If a corrective 'abc" is done, the earlier downtrend may resume. After the break out from the downward sloping channel, today's move has been quite slow, not impulsive.
A negative divergence over the week end should never have been ignored. My critic as well as many readers pointed out the same. Now the channel support comes around 5030-5040.
20 comments:
mmm... many viewers have commented on the latest developments very valid various notes on the previous post. very thought provoking points,
Ilango sir & Friends
What are supports to be look for monday to indicate end of this pullback . 4961 is near swing support above that which support to be watched thanx.
Reposting:
@rochak,
1. It is a agreed practice that all important news announcement has to be made only after market hours so as not to disturb the price in the market. The weekend allows time for the public to think it over. There is no design as you see.
2. If your statement
//i am sure these big pockets operators wud hav shorted the markets today afternoon // is true, then the market wld'not have witnessed this closing.
3. Reg your other fear about absorption of new paper issuance...be assured, this is miniscule when compared with investing surplus of our Financial Institutions..
@all option analysts,.
Ur views on eod position..
Dear mok,
Good Eve.I also read the previous comments.
As the Nifty movement is and was abnormal from last few days.First going below 200 DMA and then coming up from there in a hurry.Due to this kind of abnormal movement later or sooner the down side is expected and there is nothing new in it,but when? still the answer is unanswerable.So every time there were advices to "trade light".
At present Bulls have still hopes.The Nifty Fut.200 DMA is 5015 for Monday. Considering today's close,a downward movement and the close if there shall be any below 2% on Monday will be only threat for Bulls.
Let us see on Monday.Good Night.
What I feel the market reaction for next week...a fall towards 5000-4980 level, then small rally towards 5050-5060 zone & then the real crash....will complete the hns pattern too....still too early but lets c.
As per ichimoku chart too (upper channel resistance near 5150), a close below 5050-5060 will be bearish.
Go short only below 4950 or close to 5050 (as per ichimoku with 5080 eod as SL).
Personally bought 4 lots of 5200 put near 5040 but because of weekend fear & nifty closing above Day High ema squared off 2 lots just before closing.
Lets see how US markets close tonite & what's more in store this weekend apart from NFP & Hungary & ofcourse govt's so called norms.
@rochak
Totally agree with your views regarding all the major announcements on Friday (after market hours) or over the weekend.
@sriganeshh
On options front market was bullish. PCR nearly 1.54. However market is still options heavy.
There is decent put buildup at 5000PE (74 lacs), 4900PE (68 lacs)& 4800PE (67 lacs). Today 5100 PE added 6.9 lacs & 5000PE added 6.5 lacs in OI. There was some unwinding in 4800PE & 4700PE. On the call side 5200CE & 5100CE also saw some unwinding.
As per options data, 4950-5000 hold the key. Put writers will try their best to hold markets above 5000 level. If that breaks bears may take the charge.
If it's of any comfort - Market will fall on Monday
Recover slowly until 25th June
Whatever happened, happened too quickly - I did not expect to
see a 5170 during the 1st week of the month! There will be
heavy volatility until the 25th
My dates usually do not fail me.
If this move has to be measured till the 26th - We may retest 4950
and bounce back from there.
These supports / resistances will have no meaning this month
A bounce from 5030-40 will happen - Ill provide an update on Monday
as I get to sleep over the weekend!
So monday is the day I actively trade! Dont worry
we aint going down in a hurry!
thanks shriganesh, thanks mok
for clarifying views
thanks fellow board members for reacting
Hi Friends......
DOW successfully completed triple century. Obviously our markets will react on monday for sure <4950....??
Hi Mynac,
thanks for clarification on OI front and your views, like sir says crisp as always,
Take care mynac, goodnight.
Hi Sri,
your explanation on absorption of govt norms to normality , & the avoidance of intraday panic by announcements after mkt hours is an eye-opener,
your asking for OI clarification is also well supplemented by friends like manni, thanks
Hi manni,
good explanation to the OI and the final minute transactions, keep posting your views for the benefit of all.
Hi rochak,
thanks for opening up an interesting discussion.
-3% and 1 more hour to go.
goodnight all
BIG FALL has begun DOW down by over 300 points, Europeans down by 3-4%.
Real Gap down opening on Monday..
Great to see you GB....!!
The market from option data seem to be screaming the impending down side.
Some times i take prices of equidistant options as a barometer!
to illustrate at sopt 5133, 5200 CE june was at 55 with an IV of about 15%
5100 pe was a whopping 91 with and IV of about 30%.
As futures were in backwardation some lower IV for CE could be expected.
the range of markets was about 60 points and 5100 PE swung by about 40 points where as the swing in 5200 ce for same 60 points was less than 20 points.
With spot at 5130 levels the Delta of 5100 pe would be approx 0.4 where as that of 5200 approx 0.45, so one would theoretically expect a spread range higher for 5200 ce but that was not the case!
i would request option enthusiasts and experts to kindly comment.
regards
Ranga
@Ranga,
you are absolutely on point.
@Manni
In option, there is a thing called Premium and do they suggest something? Open Interest is just like volume.
For June, after 5100 & 5000 PE, 4600 PE added highest OI...the same way in 5300 & 5400 CE added high OI...
what does it indicate?
@gb--I do agree that the gann dates are working
wonderfully .. Give credit when credit is due
Dear mok,
The credit goes to Dear Manni for OI clarification.
I just want to say that "Market Does Not Like The Uncertainty So It will Find It's Own Way"
Let us see.
Thanks.
dear ilango sir i am holding 20 lot of nifty 5100 put at prise of 103,at what nifty level should i square up on monday?
jayrang,
I have 2 lots too. Question is, if it goes back into the downtrend channel, couldnt the bottom of the channel be a potential reversal point ?
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