Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Nifty's fall stops @ the short term trendline.

Subsequent to the sharp rise from 4935 to 5152 in 3 days, Nifty has been sideways with a corrective kind of intra day moves. Holding above 5067, it can move higher too if world cues are +ve.. Internal weakness is visible in the prices of last 3-4 days but a confirmation of a reversal is due from the markets. Until then, trade..
Daily weakness continues and gets reflected in the hourly prices..Break below 5077 & 5067 is an early warning and a break of 5020 decisively may end this rally..
What are these averages signify..? asks "Sudhin Bathija"...
There are "close ema" (appears after the close price of week, day & Hour), "High ema" & "Low ema".

High ema- staying above it indicates upward momentum; below it downward momentum but if it stays above close ema during this period, it could simply be a correction.
Low ema- staying above it indicates uptrend is intact; below it the downward momentum increases..a follow up action is required.
Close ema- as highs and lows can be manipulated, the close price which is used to calculate most of the momentum oscillators plays quite an important price factor. Simply put, market is in uptrend above it and it is in downtrend below it in those time cycles.
These emas become useless once a trend is in place and they come to play some roles once a correction sets in after "OB" or "OS" situations.

There are more averages below the pivot table with colour changes depending on thier prices.
Avg: is a simple average which gives equal weightage to "n" number of period. for eg: a 5-day avg is calculated using last 5 days closing prices thereby giving equal weightage to all the past 5 days.
ema:emas are exponential moving averages which is calculated using a mathemetical formula that gives more weightage to the more recent prices thereby considered to be more dynamic as well as volatile.
Whenever "ema" value is more than the "avg" value, it means bullishness and whenever the "ema" value is lower than "avg" value. it signifies weakness/ bearish.
3, 5 ,10 are considered for short term; 20,30 days are considered for medium term; 50, 100, 200 days are considered for long term. These can be experimented with as market is evolving all the time. More traders become aware of a certain method or a pattern, a likely failure is possible. So keeping an open mind but at the same time using our own experiences manifested as our "Intuition" can guide us tremendously.

7 comments:

Akhil said...

Hi Ilango

I will be thankful if you could resend me the excel sheet as I am finding difference in the table updated by me.May be there is a wrong entry some where coz of which its happening.
I will be thankful if you could send it at akhil20@gmail.com.

Also I will be thankful if you could tell me from where I can download data regarding OI of Nifty Future and calls on NSE website.

Regards
Akhil

Sujatha said...

Thanks for your lessons...

46 comments??? the highest ever in 2009, i am getting tension... send me the "art of patience" thro telepathy or healing :)

Regards

violet said...

thank you sir i received mail Nifty Tech & Pivot Table

Anonymous said...

high/low ema of which time frame to follow?
i.e hourly, daily or weekly, which one, sir, for positional trading?

Shirshendu Ghosh said...

Sir, can you share this table with an hourly basis??

Ilango said...

Hi..vvvvv,

For positional, use week & day combination. In certain highly choppy markets, even hour may come into play.

Hi..Shirshendu Ghosh,

I have posted at crucial junctures the updated table. However, committing requires uninterrupted time to markets which I do not have on a consistent basis. When ever I am free, I devote my time to updates and queries.

I can, ofcourse, send you the excel file which is not difficult to update..

However, I will try & do it as much as possible.

Best regards.

ilango

GANESH PL said...

Sir,

Please can you send me the excel sheet and technique to my mail box. I am thankful to your good and dedicated work.

gangaiganesh@gmail.com

Thanks.

Regards,
Ganesh.

Post a Comment

Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)

IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....