks
Anandan are you counting on europe recovery pushing us higher.
See hangseng and japan now, I think we will end the week with down tone.
lol..As some one has rightly said to me yestd..Neither bull nor bears its fox who is winning at the moment.
Cheers
Akhil
Highest Open Interest build up seen on 5100 Call this week.It seem mkt will not able to cross 5100 atleast in current series.
Here is December month data for last 4 years
12/2005 : 215 points (ATR(20):186 points);
12/2006 : 390 (265)
12/2007 : 509 (381)
12/2008 : 540 (600)
12/2009 : 180 points so far (current ATR 566);
Hi All
Dollar index has shot up in last 15 mins.Longs be carefull.
Cheers
Akhil
approaching 80L OI on 5100CE...and 60L on 5000PE..dont know how to read it,bcz intraday OI additon cld distort the numbers...this is turning out to be one massize squeeze...anyway Shanghai has dropped another 2% today...
Akhil you have got it right. :) Closed Shorts at 5015 to evaluate next week.
Akash
Hi Ilango
Can you please post abt reliance on ur Wealth blog.I feel reliance is dragging this market yestd also it was not moving and today also its not moving much.
Cheers
Akhil
one doubt plz.....where do you find the dollar index stats ?
Hi Ka
Ilango has posted a link for it in Live Market to Watch section.its the last link in it.
Cheers
Akhil
oh, thanks Akhil, I got that.Am sorry.
hai akhil,...wat if dollar index shots up !wat if it falls !how to use that in nifty?
can we get the intraday nifty chart with volume
Hi
With my limited knowledge the current trend is if Dollar rises up its bad for Emerging markets if it moves down its good.
Anyone wants to put more light on this topic.
Cheers
Akhil
ok akhil .. thank u
Akhil,
You are right,however in a rising $ if a market is not correcting then its best not to short equity.
There could be a short covering on $ and post cool off equities rally.
Akash
@ appu - U can get it from your broker..
@ Ilango - Is nifty is forming wedge formation resistance @ 5046??
Thanks in advance.
Regards
Hi Akash
Last week first time when dollar rose suddenly I read the Yahoo front line Market rises with rising dollar and very next day DOW closed almost 100 pts minus and that day headline was "Markets falls due to strong dollar".
If not today tomm we might also fall..
I feel keep ur STL right and rest leave it on market.
Cheers
Akhil
Sir, nifty spot just breached todays high at pivot level and again come down! any significance and is there any reversal possible today say at least to 5060 levels?
hi..Sujatha,
Nifty has breached the channel res. briefly and falling. Above 5060-5067, it will reverse as per the chart above. Below 5015-5020, it will continue the fall.
Selling 5200CA will be the best option now.With the huge wall of 5100CA Nifty cant go past 5100.At month one can get the premium 24/- of 5200CA as profit.
oh there you go...some relief..party begins
S&R for Shorts revised @ 5032.
Is it possible that we will close today below 4952, Weekly Low EMA
Hello Mr Anandan..Now is it short covering or long unwinding.
Cheers
Akhil
Illango sir.....can we go long now at 4995 NS for a small bounce ?
ka, let the dust settle and then go for some long.... :)
ok a observation is 5000 PE (down to 56L now,from a near high of 70L today) is fast shedding its OI...and 5100CE is slowly adding OI..(80L now)
u seem to be right....for every 5 mts there seems to be 5 lac addtion of OI in nifty which is dragging it down......in the last 15 to 2o mts i have seen nearly 70 lac added.
Hi..Akhil,
"Anandan" gave us a good lead yesterday for the intra rally. Sometimes things do go against our expectations. We will use the inputs & manage the trades ourselves. I want people to share their views with out the fear of failure. I hope we all understand this important factor.
hi..ka,
One can book partially the shorts at the next low around 4970-4980NS. OR carry it with a S&R at 5032
hi all
nifty gives a breakdown , medium term trend down ,hold short close below 5003. t-4920-4801.
sell at current level also sl 5067
Dear Ilango,
Well, I am back and profiting from your views. More on the positional side and so everyday volatility does not hurt me acyually makes it better. I wanted to actually buy TCS 740 call and Tata Steel 600 calls as both these stocks still seem to be standing or moving upwards, your views please. Also advance tax numbers were very positive in both these cases which may not be a complete indicator but maybe there could be an opportunity. Best regards,Kapil
Hi..Ashutosh,
As new lows are made, weekly low ema drifts lower. Nifty will not close below that unless falls another 100 points. In the coming week, more lows are likely.
Hi Ilango,
Would like to know, at what level the 5 wave move down from 5182 will be completed.
Because last time we saw a dramatic reversal after complting 5 wave move.
Thanks & regards
Ilango sir,
In the comments posted today under the nify premarket view you had mentioned that the correction from 5063 might go down to 4969 as per the wave formation. Does it hold good now or can we expect more lows say 4900 levels?
Sir, I covered my intraday shorts at 5020 levels and have gone for short again below 5000 levels! what could be the stoploss for this trade?
The following was posted in the morning comments and it holds good even now. Hence, I advised to book partially or for a S&R @ 5032 for the day.
If a make EW count in "1,2,3,4,5", then 4th ended @ 5063 @ yeaterday's high. Often the 5th equals 1st. 1st fall was from 5183 to 5089=94 points. based on this , 5th may end @ 5063 - 94 = 4969 which is the gap area.
Alternatively, if it is an "abc-x-abc" kind of fall, then it can go deeper down to 4900 or your level of 4860.
Hi..Kapil,
Happy to hear you doing well. Ultimately the judging & execution is done by you.
IT stocks seem to be in their 5th wave up(Last) and the dollar rally will help them.
Tata steel - whether this current upmove is only a relief rally or the last upmove as was seen in SAIL - I will update this week end.
Bulls will try hard to close Nifty above 5005,if they want to keep their fights.
Hi,
Dont worry nifty will not go below 4970.
Gagan
satheesh,
You have shorted @ lower levels. Just take some points.
spot has touched 4979...5k PE OI at 54L
Ilango, Is it necessary that the gaps always gets filled?
Bears yet to make the bottoms up for the month..... 5000PE -1.04L and 5100CA +8.96L , 5000CA +10L
With the 5000CA figure it looks like bear ready to next nest for few days now.
Hi Prosenjit,
If 5100 CA OI is increasing why the bears ready to next for few days low
pls explain.
gagan
There is an old saying that the market abhors a vacuum and all gaps will be filled. While this may have some merit for common and exhaustion gaps, holding positions waiting for breakout or runaway gaps to be filled can be devastating to your portfolio. Likewise, waiting to get on-board a trend by waiting for prices to fill a gap can cause you to miss the big move. Gaps are a significant technical development in price action and chart analysis, and should not be ignored.
Courtesy:Stockcharts.com
Gaps have some meanings..strngth & weakness indicators.
Hii Ilango sir,plz tell wht we have to keep in mind before carrying shorts to next day?is it close below daily low ema??plz explain?
Sir below what levels does the uptrend supposed to reverse?
Put writers shifting to 4900 Put Option as the OI is only distance away from highest OI on 5000 Put.
Where as Call writers shifting to write calls of 5100 Call Option by adding highest OI on the 5100 strike price. Also it seems 5000 Call Option building up OI fast by adding more than 44Lac shares to 5000 Call Option.
Conclusion is Upside is limited to 5100 and range is shifting slowly and gradually downward.
Regards
Amit
4987 likely NS close, if this info helps anyone!
hi prosenjit..5000 PE has shed 6L ..now total OI is 50L..so thats a good reduction..5100CE has 80L OI
Hi..bizagra, Satheesh,
Today it is down.Closing below most avg.
For Monday, look for a close above 5 day ema. Again, it depends on time cycles, if you are trading based on hour, trade based on hour avg but keeping the day trend. When day trend is down, sell @ & above hour high ema for better return.
hi..Janki,
It helps. That is 13 week avg.
OI distri clearly shifting to 4900 in final few minutes now..4900 OI(53L) has crossed 5k PE(49L) OI ...
All OI guys have guided beautifully today and that merged with TA & EW. Thank you Shaq, Prosenjit, Akhil,Amit, ka, Mynac.
you are welcome sir..and thanks to prosenjit,akhil,ka and mynac
Instead,Thanks to you Dear ilango.You have encouraged us to study the market.Your guidence is the key here.
Ilango sir, now suppose 5 day ema comes to 5015 and we closed 4985, that means trend for monday is down.M i right??as trend of monday is down we can short near hour high ema for better trades?m i going right sir?
and also we can keep 5 day ema as positional SLs?
Yes, Bizagra,
You got it correctly.This experience will turn to some kind of intuition for you in future.
One more query sir, when u give trade 4950-4980 to 5030-5040. Can we have 4940 and 5050 as stop and reverse levels if we take up a trade?Plz reply to all my messages when ever u r free.
Thanks a lot for teaching me so many things.
As I said earlier best option in this market is to write 5200CA.
Also one can write 4800PE as market may not break down below 4800 by expiry.
I believe both the the option can give *SAFE* profit(The premium) , but right now I will write calls rather than puts( seeing the tall building in the 5000,5100 and 5200 calls).
Thanks to all for the thanks.Its my pleasure to be here.
Hi, Sorry today my understanding went wrong.. Big FIIs and MF take advantage of basket order sale.. that is why market went down sharply... I am sure the same FIIs and MF purchased heavily on Nifty heavy weights RIL and SBI and other Banking stocks, It is like Bottom Fishing by FIIs and MF... Small Investors may be trapped like this.. wait and see, Monday NSE will be up at-least 80 points at the end... very soon it will touch 5100.., Illangoji always great, I appreciate his views, & also It will work 100%, take care.. Anandan.R
Hi All
I am thankful to Ilango under whose guidance we are able to earn.
I had 5000 calls today so booked minor losses but my shorts which I carried from 4950 are still alive.
Oops Anandam I was enjoying the match and just read ur post otherwise I wouldn't have closed my calls in losses.
But I think I am learning it hardway to let my SL triggered and not to fall in trap of options.
Cheers
Akhil
Cheers
Akhil
Anandan,
How do you support your view of 80 point rise and "Bottom Fishing by FII and MF"? They told you ?
Please let me know.As per as I see on the option data nothing like that happened.I may be wrong.
Thanks in advance.
Anandam
I am sorry I was little rude at that time..
Wishing all of us lots of profits.
Xmas to Holi offer is on now a days by FII's..
Cheers
Akhil
Ilango sir,
Have u noticed the number of comments today.Its becoming a good plaform to learn and execute trades during market time.
Cheers to everyone here
Bye
Akhil
Illango Sir,Akhil
Monday we will have century.
Sirs, apologies each one of you for my no-response to your valuable messages addressing me.........I was caught up with marathon meeting because of which I could not even trade from 2.30 PM and also missed all the above msgs.
Thanks each of you.....take care and have a nice weekend.
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