Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Nifty's few possible scenarios..

A simple EW and the continuing higher high & higher low leads to the preferred scenario in the chart below.
Though other possibilities are not shown in the chart, here are those:
1. Nifty can correct once again from here to 4970-4950 and then move up for new highs. But the TA parameters & volume do not support an immediate correction.
2. If a fall in world mkts is seen, then we may reverse from here...bearish case for which 4990 has to be breached & then 4920.

6 comments:

Sujatha said...

Changes only unchangeable?? :)

So, we should be ready to be for anything, it's applicable for life too...

Thanks for your alert :)

Regards

Akhil said...

Hi Ilango

I requested your Excel sheet few days back but didnn't recieved it.Request you to please send me ur excel sheet on akhil20@gmail.com

Also I saw a divergence in RSI during the last 30 mins so I closed my Long position.Do u think I should re enter at such high levels again?

Regards
Akhil

Ilango said...

Hi..Sujatha,

It has been my experience that when ever I felt I have figured out this market, it throws up a surprise. So I have learnt to keep both "Bull & Bear" views in my mind. Still I miss on certain days and regret not being more consistent.

The more you are awake, the more chances of being on the right side.

Hi..Akhil,

You did the right thing of closing your longs. You can always find an entry point, take a fresh trade based on the world mkt cues on wed.

I did send the file. I have again forwarded it. Let me know if you have received it. For latest data, you can copy from the Tech table.

Best regards.

ilango

Abhijit said...

Hi Ilango,

Can you show me a way to ascertain nifty's monthly closing values using TA..

The range for accuracy can be + / - 100 points..

I am doing paper trade on couple of option setups like calendar spread and butterfly and this will help in enhancing the profit %.

I will await your comments on this.

Abhijit - jabhijit@idea7.net
Your silent admirer

Sujatha said...

Thanks for your valuable opinion as usual...

"The more you are awake, the more chances of being on the right side" - Well said sir,

On Friday mostly all r in bearish view, but i bought 5000, 5100 calls and made profit, but within 1/2 hr trade (during closing hrs) i lost my profit in puts :( shows my inability to control my - overtrading, compulsive trading, emotion etc.,

Thanks and regards

Ilango said...

Hi..Abhijit,

I will post monthly chart with some TA parameters later. As Oct series is a long one, you will see good choppiness, volatility that would favour option writers and it needs to be traded off - profits need to be taken off periodically.

Hi..Sujatha,

When you feel the market's direction correctly, then you need to curb your impulse to reverse your trade so quickly. Allow the market to spend its forces and let it show weakening undercurrent - both in bullish & bearish moves..

I did not stick to my well laid out plan. Thursday(08.10.09), the conservative trade got initiated @ 4940 but I failed to record it. It goes to prove time & again our own power of observations and our lack of self-belief. The only way out is to "Shut out" distracting news, channels, gossips, etc.,etc.

Best regards.

ilango

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