Thursday, September 26, 2013

Nifty Intraday Update-III


81 comments:

Sachin said...

My expiry guess at 5930 ... @ JNSAR to keep everyone guessing

Sahil said...

Reposting--
My expiry Guess:5963
Reason:At 2 pm price is above HHEMA, 25th DHEMA and pivot Day R2 very close number.

Shyam Biyani said...

successfully crossed above 5895, this was 4th attempt since morning, Experts pls comment ???

SANPOT said...

Good afternoon Ilango sir and Blogmates. My expiry guess is 5942 dev.DHEma.

Viral P Rana said...

My expiry guess at 5841

Manish said...

Goodafternoon master and all friends,

Expiry guess 5925 nifty completes the "c" wave and then corrects...

Mukesh Honest said...

vksoni ji,,mera expiry guess 5932 hai jo aaj aur kal ki jnsar k bich hai..

Sonu said...

@Master,
Should this be considered a breakout?

dharmu mishra said...

as nifty above hly hema 5893,daily hema is at 5942
wave i from 5811 is done
as correction wave ii is done at 5864
wave iii is on
if i = iii it should complete at 5963 hence my nifty exp level will b 5963
respected llango sir shreeram sir applied all my brains but i know kuch bavkufi ke hogi maine
if u get time correct me by ur guidence thanks

Stockathon said...

Thanks Sir!

Will wait for the closing to take informed decision based on 21 and 34 HrSMA

eevra said...

expiry 5960 Day R2 ( near )

Ilango said...

@ Sonu,

The above Hour chart suggests so. And Day lead indicator is at OS zone.

However, watch the prices. As long as they continue making higher highs, it is "UP".

"5876", hence, becomes critical to Bulls.

Irfan said...

My expiry guess is 5900

Reason: Vix and open interest data

Shyam Biyani said...

My guess: 5930, Week's Fibo retrace (38% of 6142.3-5798.5)

Raghavendra said...

Dear All,

After making 4 consecutive days of Lower High - Lower low, today is the first day price have made a higher high - higher low till now + Hammer in yesterday's day chart.

Raghavendra

Stockathon said...

My expiry guess is 5880.

Reason is J10SAR and 21 HrSma.

dharmu mishra said...

respected shreeram
sir when u get time correct me for all my mistakes in understanding the waves for making the guess of nifty expiry level

shriram said...

@ Dharmu,

What will i guide? my own guess is approx. 100pts off the mark :-)

Follow Ilango's comments on EW & trail to prosperity

vksoni said...

contest closed
Thanks

vksoni said...

check your entry
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiuEr0q3LMk2dDV4RmRQa1RqWk0wQUpvYWcxNjEzWmc&usp=sharing

dharmu mishra said...

shreeram sir
boss is always right it is the correction of showing the correct way u and llango sir has guided me till now always for me i feel because of u both there r correction in my earlier mistakes but still lot is to b corrected thanks sir

raghu said...

Expiry at 5905. Reason : no if no but sirf jatt.

raghu said...

I know VKsoni..i was making fun of the contest..people have chosen numbers and then tried to find a reason for that. Also i think there should be 10-2- pt range provided so people can actually apply time cycle and ew to come up with an expiry range.

shriram said...

@ Raghu:

how can EW & cycle time help to estimate expiry ? Pls explain with an example

Ilango said...

5 sub-waves done from 5876 to 5918.

dharmu mishra said...

respected llango sir
how can v see the waves unfolding after correction of to 5864 level

anmpatel said...

@master
80% break..5913...is it important for any negation point?
thanks.

Yogesh said...

For Every Answer there has to be reasoning, that is Technical, and not Arrow in the Air, but that Reasoning has to be giving correct results most of the times, consistently.

sarvesh sharma said...

@ shriram, good one!!! i shall look forward to have an answer from raghu- the joke maker!

dharmu mishra said...

respected llango sir thanks for explainig the level of 5sub wave done

Ilango said...

@ dharmu mishra,

Only practice and application of basics.

raghu said...

@ Sriram...these day you have been wandering too much for knowledge..fb also asking ppl questions..Anyways for example today around 2 hours is the time difference between lows and highs..ew wise we are up in a correction from 6142-5811 or a new upmove for the new highs above 6142 but not above 6229..Baki you are ok at counting waves, you can figure out larger cycles.

Manish said...

'a' does 5918 to 5888 30 points expect 'c' to do a=c minimum

Ilango said...

@ anmpatel ,

5938 to 5811 retrace gets cancelled out;

6033 to 5811 would come in.

Similarly, Keep track of retrace for the intraday rise from 5876 to 5918.
80% @ 5884.

shriram said...

@ Sarvesh:

It was not meant as a joke, as i avoid ridicule. Prefer a direct attack on the face :-)

But this claim needs to be backed up with some logic.
Lets wait n watch if he comes up with a explanation that holds water. If he does, it will be a new learning for sure!

Raghavendra said...

Dear All,

A NR7 day in progress so far.

Nifty making higher high above 5937 and a lower low below 5845 will invalidate the pattern.

Pattern implication : Range expansion in next 2 days.

Raghavendra

verash said...

tug of war at 5900. Writers scoring all the points

Saurabh said...

Dear Sir..

With just 2 days to go for the monthend isn't it time for the monthly trend assertion, however the weekly trend being up, tomorrow should be the day when it will decide which trend will prevail

Please guide ?

shriram said...

@ Raghu: where i wander to seek knowledge , need not be of concern to u

Coming to ur obsv,

1. 2 hrs is the time between prev his & lows, is no guarantee that this rise will also take 2 hrs
2. How do u say we will expire @ 5905, that you have not explained
3. How u can rule out the Rise from 5811 as a whole new impulse. That also needs justification

This post doesnt past muster, sorry

raghu said...

@ sarvesh..its good you are learning from the great illango ji..but there is a bigger world outside...i jus wanted to make a point that people are shooting in dark and there should be some sound reason behind guess..

raghu said...

@ sriram..that was an example try the bigger cycles and you get the picture if you wud look...read again i dint rule impulse i said it cud go above 6142 but not above 6229..

shriram said...

@ Raghu:

Why cant it go > 6229 pls ?

Okay said...

Master

If 30th close is below 6023 (MHEMA), last month close was below MLEMA. That should imply bearishness continuing for MT?

Ilango said...

@ Okay ,

That would imply a sideways market.

raghu said...

@ sriram there was a weekly neg div between tops at 6111 and 6229 with a dip below zero on macd..and after that we have dipped below zero and until we have a pos div on daily or if the down move takes longer, on weekly, we wont make a new high.

sarvesh sharma said...

@ raghu, i would love not to answer your question about how and why i make choices. thats none of your business
if you have so much problem about shooting in the dark, why dnt you start helping people , start a blog and make that bigger outer world get into that blog and help us..stay there in your world with peace..both of the worlds ,your and mine will be happy
3rd you have added to shooting in the dark..trying to make fun without giving reason for your number of expiry.
actual problem is we are not face to face in this class.if that would be so, the mess that you and few other in different name try to create here would not have taken place in first hand.
please stay away for your self respect and our peace of mind..
thank you..with regards and request to leave us alone..

dharmu mishra said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Prabhanshu said...

May be last bear flag in this series with bd below 5880??
:)

dharmu mishra said...

respected llango sir after completion of 5 sub wave which wave is in progress now sir is it 3 from 5918 pls guide

shriram said...

@ Raghu :

yes, but that be a part of an Expanded Flat too... as

a/i 6112 5477 -635
b/ii 5477 6229 752 -118.4%
c/iii 6229 5119 -1110 174.8%

Actually form wise, 6229-5119 seems a clear ZZ, so i would allot low Prob to the Expanded Flat lable above !

Doesnt pay to jump to conclusions in EW now, does it? :-)

Aly said...

Dear Ilango,

As nifty has broken below 5876 which is the starting point for last 5wave upmove, can we say that one 5 wave from 5811 has completed at 5918 and the ongoing wave is a correction to this 5 wave upmove

sometimesbullsometimesbear said...

If somebody is taking the trouble to organize and document a contest and people are willing to participate in it there should be no reason for anybody to be unhappy about it.

After all all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. Expiry contest is fun. Enjoy it.

Most days range bound markets can be very booooooooooooooring. So just Enjoyyyyyyyy.

Most offices have such side activities. It improves morale :):)

raghu said...

@ Sriram..the reason i am saying that we wont climb above 6229 is because at the lows there was no positive divergence..anyways you apply your methods i am gonna stick to mine..

shriram said...

@ Raghu:
Mathematically what is +ve Div. ?

& more imp. which indicator are u referring here, S.MACD / F.MACD / RSI / or SSTO ?


vksoni said...

sometimesbullsometimesbear
Highest participent recorded this time

raghu said...

@ sarvesh...dude you pointed out at me then it was fine and when i replied you cudnt digest..grow up..i jus wanted to say when the whole time it is being conveyed that we shudnt make predictions then on expiry also you should have some sound logic..While all the ew practitioners say that time analysis is not waorth the effort, may be through this contest people will get innovative and come up with ways to go about time analysis.

sometimesbullsometimesbear said...

VK Soni before congratulating the winner I must congratulate you for taking time and energy to volunteer to manage this exercise.... Great work buddy ..Thx so much and keep up the good work.:):)

Raghavendra said...

Congratulations Veerasamy and Stockathon

raghu said...

@ sriram..i mentioned macd..well precisely elliott wave oscilator i.e macd 5,34,5..a pos div is we above the zero line and come down again not to make the lower reading on ewo while prices make new lows.

shriram said...

@ Raghu:

MACD 5,34 is nothing but : 5EMA-34EMA on difference. T.fs .

How can it be MATHEMATICALLY explained to conclude if a particular wave was a 5wave or a 3wave Corrective?

Does MACD alone tell u the Quality of a WAVE? And 1st of all why choose 5,34 pair ?

Think deeply before replying pls

sarvesh sharma said...

@ raghu, i am coming straight to you becoz there was nothing constructive the way you started this conversation..shriram has humbled you now..now you tell shriram to go his way and you will go yours..if that is the answer then it should have stopped you from poking nose into anything that goes into this blog..i never pointed out at you first..you started it ,,better you stop it..if you find something good here, learn..if not move on...where the pressure to comment here lies? second when anyone shall feel the need for the outside world, they can come to you and others for their needs.. now i sincerely do not understand your logic of disturbing the proceedings here... i hope you shall end this conversation here and focus on trades, knowledge sharing, asking questions and making money rather than complaining and making jokes.. the motivation for innovation is being served by the greatest here-Ilango sir, and nobody needs to bother about this family. he is taking good care as a guardian/father..

most of us had a number game,with their own logical reasons behind and next time everyone shall have the memory and more experience to participate in a better way and produce better results for one self..this is actually a mind sharping thing for me personally in last 2-3 months..

shriram said...

Congratulations Veerasamy and Stockathon !

@ Sarvesh : there was no intention to humble anyone... I wanted to know if there is DATA / Maths to back his claims, obviously thats not the case.

Lets leave it @ that, have fun all , bye :-)

raghu said...

@ Sriram : I know what ewo is. I assume with 2nd ques u wanna know how to figure out end of a corrective coz in impulses we have the divergence between 3rd and 5th if 3rd is extended and if 5th is extended or in case of corrective look out for the divergences in the fractals of 5th or c in case of corrective. Ewo is an indicator u use with elliott wave.
What is Elliott wave based on ? Human Psychology. That is you answer.
I had done my thinking long before adopting it.

shriram said...

@ Raghu:

5EMA-34EMA .. how does this help estimate end of waves MATHEMATICALLY... pl explain with equations that shed light.

Forget EWO ... it is a colloquial name to Fast-Slow EMA difference .. Talk from a Science / Signal processing perspective pls

raghu said...

@ sarvesh..i and sriram just disagreed to agree so until time proves what is right there is no point arguing. Humbled me..lol.. Sriram if you dont wana look at data and maths its your wish, baki its right there.

raghu said...

@ Sriram..put those macd settings and look at charts of any big scrip and see the end of any wave covering 100-120 candles timeframe and you would see yourselves what i am saying. have a look and then we will talk on any specific instance you wud want to.

shriram said...

@ Raghu:

Am more interested if one can model the obsv into an Equation that can be explained & repeated across time frames with Hi-probability of Price Data / History

5EMA-34EMA = {Today-2days old Close Price} - {Today-16days old Close Price} , as lag of an

EMA (n) = {n-1}/2 BARS

How does this Difference of close price {T-2} - {T-16} , help identify end of waves , is the question?

raghu said...

@ Sriram..read it and apply on every fives you see on any chart..http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott_oscillator.htm

shriram said...

@ Raghu:

have read this, but this obsv is not always co-related to end of wave . If you can explain mathematically, we might stumble upon a Hi-prob repeatable system.

Keep an open mind, g-day

raghu said...

Why does illango ji use different emas to figure out the trend.TA is simply following a system that has a fair record in history of market. 5 and 34 were the most popular emas used when ewo was adopted. you can use any values and see for urself which works well for you.

shriram said...

@ Raghu:

yes. We always question any EMA use. Even 5 Hi-Lo has been questioned & researched. (as its been statisitcally obsved that when price closes < its T-2 days Highest price (ruffly 5DhiEMA), its the signal of Start of a Reversal or a Corrective)

Can u now, explain why 5-34 ?

raghu said...

I am sure it is. Use basic ew knowledge with ewo and it will help you figure out the end of any wave much before you can figure out with ew only. Try it if u want but if u want be academic about market then even ew can be doubted. Just look for the ewo div when you do your basic charting research in the night and you would see. I came to this blog to specifically tell this to you. Bye

shriram said...

@ Raghu:

ur again talking Obsvs. If you can tell me the statistics on how many % time, it catches reversals, that would instill gr8er weight to allow modelling into an Hi-porbAlgo / repeatable system.

This talk is no academic. Need to apply maths & data to price to have hi-prob wins, not general obsv alone

raghu said...

@ sriram..we trade using human psychology. 5 and 34 are very popular emas and their crossover is a popular marker for people. Just focus on the efficacy of the system and learn if its beneficial, tweak it with you experience and then innovate something new in addition to master.

raghu said...

More than 75 % and with sound ew more than 80% in case of bigger time frame reversals.

shriram said...

@ Raghu:

Pl post some chart links with examples, i will try to explore this tonight in the interim

raghu said...

See i cant prove it to you and even if i show my trades, it still wont prove for you coz i m pretty used to it. Just add it to your research and see the results for yourself. I jus wanted you to have a look. Use the right time frame for the wave and you would surely see the results.

raghu said...

@ Shriram..open any chart, any scrip, any wave..use the right time frame 100-120 candles from begining of the wave you wana test it on. I am sure you will notice the divergence before any reversal. jus add it to you analysis and over time you would realize its potential.

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