Thursday, October 29, 2009

Nifty Premarket View..

A more scary short term picture which is a probable scenario depending on 4727-4744 zone holding..

36 comments:

Unknown said...

can I sell nifty nov now @ 4795 for a target of 4725 ??

minni

Ilango said...

Hi..Minni,

We were looking out for a bottom around 4727-4744. Market has shown 4741 and it has moved above the 1st 15 minutes high(ORB 4784 - 4756 for NF)thereby giving an intraday buy.

I suggest you to sell higher around 4840 - 4865 whenever that may come. This NS rates..

rajamani said...

+ve divergence in 5 min charts

regards
rajamani

Sunny said...

hi sir good morning,
sir plz give me your comment and suggestion abt bank nifty.
thx a lot

Ilango said...

Hi..rajamani,

Yes, that is a very distinct +ve div and Nifty will inch its way up.

Hi..aplesh,

Bank Nifty too may follow Nifty by holding its today's low..

subrat said...

thx for yr updates

Light House said...

Sir,
i m short at 5116. is it time to book full profits.

Rgds
PK

market-gyaan said...

Hi Ilango,
I want your wave analysis on Jindal Steel & Power I bought 140 share at 477 & still holding it.Tell me is this right time to exit the stock or do you see more upside in it coming days. If possible pls post the chart with support & resistances along with wave analysis.
Regards
Amit Vora

Sathya said...

Sir,

When can we go long in nifty for 4840-4865 intra

Ilango said...

Hi..PK,

If you are short more than one lot, book out of 50%. Sell higher @ 4850 - 4910.
If not hold for more lows by Friday or early next week.

Hi..Amit,

I will do the needful.

market-gyaan said...

Hi Ilango,
Can you just tell me whether to sell it now or shall I wait for bounce and also pls tell me level where i can buy again.
Regards
Amit Vora

Dr. Jignesh Shah said...

dear ilango,
good morning.
-jignesh

Ilango said...

Hi..Doctor,

GM..What a surprise..How are you doing..??

Ilango said...

Hi..satyamurthy,

It looks like a very narrow ranging day..Buy closer to the lows with a tight SL below it. And try to exit with small profits.

Ilango said...

Hi..Amit,

Exit jindal partly on a bounce upto 690-710. Re enter @ 560-600 .

Capgainers said...

Hi Ilango,
Is it possible to reach these levels (4840 - 4865) today??

Ilango said...

Hi..Prabhanshu,

Nifty is stuck in a narrow range due to "settlement day" unwinding. It should come out of this range by Noon or after 2.00PM.

Nifty made its top much before world markets and it is quite oversold. Bounce, when ever happens, will lead to higher levels.

Today possible?? As 4800CE had highest OI, it may not be possible.

Ilango said...

Hi..Amit vora,

I have updated the "Stockwealth" blog with Jindal Steel & Power. Use it as a guidance and use your discretion to execute a decision. It is your money that you need to manage.

best regards.

ilango

Kapil Chopra said...

Dear Ilango,

As i will be travelling in November so I sold some 5300 calls earlier and 4400 put now, this gives me a good 8-10 % return without any hedges, I was wondering if I should now hedge 4400 put or what is the level if and when that breaks I should buy a nifty short future ?

Thank you

Kapil

saravanan said...

sir, if nifty close below 4792[y.day low] friday also gapdown? sir your view pl ?

Ilango said...

Hi..Kapil,

4400 PUT writing is ok. But 5300 is quite far away. I would suggest writing 5100 or 5000 Call when Nifty rallies past 4850-4890 which would give you more premium.

Whenever we see some bottoming or reselling opportunity, I will suggest some modifications. You have covered your grounds well for November
series.

I saw your "Bloomberg Interview"..It was really good and you looked quite at home out there.

Have a wonderful trip.

Keep an eye on your Hotel stocks on every panicky periods..EIH., Indian Hotels.

best regards.

ilango

market-gyaan said...

Thanks Ilango for posting chart of Jindal Steel & power.
Regards
Amit Vora

Ilango said...

Hi..Saravanan,

When a downtrend is maturing for the short term, such factors may not play out. Besides no method is foolproof.

Let us see how it turns out..

Sujatha said...

Mr. Saravanan is asking for below 4792 tomorrow is gap down?

My question is if 4760 holds fibo level from 5182 shall we go for long, cos usually after 7 consecutive days of downtrend, mkt may up for 8th day, will it happen this time too, + point is EST is "OS" level.

Thanks and regards

rajamani said...

hi ilangoji,

i hold november 2190 infy put option

could you kindly give me your views

regards
rajamani

Ilango said...

Hi..Sujatha,

This is the first down week below the weekly trendline and it has already come down so much and so likely to close Friday near the lower level. What we are speculating is the intra moves till tomorrow. It is quite deceptive. I have given list of stocks for short term bounce and many of the levels were reached to day itself.

About Nifty: As selling is happening on a rotational basis, nifty may stay subdued with an immediate resistance around 4830-4835.
Nifty will close above Hourly low ema @ 4767 @ 2.00PM. Next resistance is mentioned above and if it can close above 4840 in any hour..some strength..

Ilango said...

Read Hour close above 4800..in any hour.

Ilango said...

Hi..rajamani,

Infy has corrected for the negative divergence and it is in a neutral status having the possibility of an upmove too. For weakness, it need to break 2191 and then a major trendline at 2160.Only then it becomes a shorting one. You have taken a PUT in anticipation and that too at the beginning of the series. If nasdaq continues to weaken, that sentiment may drive down the IT stocks.
Otherwise Technically, it is still in uptrend with a neutral bias as of now.

Kapil Chopra said...

Dear Ilango,

Thank you so much, very kind of you !

You are really fantastic ! Time to short now or hold on ? it is 4820 ?

DKG said...

Hi Ilango,

I bought 5000 CE NOV Month @ 102.00 avg, please suggest me best

Ilango said...

Hi..Kapil,

It is trying to reverse for the short term. So not now..

Hi..Dinesh,

Exit when Nifty comes to 4875++. I will be updating Nifty progress too. Presently, Hour has given a short term buy.But resistance @ 4835..Nifty may fall back to 4800 before resuming up..These are all short term moves..

subrat said...

SIR NOW I THINK IT IS PURELY DELIVERYBASED SELLING AFTER INTRABOUNCE?SO WHAT IS BEST AS OF NOW?

saravanan said...

sir today nifty like your premarket view,[hr channel not broken up side] so more down ,without bounce, ? or any bounce on friday ?

Ilango said...

hi..Subrat,

Stocks selling continues..4720-4740 will be tested for supports by repeated visits.

Hourly buy in one hour and the next hour a sell..Higher time scale TA works in the end.

Conservative shorts continue..

Ilango said...

At the same time, aggressive Cash investments in "beaten down" stocks will offer some short term gains.

Ilango said...

Hi..Saravanan,

As long as it is within the channel, it is trending down.It may be on its 5th wave down..Many stocks are close to a short term bottom..

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