Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ...
62 comments:
SAM said...
Ilango Sir... Completly Out of Shorts...
Can you pls Guide where can reentry taken??
May 4, 2012 1:58 PM
@ SAM,
U forgot what ilango sir says? Trade with minimum 3 lots, part book and hold till JNSAR not trigger again. But u peoples use your brain.
@ SAM,
"iiird" wave of 3rd wave is generally the fastest one. It starts deceptively & then gathers momentum.
13 points bounce was the maximum bounce it had.
Its really tough to call its bottom. It could be anything depending on the nature of the fall - corrective or reversal to downtrend.
You could sell after every small pauses..But now the time is running out.
Thanks Sir... for detailed reply...
illango ji,
purely statistically speaking:
probability of day bottom being formed in this zone 5050-5080 is very high...
Can say with 67% (1std dev) confidence that we have entered price zone from where Reversal on Day
TA is Nigh
Pls explore if this info can be coupled wid ur obsvs & enlighten us on wot u see
urs
@shriram
good use of statistics..really a good study...keep going...
can we see, for prev day low ema than developing ema,bcoz developing ema will shift lower till low of the sets in...
Dear shriram,
Thanks,was thinking on the same line.considering current Nifty resistance @ 5096,it should go up to 5068-70 or considering current low for the day it should try 5105-5110..still both options are open "for the day" only...Let us see...
hi anil,
tks, quite possible to use prev 5DLEMA also.. but then the mean of the Highest FreQ "Deltas" will ddifferent, instead of the 70 pts that i observe for Developin LEMA, it wud b a little more, may be 100-120 pts
U will have to calcuate... I use Developing EMA becoz its the MOST RECENT INFo available @ any pt in time :-)
cheers
@Sriram: You post messages like you send an sms :)
I find it tough to read it.
@shriram
thanks got it...will surely look at it...
@ shriram,
At best some bounce could be possible due to Hour TA being oversold but they don't display +ve div. Hence, with the kind of higher T/F TA being "Down", such bounce plays aren't risk worthy.
Besides Day lead indicator just turns down midway today and while it goes to 20 & below, more downsides are possible unless market makes some "unimaginable moves".
So far market hasn't shown any reversal patterns.
namaskar mynac,
wud b lovely if u can apply the bell curve to ur OI analysis also..
the results can b breathtaking , for all we know !
@ prabhat --> Ops hazard.. :-D
kindly discount my idiosyncracies & bear wid my foibles :-)
The recent bounce was again 13 points from 5083 to 5096.
Is it some algo trading programme...
A bounce above 13 points is "out of ordinary" for the day.
There are two events election in europe this weekend and
GAAR in parliament on Monday. The risk reward ratio
is veering more towards shorts rather than longs for Monday.
Illango ji,
Tks for ur guidance sir. I will post some charts on the "Delta" Curve stats once i get time this weekend , may b u can see something in them ??
Automation is the way ahead as we humans try to reduce effort, seems even Nifty wont b able escape the inanimate computer program for too many more days :-)
5087 gap is filled.
my minimum tgt of 4870-75 is just 200 points away.
Master what is the next support below 5077?
Thanks.
Ilango Sir,
I have shorts @5280NF. Can I part book here Sir? Please advice me Sir.
@ Shriram,
For me ... no automation and I remain "old fashioned" and the results are satisfying.
You belong to the "New generation" and you grew up on technology and you must pursue your chosen path. And I have seen you "quite satisfied" with that.
Chosen path may differ but approach remains same - objective.
May 2000 mrkt 6.5% downmay 2002 mrkt 7.5% down
May 2004 mrkt 15.9% down
May 2006 mrkt 14% down
May 2008 mrkt 6.5 % down
May 2010 mrkt 3.5% down
Only for Info.
@ Prabhakar,
"Part booking" has to be individual's choice.
A 50 point bounce would make us feel regretful of not having booked earlier and sometimes a continued 100 point fall too will have the same feeling.
Now that 5077 too is broken, Pivot table has "5063"(for the day) as the next target & then 5036.
sir
just ur words & this blog, is bliss :-))))))
From 4531 to 5630 golden ratio is 4951
Thank you very much Sir for your Advice
aaah.. atlast we break the 13 pt jinx :-P
@master
though you told banknifty covered after market.
but if possible just guide. i part book which was shorted on jnsar hit at 10245. what will be likely tgt? please. thanks. banknifty is also NIFTY!!!!!
@shriram,
:)
means now "buyers" do not want any new low for next Hr.
It probably is part short covering by bears. No
excitement seen.
first time 25 point bounce
@ Master
Bounced 24.60 points from Day's low.
5070.60 to 5094.80
@ anmpatel,
BN targets: 9450-9500 (Mth Low ema & 50% retrace of the rise)
yup mynac,
pan ha fakta Hr bounce ahe na.
As per Developin Day TA , 5-10 Bear x-over firmly in place..
@master
a BIG BIG thank you for timely guidance. i develop patience for last lot.
@ SBiyani
5063 and 5036 are weekly and monthly supports in the pivot table posted at EOD.
3.00PM TT & Chart Updated.
@SBSB: "The risk reward ratio
is veering more towards shorts rather than longs for Monday."
I am just an ant here. You guys out here are the real experts. But my exp says that mkts may not be so predictable. You never know, decision might come out in favor of FII for gaar. Reason: India is trying very hard to strengthen the rupee which be worsened if FII start pulling out if GAAR is not resolved. I am not sure, but Gov may take a stand to support FII inflows.
@shriram,
Nkkich...
only Hr.bounce but buyers would try very much hard enough to give a close above 5096 & the sellers vice versa...Considering current low it has it's temp.importance from trading point of view... the current trend...down ...no doubt about the same...
A gap up on monday ?????
Prabhat u are absolutely correct. But the good thing
whatever happens will happen during market hours so
if ur stoploss or reverse strategy is fed in the system
u are always on top.
5031 current month low ema [developing].
@iLango Sir,
In Mr. Prechter's mentions that as a guideline,
corrections usually find its lowest point in the area of the
4th wave of the preceding impulse wave of the same degree.
I haven't been able to understand this with respect to the current
position of Nifty. Could you please elaborate...
Thank you
hazarding a try wid EW... even tho i try mightily to resist the itch!
3rd Actionary of the downward 5fifer may be over & 4th sub frac up may be in play as :-
w3: 5216 5070.5 -145.5
w4: 5070.5 5126.081 55.581 -38%
lets c
GKM gap up on Monday is unlikely. Only a favorable
decision on GAAR can gap market up but that will happen
during market hours.
Seems an exteded W5 have ended from the top
a fast retracement upto 5200 can be accepted.
my view !
Chart: http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/7267/niftymay4.png
@ Kumar technicals
Sir carry shorts ??
gap dn on monday ,colsing below 5day low ema
Dear gkm223,
From Nf O.I. addition ,which is huge..i.e. almost 25 lac.. it looks that some serious positional selling has been done today,so any bounce or any gap up,if there shall be any,then it will be utilized for sell only..so at present it looks the chances are not there ...
Camarilla Intraday Update/Follow Up:
From L4@5168 down move upto 97+ Points.
Anyone Trade from L4 could be booked
50 to 80 pts!
From 02/05/2012 Camarilla Performance.
33+20+80=133 Points.
Have a Nice weekend Friends.
See you on Monday.
heavy shting done in 5100ce
Most important when parliament is in session no FM
would dare make any off the cuff announcements outside
parliament. So we have time to digest GAAR outcome
on Monday.
Dear Manish!
I am not shorts at all then how i can carry, i was shorts in some stocks which i closed today:)
Closing avg is coming near 5088:)
@ Puravi,
Go back to our earlier posts when Nifty made a high of 5630. And check the labeling to find out the 4th/ ivth wave in them.
If the current fall is a correction, it "normally"(not a rule but a guidance)finds its end around the " 4th wave of one cycle lesser(sub-wave 4th of 4531 to 5630)
Typically corrections to bull markets find support at the previous 4th wave of a lesser degree if the fifth wave was strong. - Tony Caldaro(Objective EW author)
@Experts: I tried to follow marketcalls.in for configuration of amibroker. I could install it, but did not know how to get the backfill for every day. Can anyone teach me how to get amibroker setup done? This will be of great help.
Prabhat there is no result as such. The budget
discussion from Monday will take up GAAR and if there
is an announcement the FM will make it in Parliament.
So lets see on Monday or Tuesday.
@SBSB: What I meant by result is the announcement itself. I thought the discussion will start in the parliament & some consensus might be reached which may be during or after mkt hours.
Prabhat
SAM is an expert. Details r on his blog
Heavy buying i.e. as well as writing in 5000 PE.. which is 17 lac today @3.30 PM...and Nifty closed @ 5087....
It shall be tug of war on Monday..
Lets wait for the ticker to tell us on Monday what to
do. For now enjoy the weekend. :):)
Ilango Sir,
It may be like the Horro film "Friday the 13th ".
Just for joke, don't mistake me.
EE done
EE done
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