Nifty moved right into the middle of that "5110-5165" and poised to go towards "4935" again. A close below that or a fall below 4885 may eliminate the "larger pull back" and Nifty will make new lows..Grey:(Bullish with immediate short term bearish) - This one has completed "a" of the "2/ B" and has started the 'b" from the high of "5147" , can stretch upto 4960, 4935, 4885. If it holds any of the three levels, it could start a bullish "C" wave up targeting 5200 - 5260.
Red: (More Bearish in the short term) - After the "X" wave at "5213", "a" wave fell to 4786 and a "b" wave completed @ 5147 on Friday and the "C" wave may unfold in either "abc" or "12345" fashion. Here too "4885-4935" may act as an inflection point whether "Grey" or "Red" is playing out.
Being down with fever, I am not able to answer my mail this week end but for those who found it difficult to trade the recent times, I wish to remind you just a simple fact: "Have you done your home work before trading and are you confident enough to act on it and have you stuck to this plan of yours..?".
For the easiest of trading strategies, I reemphasize here to "Trade only the divergences" and you will hit more than 80% success rate with a relaxed approach. And there are many divergences to choose from.
"Do what you should do, when you should do it, whether you feel like it or not."
43 comments:
Dear Ilango
"For the easiest of trading strategies, I reemphasize here to "Trade only the divergences" and you will hit more than 80% success rate with a relaxed approach. And there are many divergences to choose from."
Very well said...I have always found Divergences to be much better trades than breakouts or pullbacks....yes, and one can trade both the regular and hidden divergences....with divergences ironically we still need a convergence of few things and you are in trade!!!
You don't get em often but when you get them "THE PATIENT ARE REWARDED" !!!!
Cheers!!!
@ilango sir,
Trading divergences in longer time frames ( hour or 30 min ) is better. A better option would be to follow the trend along with divergences. I also read today abt finding trends using RSIs alone.
http://scientifictrader.com/stock_trend.htm
-- gd
@gd,
See, again the example they've posted is for a very long time-frame and MACD, SAR or any other method would have worked as well. But trying to trade that on a limited budget would be very difficult.
@Trying2Trade, Ilango,
Sadly divergences are rare and its hard to pick the proper entry point.
@ilango sir,
In tech table excel sheet, is there a column for 9 period RSI ? I see a sheet for 9-D RSI but it is a chart. I am wondering if i can use that data to do some RSI trending. Or is RSI values available somewhere online ?
Thanks
gd
Sir,
Looks like the old "Tiger is coming" story. Euroeco influenced corrections/hammering is successfully exploited by the US traders to gain from both sides. Being a copy cat Market which does not the "Self Discipline" and "Self Belief" ours is fond of dancing to the global tunes. I had a message from my friend mok, who suggested "Don't Panic". How true !!! What if the gap down happens to be the bottom of this correction and we end up squaring Longs and catching RV's "Last bogey"?
Let's stick to the TA friends.
Good Night.
HELLO ILANGO,
SURPRISINGLY NOTED THAT NOBODY CARES ABOUT YOUR HEALTH!!!!!!
OR
AM I WRONG??????
"Being down with fever, I am not able to answer my mail this week end but for those who found it difficult to trade the recent times, I wish to remind you just a simple fact:......."
ANYWAY, WISH YOU A VERY VERY SPEEDY RECOVERY...
Hi San the Chart Buster - Congratulations on the well deserved recognition. I take this opportunity to re-lodge my earlier request. Please devote a section/links of various Chart Patterns,which in turn will be a "label"for each of the charts you post. It will go a long way in educating people like me. First to understand the basic and refer to your "live case study".
Sir/Jay
I am searching for these lines. Since was travelling y'day,was not very attentive.
Ilango - if you are not well, get well soon.(at least by 9am tommorrow).
Jay - hope you are not throwing a "doosra".
Good Night.
Sir thanks for being so dedicated....Down with fever still you take out the time to present your weekend analysis...that shows your SD.
Our love & prayers are with you. Wishing you a speedy recovery. Take care & get well soon...!!
Good Night :)
I've been very fascinated by the potential of the 5-EMA of late and I did a weekend study on Ilango's Data.H sheet for the last 3 months (Mar 25 - Jun 5). Here are the results I wanted to share (for a single Nifty contract):
1.The most successful would be to trade exactly on the 5-Ema - buy when it turns up and sell when it turns down (at that price). Profit: 91,500 commissions: 19,250.
(Major drawback is getting your entry and exit price)
2. If you trade with the 'close' being above or below the 5-Ema (buy and sell when the close price turns around), Profit: 35,000, comm: 19500
(This overcomes the previous drawback, but because it fluctuates more wildly, the losses are greater.)
3. If you go Long (Nifty above 5 high av ema) and Short below 5 Low-ema: Profit: 950, comm:1250
(The advantage is limiting comm costs and no of trades, but at the cost of profits).
Fascinating?:)
RG,
Please go through Ilango's posting on "Weekend Analysis" dated 06.06.2010.
A portion of it is as under::
"Being down with fever, I am not able to answer my mail this week end but for those who found it difficult to trade the recent times, I wish to remind you just a simple fact: "Have you done your home work before trading and are you confident enough to act on it and have you stuck to this plan of yours..?".
For the easiest of trading strategies, I reemphasize here to "Trade only the divergences" and you will hit more than 80% success rate with a relaxed approach. And there are many divergences to choose from.
"Do what you should do, when you should do it, whether you feel like it or not."
In any case, May I ask you something? Don't be angry. You all are SELFISH otherwise, you will not say like "Ilango - if you are not well, get well soon.(at least by 9am tommorrow)"
p.s.- I wanted to try more combos, but maybe next weekend: like 9-RSI and 'close', 2-RSI, waiting for a 3 hr confirmation, etc.
[Also, that 'profit' is before comm is cut. I've av. comm to about 250 for a buy-sell.]
@RG,
BTW was there anything from my side as "Pehla" as you are saying "Doosra"....
ok Jay, I'm down with a bad cold too. But selfishly didn't mention it.;p
Ilango, get well soon and take your time.:)
Good evening Ilango sir,
Take care of your health. Praying for your health and well being always.
Off the market:
Did anyboy watch the vedio"Semmozhi Manadu Theme song" ?? It is just awesome
The link is "http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqRR186LwMA"
hello sir get well soon...dont stress much...take plenty of liquids...
Dear Ilango,
"Being down with fever,......
You are requested to take rest first.Get well soon first.
Dear Jay,You were correct.Sorry.Apologize for the same.
ILango, Get well soon. Manoj
ilango sir,
get well soon ...
:)
Hi Ilango Sir,
Please take care of yourself and get well soon.
Dear Ilango,
Do get well soon.
Take care of your health and leave this blog for few days.
Keep away from markets for few days.
Come back with renewed energy only when both body and soul permits.
I am sure you have here trained many who will take up the responsibility of guiding the unlearnt and new in the interim.
God Speed.
SIR,
ON FRIDAY 5200CE SAW UNWINDING OF 5.6 LAKH SHARES AND ADDITION OF 6.8LAKHS AND 2.5LAKHS IN 5100PE AND 5200PE RES.DOES IT INDICATE BULLISHNESS IN COMING DAYS OR TRAP FOR LONGS???
SIR,
1.Kirit Parikh expects fuel price deregulation in June 7 meet
2.25% public holding must for all listed cos: Govt
Will these two news have any impact on INDIAN markets Oon monday??
i guess if 5028-5018 ns gives supports then may see another upmove to 5213 soon
ILANGO SIR GET WELL SOON
Get well Soon , illango Sir
Dear Ilango sir
I am a silent reader following you and benefited with a few conservative Trades
I am missing several conservative trade calls because it is given in comment section and
not in POSTS like Intraday updates I / II / III as i am busy with my regular work.
I Track "Just Nifty" on my mobile phone
I humbly request you to post conservative positional trade calls in POSTS section along
with Updated tech table so that some who cannot day trade can be benefited
on 01.04.2010 Nifty sold @5040
on 02.04.2010 Nifty bought @4985 and is continueing....
If conservative sell / buy is indicated in intra day update more benificial for those who
cannot pay highest attention and focus on financial markets
Sorry for demanding more but Yeh dil mange more
sir sincerely wishing you Get well soon
ssham
Get well soon. Regards.
dear ilango sir ,
get well soon and all the best wishes for ur speedy recovery.
warm regards
dear yoda
plz specify that u backtested 5hr ema or 5 d ema,
though im following 5d ema successfully just want to know that whether 5hr ema also works
thanx in advance.
but i never backtested, realtime results are good.
Euro Futures killing the future of long traders.An opening below 5000 ? I will still sell.
bhushan steel is a good short.
today euro opened at gap down......and still tanking.nifty may open with a gap down at 5087 or even at 5040
@Yoda,
Good stuff. Keep it up.
What did you mean by "The most successful would be to trade exactly on the 5-Ema " ? Current price VS 5-EMA ? Also the numbers you refer to are points ? Note that commissions will always be the same but entry/exit will be off by 5-10 pts usually. So given that ur numbers might be different.
-- gd
try some figure below 5000.
man. if this fall keeps happening all the t.a in the world will go for a tosss. I will only buy puts.no more futures , too risky.
Atilla is scaring the holiness out of me. http://www.xtrenders.com/
I hope Freezer days dont come.
hmmm ,Hang Seng is not falling that much.
Shanghai and KL are around 1% down. The rest are 2.5% and above. Take your best bet - we will be 1% which is around 5085. Worst is 4% ( nikkie ) which gives us 4935. Somewhere between 4935-5085...
-- gd
fyi...shanghai is getting worse. 1 to 1.4% now.
gd
@Ilango,
Hope your health is becoming better. "trade Divergences" .....Wow, Ilango ..that's one of my key strategy. You are right..It's almost always certain..
Regards,
Ankur...
Shanghai at 2.1% also. Now Asia is at 3% average. KL is alone at 1%.
-- gd
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