100 to 125 points from the highs, this 4th wave may find its bottom for the next upmove.
Congratulations "Rochak Parekh" on your "Blog Journey".
Our Best wishes to you.
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor...
162 comments:
Dear Ilango Sir & Blogmates
MP Values Futures: VAH - 5348, POC - 5334, VAL - 5327
Thanks & Regards
Sanjay Kr Jaiswal
Hi..Sanjay,
That was a long time. Hope you are doing fine.
Thank you for the MP input. "Anil" would be happy to see it and so do many, I hope.
Weak below "5327"(VAL).
Best regards.
ilango
US markets are down more than 1 per cent. We'd see the correlation, if any, today.
Good morning everyone
Nifty daily chart analysis
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/nifty-daily-chart-analysis_23.html
Thank you
Good Morning all!
Sensex level 17655 to be watched out for.
Good morning all!
Good Morning sir & friends !!
Dear Ilango,
As per EW
"In standard, trending impulsions, the time of wave-2 must equal or exceed that of wave-1. In addition, wave-4 must also equal or exceed the time of wave-3"
So how to understand this ongoing 4 th wave as the time taken by 3RD is 9 days.
Best
manoj
Good Morning Elango sir and friends
Have a nice profitable trading today..
Good Morning Sir and Friends.
Due to some exigency/pre-occupation cudn't send the N50 TA update - my regrets.
Looks like RG bombed out the Rangers with one Call !!!
Could be one of the LOWEST blogged days today.
===
YES Bank is smelling good. Evaluate carefully. It has 2200 shares/Lot in F&O. If we can enter around 268-270 can see Rs 10 per share soon. Please evaluate and enter - THIS IS NOT A CALL.
Disclaimer : I am in it from lower levels.
@sir, sanjay,
Thnaks for MP levels...
dat is really an honour I LANGO sir, to have u commented on my blog.
dear friends, musti, san, anuj, RM, gautam, shiva, mynac, thanks to all of u too. ur encouragement would really make me to commit myself sincerely towards my blog readers' advantage.
i wud inform here at I lango sir's blog as soon as i update my blog, so that ur valuable comments set me towards improving and grooming me as a trader.
thanks
regards
stock2gains.blogspot.com
TRADE UPDATE : since dhanlaxmi bank has already made a high of more than our band 176-178, trade initiation remains canceled, we wud look towards a better opportunity friday or next week>166-165.
UTV SOFT: trade initiated, volumes not encouraging, if initiated, it has wonderfully giving us an opportunity to place a immediate SL 393.9, if intraday ( i personally avoid intraday positions ), positional SL remains same 389.90.
Y'day's price movement suggested the following having UP trend.
Scrip Name HIGH-Rs OB
ACC 891.78
AXISBANK 1270.32
BHEL 2487.54
CIPLA 344.85
DLF 298.02 *
HINDALCO 157.63
HLL 262.33 *
ICICIBANK 918.31
ITC 302.86
L&T 1868.03 **
M&M 651.76
MARUTIUD 1401.24
ONGC 1230.83
RANBAXY 455.53 *
REL 1217.91
RELCAP 787.13
RPOWER 176.07
SAIL 205.58
SUNPHARM 1777.14 **
TATAPOW 1335.65 *
TISCO 515.63 *-
UNITECH 75.28
Bharti alone suggested "Down" trend for 257 target. - Equities.
Rajgopal sir ur right about yes bank its a buy.
JS : Thanks. Is the call from Brokers? It has a short term target of 320-340. And it can be observed that any counter in which bulk liquidation happens goes down one the day and recovers well soon after. Y'day's exit by Rebo Bank is picked up by biggies and insurance.
===
"Khetan Parekh" news published by a friend y'day is correct. Update is that he is actively accumulating ONGC+oil companies - source E.T.
Sold nifty future @ 5305 SL 5320 Target 5240
Bought 4 lots of nifty 5300 put @ 25 SL 10 Target 70
It is unlikely to move past 5315 as it has broken
a 9 day long rising hourly channel
we may witness a selloff in the afternoon.
in the last series, we had an accumulation of shorts,
resulting in sharp bounce.
it is the other way round this time as longs have been
accumulated and people would like to book profits
before the next series, as the uncertain atmosphere persists
even the monsoon has weakened
Short is the only conceivable option from these high
levels for today and tomorrow
Good Morning,
20 lac O.I. addition in Jun NF bet.just 9 Points i.e. 5305 and 5314.Huge Buildup.Still holding 5300 up to 10.30AM. Let us wait to see the action in the latter trades.
Good morning Mynac
Thanks for all those comments i was not able to reply to you. And i saw that error in my post thanx for pointing it out.
OT...
rosky stock recommendation...EXCELINFO...
-- gd
prashant sl for nifty shrt is 5320 he rakhe
Dear San,
You have also silent viewers and followers abroad too,which, you too know, so I requested.Thanks.
Read as "risky" not "rosky" in prev post.
-- gd
@All,
A small positive divergence is seen in the hourly chart.This low of 5288 could be held for the time being.
Hi all,
Looks like the 26-ema is holding Nifty aloft.
Hi gd,
should we buy Excel info or?
Pls clarify!
Thanks.
@ soha
you are right regarding sl for short
it should be 5320 as that is the channel top
noted and revised
@Sanjay
I am holding nifty at 5321 bought yesterday.
Shall I hold it today tgt please
@pradhan,
yes. Buy.
-- gd
@RG Please check TISCO and tell whether can i hold the 480 CA option for TGT of 500 510 or is it safe to book loss
16 Points premium in July series despite dividends being available in the
nifty (accounting for nearly 10 points of discount for July). Something is amiss here.
Something cooking.
buying of straddle in nifty 5300ce and 5300pe near 25-28 Rs each can be rewarding...may see tgt of 80rs in it,total cost Rs50-55..5250 and 5350 will be brakeven points in just one option.plz comment
Reliance is pulling down Nifty.
@ stock4sure
Instead of the above straddle
buy 5400 put @ 96
when market goes down buy 5300 call around 15 and exit
5400 put around 120.
gain: 120-96=24-15=9 points
and you have a call for free. keep it open for reverses
if it doesn't reverse cover it around 9
OR
just buy 5400put at 96 and 5300 call @ 28
total cost 124 profit below 5276
maximum loss if expires above 5300: 24 points
It's broken below the 26 ema now. I think it is headed lower. (The min I say that, Nifty usually reverses.:)
Fire - RIL only Rs6 down. Look at the other heavy weights also SBI and L&T. Huge declines.
===
Nifty : Sorry took time. Checked both equity and F&O. TISCO is in no trade zone,not givng any trade signal. It has a VIX range of 482 - 506 today. But one could see a support at the opening price (around) and stock trying to bounce there. I am not confident of 500-510 today.
Prashant,
There are remote chances to earn in your & Stock4sure's straddle, better way to trade with trend with certain calculation & concerned SL in options or other trades as per my opinion
Rajagopal,
Kindly share me link/site - how to get VIX data for individual script/Index.
Thanks,
Gopkrish
Hello friends, please go through my latest post " why to put a stop loss " and leave a comment, specially newbies traders should find it mandatory to read the post.
thanks
regards
stock2gains.blogspot.com
Gd,
pls allow me to throw some light on EXCEL INFO
It's bullish only traded above 44,if it's close above 44 for couple of days with good volume then it might be crossed 48 which is 100dma & there after 51 will be next hurdle
so stay long only above 44 with SL 41.15 or 40.15
Thanks.
RG,
you are perfectly right.Anyway, a correction was due after the big runup LT had after breaking the multi-month resistance of 1700-1730 zone.
Gop - NSE.com->Derivatives->Daily Volatility. Simple.
euro futures climb back to days high..
euro futures climb back to days high..
FIRE - wish so-your rule is applicable almost to all. But today L&T - bad news on loss of 20k C contract. SBI is being pummeled on expected "rate revision" - I expect it to FLARE post announcement (2424+?). It attracts attention of Insurance Big brother on declines. Smart ones with risk appetite can pick it up at every Rs25 decline from here. (PLEASE DON'T FOLLOW ME.EVALUATE THE OPTION).
Question of "Likes""Dislikes" must be part of EW ? RIL keeps announcing how to spend money. Dislike will come. RELCOM may have another up-swing - prospective suitor for another stake sale identified.
Sudden spike in Euro....surged from 1.2250 to 1.2284 within minutes
40 Lac Roll Over in next NF series up to 12 PM.Up to 12 PM NF Jul O.I. is 1.91 and 1.32 Cr. O.I. is between 5305 and 5380 for next series.Today 5305 still holding in spite of a current NF new low.
Thank u Anil. Our copy cat is responding.
===
When Sir is around every one throws levels and knowledge - it is required MOST when he is busy. Oh learned ones, brandish your swords that you sharpened on Ilango.
Only Yoda gave clues. Sir, Are you having a private party with PS,Biz,Arun,Prabha,GB,Sri...?
Hai everyone
Nifty 30 minutes chart with a violated channel.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/nifty-thirty-minutes-channel.html
Thank you
@pradhan,
Good analysis. I feel 51 or above is a good target level for EXCELINFO.
-- gd
prashant nifty is near ur sl of 5320 . if hit can we s&r there
Dear Blogmates,
Logically ( not technically) am I correct that considering the above fact if NF July shall break 5305 in coming sessions/days with VOLUME then one can think to go short convincingly?
Good one, RG.
Ohhhhhh YES, I am not Ilango's critic.
Yes Mynac, i m with you.
couple of brokerages have recommeded long in nifty target of 5335 and 5350 respectively intraday. pls comment can i go long ?
hi rgsir,
@yoda
u have a very good screen experience.
Hi RG,
It is NSE or NSEINDIA.com
Nifty has bounced exactly form 35 hour sma line
nifty 5-hour sma had crossed below 20sma, if
it doesn't move over and above 20 sma now (which will be
possible only if it crosses 5220, we will have a
fast fall sma set up in the hourly
holding shorts taken @5305 with sl of 5320 and 5300 puts(4lots)
taken @25 with sl of 10
@ soha
yes one should reverse above 5320
Dear bizagra,
Please do remember that I am not an expert.It is a just thought.You are requested to take only Dear Ilango's opinion for the same.
Maruti broke at with volume today from seems to be a Flag in the daily chart.
yes mynac.
Thanks
Think-GOP : u r right. it must be nseindia.com
Hero Honda is on the verge of breakout of a Cup & Handle pattern.
don't exit shorts until it crosses 5220 in spot
@RG,
What is performance scale of “DONE” list on BTST list..it will help us to understand if we have enough steam to climb up or dried to drift down..
2050 is the resistance for Hero Honda.
RG,
can you shed some light on this apparent strength of the auto sector?
Hi RG,
Under derivative there is no
DAILY Volitility menu is not thr
@yoda,
Can you pls check 26 ema level for s&P too,.. in the recent past co-relation of S&P and Nifty is too good..according to me, yesterday s&P bounced from 26 ema..
Looks like the positive divergence is playing out nicely.
short trade in nifty reversed to long
exited puts
bought 5300 call @ 36
@Prashant,
Appreciate your constant follow-up msgs on your trades… hit or miss whatever it is..
assortZ,
I find it hard to follow Nifty - I wonder how ppl follow more than one index.:D
But Nifty's definitely bounced off the 26-ema. Ppl with shorts may wish to get off at the next low and go long (I'm trying to live up to RG and piyush's praise.:p)
aZ:
Scrip Name Trade Signal HIGH-Rs LOW-Rs
ABB Not Clear 895.10 847.10
ACC Not Clear 872.98 850.02
AXISBANK Not Clear 1258.76 1212.54
BHARTI Down 268.74 255.26
BHEL Not Clear 2465.16 2402.64
BPCL UP 562.84 537.46
CAIRN Not Clear 311.06 299.64
CIPLA Not Clear 341.05 331.65
DLF Not Clear 295.31 281.19
GAIL Not Clear 476.61 464.49
GRASIM UP 1860.25 1728.75
GUJAMBUJA UP 120.98 116.52
HCLTECH Down 388.45 371.65
HDFC Not Clear 3024.58 2933.92
HDFCBANK Not Clear 2015.40 1958.70
HEROHONDA Not Clear 2052.12 1987.88
HINDALCO UP 156.03 147.27
HLL Not Clear 265.73 257.77
ICICIBANK Not Clear 910.24 872.96
IDEA Not Clear 56.00 53.00
INFOSYS Not Clear 2810.36 2723.84
ITC UP 306.16 297.44
L&T UP 1858.81 1791.49
M&M Not Clear 647.31 618.99
MARUTIUD Not Clear 1391.13 1346.97
NALCO UP 450.48 434.62
NTPC Down 202.04 197.26
ONGC Not Clear 1221.75 1172.45
POWERGRID Down 103.74 101.46
RANBAXY UP 465.95 450.85
REL Not Clear 1202.41 1139.79
RELCAP Not Clear 782.25 741.25
RELICOMM Not Clear 193.37 178.73
RIL Not Clear 1082.70 1044.90
RPOWER Not Clear 175.24 164.86
SAIL Not Clear 203.33 194.07
SBI Not Clear 2393.08 2316.02
SIEMENS UP 748.60 722.90
STERLITE Down 183.90 173.50
SUNPHARM Not Clear 1783.97 1739.33
SUZENER Not Clear 57.93 54.97
TATAMOTORS Not Clear 819.79 775.51
TATAPOW UP 1340.36 1302.94
TCSCONS Not Clear 791.73 765.57
TISCO Not Clear 505.80 482.30
UNITECH UP 76.20 72.30
WIPRO Down 413.57 399.23
This is how it looks VIX. With so many cats on the wall how to decide the trend?
sl for long 5310 ns
But really, I was hoping for nifty to close that huge gap - doesn't seem to be happening.
will reverse again below 5310
it is very much possible that nifty will crash in the later part of the day.. i guess around 5260.
@Prashant
Never reverse your trade in hurry. Keep eye on Euro-$ chart...after another spike it's falling off in a hurry....if Euro falls mkts will fall.
Sir,
BNF shorted @9710(july) sl is monday high ( 9793)
@yoda,
Sometimes it’s interesting to see the behavior of index across globe..they all sing a same tune..
@RG,
I think I invited trouble..i was somehow in +ve bias..but your list rubbed the +ve thought :)..thanks for the list…
Manni,
May be the problem of whipsaw lies in playing from middle of the range. According to Ilango, the range is from 5275-80 to 5325-40. So, buying above 5320 means buying near the upper boundary of the range. I would prefer either breakout of the high of yesterday or buying near 5275 with a SL below 5240-50.
Think:
http://www.nseindia.com/
In this "Market Today"
7th (seventh) sub menu is "Daily V...". Just checked.(Since I use a short cut haven't closely noted the site).
i am expecting a big gap down tomorrow,if nifty does not fall today and trades in small range ..may see tgts of 5250-5230
@Fire
Correct...
all I want to convey is if SL gets wiped out...sq. off & wait for the correct levels to enter again...don't reverse trade in hurry.
4L puts added at 5300. Explains to some extent the runup.
-- gd
@ fire
yes I exited in a hurry
the high was 5319.25
exited longs
taken short again
Any view of HDFC BNAK i have long position
BE ALERT
THIS IS TOTALLY A FAKE RALLY TO TRAP THE BULLS
SHORTLY NIFTY WILL BE UNDER HUGE PRESSURE
Nifty future sold @ 5322 SL 5332
bought 5300 puts (4lots)@16
rg sir,
evaluate it
slight positive div in nifty,
gap which is acting as support is below
it is above day hema.
hourly is improving.
where shud it go?
Loss for the day (till now)
Nifty future 5322-5305=17 points
5324-5322=2 points
nifty put 25-18=7*4=28 points
Total loss=47 points
@Manni,
Yes you are absolutely right that some time narrow range trading mkts kills trader especially Option buyers in both way,better to wait for appropriate level/time for taking positions.
Sir & family
GA..
sir ..do u trade on such days..scalping type
r positional
There is no weakness in the indian market.
where is the weakness?
Sunil,
HDFC Bank is above all the daily and weekly averages. It will break out above 2010. :)
Thanx Fire
You know, the nifty may just have reacted to the 5-ema/26-ema crossover with that rise - the rsi has quickly reached oversold lvls. Paresh and Vijay, etc may be right.
Sir,
Nifty Shorted ( july) NS@5320 Sl is week high 5367
@ yoda i guess u mean o/b levels.
if this rise cant carry it to 5340 -5350
then maybe we will go down
that is where correction started
@Lazydude,
Yes if Europe recovered with US mkts then we will have positive open with our peers tomorrow which lift our mkts to 5380-5400 odd level at expiry
For that we have to close above 5325-5335
PS : + it is Wednesday - what we get upto 2.30 cud be the High for the day. Waiting to exit longs.
Look friends time decay/range mkts kills the option buyers in both way!
sorry 5345-5355
@Prashant, what about the brokerage cost in loss?
yes rg sir wed 2.30 negative but yesterday shud have
been positive we did negaiive. so today maybe??
if we are range bound today maybe bump up tomm??
MLL breaks out of an Inverse Head & Shoulder with rising volume.
PS : Absolutely. Wish we close w/o much loss (-27-35) and with a gap up, the expiry cud be OK.
(Tuesday & Wed can exchange rules?)
oops, yes, I meant o/b, piyush.
If NF manages to close above 5339 at 2 pm, then some more points on the upside can be expected. Otherwise, as RG expects, back to the pavilion.
Vijaya Bank chart is looking awesome in every timeframe. The better chartists present here can confirm it for us. Requesting them...
FIRE - GOOD BET. TGT 70 by month end (rate revision sword is hanging).
Nifty unable to sustain above 5334 POC for the day, holding it only give positive options above.
Dow Jones has clearly broken the raising channel it formed in hour chart.
The index has closes below its 200 day moving average.
The 3rd chart shows the possible retracement levels of this rise from 9700 regions. right now it is trading near the 38.2% level.
For bears...
Baltric dry index is falling like anything, world indices are inching up and its moving down..leading a suspicion to this rally..it should be remembered as a reflection of the worldwide demand for dry goods, and then note that it has broken down completely...
a note worth keeping in mind...for bulls too...
if dow does not recover today
can be a big berish
which is likely
I am 75% out of my longs@ 5339 as suggested in the pre-market range and warned by RG.
Will buy again below 5300.As this is a 4th wave, I would prefer buying in dips than taking shorts. Going with the larger trend is safer.
RG,
could you please check the weekly chart of Vijaya Bank? Looks like a huge upside potential.
Is some news expected for Steel post market ?
'Back to the pavilion' seems to have been a good assessment.:)
FIRE - VB - I am biased. I am Long for a target of rs 70 near term.
NIFTY the real fighter today. Please have the same break fast every day Sir.Can u stand for another 30 mins?
RG, who isn't biased here?:)
@RG,
Bears boarded in the bus at first stop itself (start of the series)..whereas bulls were keep boarding in each stop for last one week +..making no room to allow the bears get down from bus… :)
I believe this is the reason, NIFTY is not drifting down…
suggsted to trade tech m, for last half an hour of a trade on long side
please visit my blog
thanks
stock2gains.blogspot.com
Yes Yoda. Who is not - majority Short-but mine is a Long living one.
Surprisingly wide gap between Nifty and Sensex +/-. It is almost 1:18 (Nifty down 1 point against Sensex 18). Normal ratio is around 1:4 or 1:6.Is it an aberration? Or I am just reading too much into
it?
==
aZ : Noted. Now the Bus must not lose fuel.
Wish someone touched Yes Bank. Has given Rs 13 so far, from yesterday's post.
(2200/per lot means good return).
@Raja today .. june 23
the date is very important according to some advanced elliot wave analysis based on nifty hourly chart. U r very intelligent, pls try to solve it, may be strategy to become a billionaire lies behind it.
Thanks & Regards.
Arunima (Indian)
@Raja....U r very intelligent
The name and description do not gel. Is there other Raja.. here?
Hi Arunima - were u posting under "Indian" earlier ? If so Long live. I was wondering about this missing name. today.
Now that I have blessed you, please tell me whether to cut my LONGS or SHORTS or MYSELF ?
Ilango sir missing u today sir hope ur having a nice day take care
Good afternoon Ilango sir and all,
The day High EMA as per 3.00m close comes to 5317. Will nifty close below it or get a bounce from it as a support tomorrow?
Hi Ilango, what corrective type will the 4th wave turn
out to be - zigzag/triangle?
OUT of the MArket:
Anybody planning to visit "SEMMOZHI MANADU"??
@Anil - yes baltic dry index is behaving like most of the
other markets(hsi/shanghai). However India is still going strong. COuld it turn
out like 2008 when we were among the last to crack?
Looks like nifty is finding support from the Day High ema!!!!
rg,
there can be only one Raja at a time at a given place and time.So pl own your territory just like THE LION KING.-:)
Another higher low formed today..we are constantly making higher highs/lows..why am so optimistic today :) ?
Sathish - I understand "Coimbatore" looks like "Singapore". Otherwise Kalaignar TV is there.
R U Going?
I meant..the range is now 5285-5370 based on swing low/highs..its narrowing..are we going to break this range tomorrow ?
Hi Manoj - Lion King ??? Yoda note. I am Lion today.
===
Satheesh "nifty is finding support from the Day High ema" - Higher points are SUPPORTS or RESISTANCE?
It clearly seems there are many shorts in the system, and this last half hour volume clearly implied this..many r covering on every fall thats why bigbang fall is not happening...
only global cues will tell in time, where we r going to land..
RAJA
u r the king
and today in the absence of i llango sir, u had the most no. of comments, show that, u r the lion king
RG sir,
Planned to go but after hearing the difficulties faced/facing by coimbatorians to make the manadu a "SUCCESSFUL" venture - I lost heart!! I am not going!!!
I meant 5317 is acting as a cushion and Nifty is rising to higher levels and not closing below 5317 - that means 5317 is only a support - am I clear?
Getting ready for loosing money for Short trade in BN and NIfty... Carrying for tomorrow
You are a lion everyday, and most esp today, RG.:D
Anil, today was very worrying - no fall and maybe turnabout. Certainly doesn't look like it'll readily close the gaps. What do the other biased shortists make of it? (the lion is exempted.:)
Got it Satheesh.
Thank you Friends.
Bye Sir.
@arunima
am new to blog can u tell me hw to trade using excel calculator pl reply on nemiinvestment@yahoo.co.in
Many Thx
Dear Anil,
Thanks.You have raised very nice point regarding Baltic Dry Index. The following link is for those who wants to know about it.
http://www.answers.com/topic/baltic-dry-index#Why_economists_and_stock_markets_read_it
Daily Nifty trend and Recommendations-
http://nifty-tips-calls.blogspot.com
Get Free Share tips-
Plz Visit http://sharetips-today.blogspot.com
Hi,
Nifty Charts Overview - Resistance and Support Level
http://sharesonlinecharts.blogspot.com/2010/06/watch-todays-nifty-charts-overview.html
@ RG : The name and description do not gel. Is there other Raja.. here?
I think "NO" you are the à®°ாஜாதி à®°ாஜன் இந்த à®°ாஜா
@ Sir : கோவை குலுà®™்குகிறது செà®®்à®®ொà®´ி à®®ாநாட்டால். தங்கள் மகன் எப்படி இருக்கிà®±ாà®°்
@ Illango Sir, Arumina & other blogmates...
I am a silent reader of this blog, though am not able to execute my plans correctly, but learning each day from this blog.
Arumina's Fibonacci calculator worked beautifully this week and following is my understanding from it.
Please see this and correct me if I am wrong...
http://tryingtrade.blogspot.com/2010/06/magical-fabbonaci-numbers.html
Thanks & Regards,
teejay
http://tryingtrade.blogspot.com/2010/06/magical-fabbonaci-numbers.html
Arunima, teejay, thanks for showing us how it can be used! teejay, do more posts on it so that we can follow the fibo calc system better.
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