....................Nifty is near the resistance zone 5095-5115.
********************************************************
As suggested in the EOD analysis, "upsides possibility above 5050"- Nifty gapped up above 5050 and moving up.
Any weakness will find supports @ 5040-5035.
Hour Chart updated @ 11.55AM.
50 comments:
Hello Ilango Sir,
Is the support @5040-5035 Derived from the daily pivot @ 5033 or the Day' low @ 5038.85.
And according to 5 min ORB is it a buy above 5068 with SL of 5033.
Hi..Satyamurthie,
Day's low is "5054.50"..(Check it out here:
http://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/charting/OnlineContractIndexChart.jsp?instrument=FUTIDX&symbol=NIFTY&expirydate=31DEC2009&optiontype=&strikeprice=&indexname=S%26P+CNX+NIFTY&charttype=ONLINE_CONTRACT_INDEX&series=EQ&mkttype=N&key=&segment=FO&symb=&flag=0
Support mentioned was 5 day ema and 5 hour low ema..
Sir
The Day's low according to the contract chart is 5053.05 if i am not wrong. But, at the top the contract low mentioned is 5046.Please clarify
Hi..satyamurthy,
I take the traded value only.
If you mask the first 2-3 minutes and then move the cursor on top of the graph, you will notice the first traded value in F&O is 5051. So take that as low in NF. Similarly for the spot, the low is 5054.50
hi llango,
cud u post an updated hourly chart, so that we know where we stand in the comparative fractal.
seeing the pre market hourly chart it looks like we might fall tomm noon...
regards,
ankit.
Yes i have cleared my doubt after viewing the chart
Hi..ankit,
I have posted the "Hour" chart.
Fractals relevance will be valid upto 5115 approx. and definitely a "No" above 5138.
Hello Sir,
If Nifty breaks the resistance of 5115 then can we go for a buy as per the stop and reverse mentioned by you in your pre-mkt view?
sir above 5138...how do we interpret the count when it happens...i see a lot of call buildup at 5200 now...since we will have a higher high and prev was lower high compared to 5182
Hello Ilango sir, so we conservative traders sud keep SL as 5117 or 5138?
Sir can we go short now with 5115 as stoploss?
Dear sir,
Can we buy put of 5200
For intraday trade?
Hi Satheesh,
As of now it is only a SL.
Hi..Shaq,
If it clears 5138 also, it is still a corrective but a complex one. Clearing 5182 will be bullish. Let us see how these prices unfold.
Hi..Bizagra,
Conservative traders, if traded their shorts each day(3 days) by buying @ the open and selling at certain critical levels mentioned in my posts, would have earned well.
SL as per our method is 5138 but I have kept it as 5117.
Hi..
I am not advising to "Short" now as no weakness is visible.
However, one can short near 5095-5105 with a SL of 20 points.
Hi..
I am not advising any shorts as no weakness is visible.
If you want to try some aggressive shorts, short @ 5095-5105+ with a SL of 20 points.
Hi.. bigara,
I m in long side from @5005 yesterday. My SL 5040 now, I think today is my rare off day (I m now in bullish side until situation change).
I want to help u now. First tell me,
1. Have u recovered from your 220 pts lost from ur 1st conservative trade. Specially after my recommendation of 'aggressive shorts from 5087 (sl 5111 on nov 26) & change ur sl (by 20/30) pts if trade is going to ur favour'. After that, next day Ilango's clear update during market hour 'nifty is going to reverse from 4820 level, target 4935. U must have recovered ur money & in profits. If not, tell me ur trades last 1 wk. I'll help u out now.
Hi Hemanta,
I shorted nifty @ 5050 yesterday @ buy 5000PE Today, please suggest me best can i hold or exit?
Hi Hemanta,
I am sorry to ask you this help, I booked huge loss in nifty and options, could you please guide me how to recover this.
Ilango, how are the asian and the US markets looking? few days ago, you had posted about HangSeng being totally in grip of bears and targetting 19500? Is it a total reversal there as well?
Hi..Rishi,
Only Hangseng has clearly broken the One year channel quite sharply and it is in the "Corrective rally" stage. The target still remains.
Ilango, at what point do you think we say that it is not a corrective rally in HangSeng any more? And, the same for Nifty? Nifty has recovered 100% from where it started the downmove...so maybe it is time for going long in conservative trade as well??
The previous scenario given by Ilango on Expanding triangle, seems higher possibility. This may take Nifty close to 5500 by December End/ Jan 10. After then there is huge possibility of massive correction. Till then buy on Dips strategy may work.
Hi, dinesh
As Ilango says stop loss 5117 then 5138(maximum)
As per my money management technique(based on my mathematical statistical data since 1995) ur first sl was max 30 (@5050+30=5080, next 5050+30+30=5110.
Don't lose too much money.. it hurts.
Hi.. H20,
I'll help, just wait.
Happy trading with beloved Ilango.
Hi..Rishi, Rajvada,
It is tough trading such corrective moves..One of the reasons why I started "Trading my shorts" in the conservative trade.
last fall of 5182-4539 was retraced by 93% @ 5138.
93% of the fall from 5138 to 4807 comes @ 5115.
Market's choppiness need to be traded by combining Hour TA, EW, Tech table, etc..There are times, you are confident of a particular out come. These days , there are so many possibilities that I hold back myself from posting all these as it would become an academic excercise.
The lower highs of 5182, 5138 is continuing and the higher lows of 4539, 4807 also continuing..At the end of it all, there could be false break out too. Let us play, then, OB & OS..
Ilango, thanks for your great and detailed explanation...now one more question, hopefully my last :)
you had also mentioned about fractals in your previous posts...so since, we are in the third one at the moment, at what point you say that everything is going as per the fractals or not...and at what point does the fractal set up invalidates??
My advice to all new traders:
Don’t play with OPTIONS until u r experienced as Ilango.
It is much risky (specially option writing). U can lose ur entire capital by overnight.
I use option only for hedging for overnight positional trades only (very rare).
Happy Trading with beloved Ilango.
Hi..Rishi,
At NS 5115(93% retracement), fractal should complete and there should be a reversal.(+/ - 15 points).
Moving above 5138, fractal gets invalidated.
Hemanta,
In my view unless u make some foolish trades and loose money no one will get the seriousness to learn to trade. So in a way there needs some heating to set into a mould of sucessful trader..
Regards
Prakash
i guess we either have a false breakout soon(seeing dow futures jump)or nifty wont be denied this time after 7 months of range bounding...
Sir,
I hve shorted @5065 (F) weekly resistance level to day. carry the shorts or hedge with any call.Kindl advise
Thanks
Sir I have short Nf @ 5025 Yt should i do keep asl of 5117 or make an average at 5125 again?
Plz sugest.
hii Hemanta sir, thanks . In my last one week trade, first i shorted @5040 covered @4840 and then again shorted @ 4920.This short i m holding till now with SL 5138.Kindly help.
Thanks again for helping me.
Anuj Agarwal
Ilango, again thanks for all your help. Looking forward for this fractal set up for once to come true :)
5120 on spot...Futures are already in 10 pt disc..so the fractal shld come now else it will be late
*premium sorry
hai ilango sir hav shorted nifty @5085 fut nifty spot has touched 5117 wat is ur trade ...!
Ilango sir/Hemanta sir, sud i exit shorts as 5117 crossed or sud i see 5138?Plz help.
Anuj
shaq, how is future in discount? futures at a premium at the moment...am i missing something here??
Hi..Bizagra,
If you can , hold with a SL of 5138.
Hi..d.a,
Long @ the open as it started above 5050(as per my EOD) and closed it @ 5097.
Short(@5050 of 26.11.09) got stopped.
Hi Bizagra,
Do not play with your trades else mkt will punish out badly,trade with strict SL as per your risk appetite & money management.
And never ever carry your losing positions,stay with only positive trades what ever they are intra or positional coz mkt is was & will be always supreme not we as human being.
Regards,
Ilango, should we still hold shorts if today 5138 holds but it closes somewhere near the high? Very high probability of tomorrow being a gap up day in that case and accruing more losses...what is your suggestion??
it is in premium..i corrected it immediately...arnd 10 pts now..
Hi..Rishi,
Exit shorts..
Hi, Bizagra,
As Ilango said max sl 5138(MAX 5145), USE TRIGGERED SL(as gapup expected).
There is a serious fault in ur money management (I don’t know how many friends here like u, but there is many). I'll help u all.
First advice for u:-
TAKE UR EVERY TRADE AS AGGRESSIVE TRADE FROM NOW. UR STOP LOSS 20-30 POINT.
CHANGE UR SL BY 20/30 AS (TRIGER SL) AS MARKET GOES IN UR FAVOUR.
As far as my mathematical research on Nifty:-
Nifty moves in cycles of 0.6% to 0.9% (After that it is next cycle).
NEVER USE STOP LOSS BIGGER THAN THAT.
WITH 4920 TO 5138 =220 POINTS U MAY HAVE 8 TO 10 AGGRESSIVE TRADE @ MAJOR SUPPORT/RESISTANCE (from Ilango chart). NET RESULT 500++ POINT PROFIT (may be 1000+ pts).
I am very sad. I'll help, pls read all of my comments (from older posts) past 1 month here (as per market moment that time). I’ll post all required strategy time to time here. Follow Ilango’s every post here.
Don't loose too much money in a single trade. I u have to loose 200pt, it must be in 7/8 trade. Remember that simple thing u'll be a net winner.
Happy trading with beloved Ilango.
Ilango said...
Hi..
I am not advising to "Short" now as no weakness is visible.
However, one can short near 5095-5105 with a SL of 20 points.
December 1, 2009 12:41 PM
Ilango said...
Hi..
I am not advising any shorts as no weakness is visible.
If you want to try some aggressive shorts, short @ 5095-5105+ with a SL of 20 points.
December 1, 2009 12:43 PM
Dear Ilango Sir,most of the time u r short on the market.Normally u don't suggest longs as much as shorts!!!!!!!If U don't mind can I know the reason sir?
J.V.N.REDDY
Sir, now is it a sell in nifty?
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