I misread it.
When in downtrend, if world mkts are positive, go short only..Sorry, guys.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Nifty update..5th down wave in progress...
This was the chart posted at the end of yesterday's trading. As per this, due to positive world cues we got the opening bounce and now going down in the 5th wave towards sub 4700..Next supports come at 4685, 4650 & 4600.
I misread it.
When in downtrend, if world mkts are positive, go short only..Sorry, guys.
I misread it.
When in downtrend, if world mkts are positive, go short only..Sorry, guys.
Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ... -
If the steady FIIs inflow reflects in the prices, 5405 should be protected going ahead and market may encounter minor corrections and keep m...
30 comments:
ilango sir can we go short now??
Yes..
There are positive divergences in the hourly charts. But when the downtrend is strong, I guess the divergences can persist for a long time.
5th waves are fast and swift and below 4750, the most reliable support comes @ 4550-4600.
Yes, divergences can persist. One should buy only when the prices move above a short term average..
what could be a good resistance now to go short?
Hi Ilango,
Banknifty is outperformin..
Whats your take on it?
Thanks,
Neil
hi..ranajay,
Any intra bounce upto 4738 or simply short and hold with a reasonable SL.
This being a 5th wave down (to end in a day or so), either aggressively stay short till 4650-4600 or wait for 4600 to come to buy for a rally...
Ilango sir, Today is 8th day (fibonacci number ) from high of 5182. This could be a temporary bottom since we have fallen 500 nifty points and there could be a small bounce back on the cards. Ur opinion sir?
The yahoo RT chart I have posted above must viewed in large size. I m giving u the link again with large view. U can trade confidently with illango and my following RT chart. HAPPY TRADING.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5ENSEI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=b&p=m50,m200&a=ss,r14,w14,m26-12-9&c=
Hi..Jayshah,
When Nifty makes another low around 4650, one can initiate some aggressive longs.
Cash investments in parts also can be done for short duration gains.
A clear positive divergence is developing in hour charts today.
4600 has acted as a strong support as well as resistance in the past 3 years. This view is only for the aggressive trade with a long weekend uncertainties in mind.
Or short @ 4738 with a SL @ 4780 for the rest of the day for a new low..
sir u gave hold shorts with a reasonable sl. What sud be sl, plz help, i m novice in technical analysis.
" There is no need to understand why market is going up or down. Market going up and down is because of myriad factors. What is most important is to follow the right trend." - Jessi livemore
Hm... really utter confusion for me, hence following the above since 2-3 days ,(my luck(!)), donno whether i will follow the above consistently or not,as i often loose my grip on the market.. anyway benefitted.
Thank u sir.
Regards
Thanks sir got my answer abt sl, are we carrying shorts for tuesday??Plz suggest as i shorted @4700.
Hi..Sujatha,
That is a wonderful statement...working overtime, I let go off the bigger picture. Glad to hear of your "keeping to a discipline"..and sharing the same here is doubly wonderful.
hi..bizagra,
Please..don't short at such low levels..If you want to short, wait for a retracement or a bounce & do it..
Reasonable is what your pocket can hold.
Technically it is quite far away @4795..
Keep 4745NS as SL..
hi sir plz give me view for sbi
hi..alpesh,
Trade the 2085 - 2235 range..
Dear Ilangoji,
we have corrected by 60% of rise from 14684 to 17493 very close to 61.8%.
Pankaj Shah
For a positional player, I think this should be a no-trade zone. If we assume 4550-4600 to be a good support and 4800-4850 to be a good resistance level, we are right in the middle of the range. Risk-reward becomes more favourable once the Nifty moves 75-100 points from here in any direction. Just my 2 cents.
Hi..Pankaj,
A strong weekly reversal fall will invite all around selling which is what being witnessed.
Hi..Sridhar,
Yes, you require the index to deviate before doing something or write options..which should have been done in the morning above 4800...now that itself looks so far away...
yes on weekly charts after a long time we will see macd giving confirmed sell signal today
hi..Pankaj,
A correction:
Market is correcting the entire upmove from Oct.08 low..!! as suggested by weekly reversal.
Delivery selling alone can be relentless..Big funds just have to exit or their executives may have to exit..!
well said...the way the markets closed and all heavy weights saw relentless pressure, I think we should be looking at a huge gap down on Tuesday...lets see what new week brings...
This has been a near vertical 10 day fall. I guess sometime soon, there will most likely be a consolidation which will form as a continuation pattern - pennant, flag, wedge, etc. That might give us time to reposition and get into positional shorts.
this is what happens...when their was a bear market rally from march to october, there were continous rise days with shorts getting squeezed like anything...now it seems the tables have turned..no chance to bulls at higher levels....
yes weekly macd came above triggerline in dec08end and today it has come below trigger line.
Perhaps nifty real support lies around 4600 [-20pt to + 30 pt]. It is the strongest support zone now.
Hi, Does this indicate the market trend has reversed from being Up to Down now. If yes, should we be adopting a sell on rise strategy?
Thanks
yes, shr market trend is clearly down(for last 6/7 days) untill atleast it closes above low ema 5, it is sell on every rise. but slowly we r getting oversold. now market has strong support 1)104 sma @4628, 2)historical support around 4600 (as says illango)and last time bounce back support @4580. rsi 2 is also very low now, so any time sharp bounce back possible from that multiple support zone. trade accordingly with market view from our beloved friend illango. HAPPY TRADING.
Thanks Hemanta for the details.
I am new to this blog (thanks to Pankaj ji's blog) and it is amazing. Great work Ilango sir.
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