Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Nifty, tentatively moving higher, has made a tentative 5th top..


14 comments:

shreya puneeth said...

So any guess of movement in nifty +350 or -350?

ankita said...

some days ago relief rally, then b out of bull flag, then all freen month, week, day up. now suddenly today big divergence marked. wow the analysis, Vth done or III pending.

ankita said...

do any one know where we are, so that losses will be low. thanksss

Amit Agarwal said...

Dear ankita, its no use to say anything about loss here. We all are getting loss since long but his analysis is alwaz ryt. Few days back some people asked for live trades, i thought they are unnecssary commenting but now it looks they were right. This kind of analysis can not help anyone in making profit, we are getting befooled only.

Ilango said...

Please read yesterday's EOD post wherein 5th Wave was marked.

Besides, in the Pre-Marked View, the following was stated:

Aggressively Holding above 7760(2-Hr low), Conservatively Holding above 7722(DEma), uptrend continues....

And then, during intraday, it was commented after the initial fall, to look out for weakness at 50 to 61.8% of the fall from 7809 to 7745 at "7777 -7785" and the market retraced 7779 and fell.

It was restated again on a reader's query again at 12.05 PM
@ Rajesh Singh,

50 to 61.8% at 7777 - 7785 is a resell zone(retracement for the fall from 7809 to 7745).

Since the fall resembles a 5 sub-waves, 80% at 7796 is relevant.
July 8, 2014 at 12:05 PM

Both Hour macd & Lead indicator charts were marked with downward bias.

There are enough "for the sincere" one whose interest is to learn & earn using periodic updates with observations to take vital cues from objective analysis.

The disappointed ones are those who come here for "Predictions".

rashmi said...

Very well explained.thnx sir!!

Prabhanshu Raman said...

@ Ankita, can you please share the trades which you took based on Sir's analysis and you made loss.
I have always noticed that, you just come, crib about Sir's analysis and then gayab. Again after few days, you will come back, crib and then again gayab. You never answered the questions asked by the fellow mates here in this blog. I am sure, you won't answer this as well.

@Amit Agarwal, same applies to you as well bro. I think this is the first time I am reading this kind of comment from you. What happen, just analyse, what trade you took, on what basis you took. I understand, if we can't believe on ourself, we look out for someone who can help us.
We need to understand, Sir, can not come and do trading for all of us. Thats why he is teaching us, so that we can do everything on our own.

Bro, trading ki duniya mein sirf 3 cheezein hi imp hai - LEARN LEARN & LEARN :-)

Bhavir said...

Sir .. I have been following your analysis and concur with the above. However during live markets I still am not sure of position sizing wrt to intraday analysis. Can you please help me with the same and whenever you find some time explain managing long term vs. short term positions.

For example suppose minimum requirement is to trade 2 lots.
1. Trade initiated on day timeframe
2. profit booked on half position at 50 or 100 points (as technicals work out)
3. now with the 2nd lot confusion arises about booking as per any intraday signals vs. not
eg. if I had a 2nd lot Long today; should I have covered it when day technical became week ~7650? OR how could I know I should sell at the hour weakness this time? (there are multiple hour weaknesses during a DAY upmove)

Besides, easier to create a shorts at hour weakness intraday and carry forward if I do not have longs .. but if I had the 2nd lot which I sell at day weakness @ 7650; then it's difficult to convert to short trade with SL being too far (more so when you've missed the intraday weak signal since one was long at that time)

I know there is no holy grail and each one can strategize per their capacity; but any guidance re: position sizing and converting from Long/short or vice versa is much appreciated.

Ilango said...

@ Bhavir ,

When you hold a positional longs wrt the day technicals and prices go against you, it was well explained this way:

Ilango said...
@ Sonu,

1. Nifty opened into Pre-Market's resistance;

2. Nifty retraced the first fall from 7809 to 7745 @ 7779, 50%-61.8% zone.

3. Nifty closed below 21 Hrsma at 1.00PM at 7734(21 Hrsma-7744)

4. Nifty closed below 34 Hr sma at 2.00PM at 7715(34 Hr sma - 7732)

These are the regularly followed methods for intraday.

Let JNSAR gets triggered, deal with it as per your choice- filter or no filter.

July 8, 2014 at 2:39 PM

These are the points that help in managing your trades, especially with the knowledge that Nifty is in its final 5th wave.

More observations were made to "alert"-

Ilango said...
Prices are holding at Day channel-7651 presently.

Weakness gets pronounced below it.
July 8, 2014 at 3:02 PM
Ilango said...
Day Macd(slow) turning down at such a juncture along with 9 day rsi at OB zone suggests of weakness ahead unless prices show reversal from here..
July 8, 2014 at 3:03 PM

I fully understand a trader's predicament while holding positions and prices reverse. Only a conditioned mind that can surrender to the unfolding prices, the truth, that can take them in the direction of successful trades.

Predicting is the easiest one but is full of dangers of horribly going wrong.

Following is like a blind man's walk but is founded on "Faith" which will take you safely thru' the minefield of the market.

Have tremendous belief in the few technical studies practiced here, unbelievably simple but if followed with discipline, rewards abundantly.

Rajesh Singh said...

IIangoji, I admit that I had good 1st trade after joining your blog. Entered on 30th June @7600 and got out today after 1st hr with 100 points on option. I was very coutious this week because of budget + overbought situation in W/D/H + Divergence in D/H timeframe..My last weekend Journal had below points
Weekly Update:
- Trend and momentum UP for weekly, Daily, Hourly.
- Weekly, Daily, Hourly in over bought zone for MACD/RSI/Stoch.
- Daily, Hourly showing divergence on MACD and RSI.
- Hanging Man reversal signal on Daily. (****this was negated in 1st hr of Monday trade)
- Fibbonachi target is around 7800.
- Budget on 10th July.

Infact I was looking for exit on Hourly SAR since yesterday. Exited during 1st hour.

I was always looking for method/system which can guide me the position/strength of market. This is wonderfully explained in your blog.

What market is doing
- Consolidation (between DHEMA and DLEMA)
- Trending (if not consolidating, then trending)
o Is trend strong or week. I consider it strong if D/H both above/below H/LEma

Also knowing above information, you have beautifully explained how to trade these situation.
Also knowing bit of Elliott helps me to position myself during initial or matured phase of trend.

Thank you so much for educating us...Hopefully someday we can be out of 9*5 job and have sense of independence

learner said...

if you have no faith in the system why come here? Profit or loss occur because of our understanding/misunderstanding only. Show me a professional/ expert who is cent percent correct not only in stock market -in any field. Why do not create your OWN system? Finally -beggars cannot be choosers.

Bhavir said...

Thank you sir. I know I mentioned earlier today that I have a follow up question, but reading your response again guess all queries answered.
Answer lies in the tentative label - knowing when to stop and reverse and practice more. THANK YOU :)

And when I said in my question that "I concur with above" - I meant I agree with you that there are enough clues and directions for the one willing to accept the market as is. Thanks once again.

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