Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Nifty- 5 minute +ve divergence.

At 1.10PM:-Positive divergences continue..Nifty is quite close to its major support of 50 DMA @ 4845-4855 for a relief rally..???

Nifty shows +ve div in 5 minute time scale. Aggressive traders can go for a small trade here..(Against the main trend)..

19 comments:

Pratham said...

sir,

how do we analyse the price level with divergences.

as you said that price level(4918) shud confirm the + Div.

Regards,

Rishi said...

again longs got hammered....short on rallies should the mantra today with a target of around 4850...then revisit...

Unknown said...

Ilango ji

Should we go long here?

satya said...

sir iam longs at 4875 nf.i feel its agood buy for 50 point up move.your thoughts pleas

Ilango said...

Hi..Satya,

Good. Do as per your intuition to exit as you have done for entry. Above 4905, the resistance will be the morning lows of 4920+

Hi..askme,

I have posted the guidance. You need to act at the right time..

rajamani said...

hi ilangoji,

nifty 4900 ce + 17 lacs so i expect expiry around 4880-4920

regards
rajamani

Ilango said...

Hi..rajamani,

Thanks for the info..I will keep that in mind.

Rishi said...

not even a small bounce materializing near day lows....what is going on??

Rishi said...

50day EMA broken to the downside as well....

Sridhar Raghavan said...

I was just reading Martin Pring's book where he talks about the right angled broadening top pattern. In the case of Nifty, the bottom was at 4925 type levels. Breakdown from this pattern with high volumes is very powerful and target is equal to the height of the broadening top (5175-4925). So our target should be likely close to 4675. The speed of the fall is mostly because there are very few short positions in the market. The long bull phase has made people complacent and consequently there is not much chance of a short squeeze.

Ilango said...

Hi..Rishi,

This is the Technical support (4900) breaking fall inviting "delivery based selling"..Unlike the speculative selling where short covering supports the fall, here no support will hold till Selling stops..

Ilango said...

Hi..Sridhar,

Similar sentiments expressed at the same time..!!

Sridhar Raghavan said...

Incidentally, Pring also mentions that there is a likelihood of a pullback to the point of breakdown. So given that we are close to expiry, there may be a chance that we go back to 4900 sometime in the next couple of days. But I wouldn't bet on it... Nifty future is still at 10 points premium, so not too many shorts I guess.

Rishi said...

Sridhar...it should now test 4800 before coming higher towards 4900 on expiry day...lets see what plays out....Ilango, people that are holding positional shorts, what is your suggestion to them??

Ilango said...

Hi..Rishi,

Positional shorts need to hold it with the 2 day high as the SL now and may partially book out once another low is made either tomorrow or on settlement day.

rajamani said...

today`s selling with high volumes (total volume 1,39,000 cr)

shorts can rejoice as nifty is to close below 4900

regards
rajamani

Rishi said...

ok...got it...i hope we open 100 points down tomorrow :P

Sridhar Raghavan said...

If we do open 100 points down tomorrow, the party is on me :)

Rishi said...

i hope you get to spend :)

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