Weekly Analysis

"Golfdude" asked about "Fast fall & Fast rise Moving average (MA)" set ups:
A short term moving average (5 sma) cuts below a medium term average(20sma) to confirm a trend reversal and subsequently the 5-sma tries to move up during a corrective rally and fails to reach the 20-sma and turns down again, thus setting up a failed rally and the start of a sharp down move. There were two such "fast fall MA" set ups during the fall from 5400 to 4786 and the same was pointed out.
Similarly, once the down trend is over and the new uptrend begins with the 5-sma moving above 20-sma and during a corrective move down, the 5-sma turns down and goes closer to the 20-sma and turns up again without breaching the 20-sma, thus setting up a "Fast rise MA" set up.
"Mynac" enquired about the H&S formation in the daily chart:
I do not see a valid H&S pattern. Even if there is one, Nifty may go up to 5556(4786+770= for the "other shoulder" (as the first shoulder moved up by 770 points: 4539 to 5309) before a fall.
"SBhandarkar" asked about EW labelling - Why "ABC", why not "12345"..?:
I try to label them taking into account many large cap stocks and so far it appears to be "ABC" with the "B" wave still on. For eg: RIL is stuck in "b" of "B" and yet to start its "c" of "B".
Hdfc, L&T have commenced their "c" of "B" last week.
I label the most obvious one but follow it mostly for its direction only which is up presently.
The most important doubt comes about the impending larger "C". I feel the "C" wave may correct after the "B" going higher from here and it could be a sideways with a downward bias but not the impulsive kind meaning it may not go much below 4000. My best guess would be "B" towards 6000+ and then a "C" towards 4000-4500. I generally do not hazard such guess works when it comes to corrective pattern as no one knows for sure whether it is going to be a "flat" or "zigzag" or a "triangle". So within this larger corrective, each phase will look quite bullish as well as quite bearish. Why not trade/ invest each phase as each would offer 100 to 200% moves.
In the weekly chart below, one can see two "Fast rise MA" set ups and the second one has started two weeks ago. It holds as long as 5100 holds.
FII have started to buy again after a sell off in May. It has started big from 11th June, a fact worth keeping in mind.

For the coming week: 5225 to 5175 seem to be an ideal place to initiate longs and 5335-5350 seem to be resistances, moving past which more impulsive moves will be seen.Nifty is nearing the channel top in the day chart with some "OB" readings and it may correct the same with time with shallow price dips. 10-sma, fast rising would be a buy the dip point whenever any sharp dips materialises.Keep it handy.
OI experts can throw up the possible ranges for the remaining 4 days of the series and I will update more as the week unfolds.
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I received a file from "Sundar" with instructions to use it during market time.
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