As mentioned in the comments section, larger trend remains up.(Day - up; week: most likely to turn up with today's close above 5077)
Friday, June 4, 2010
Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ...
69 comments:
http://www.brameshtechanalysis.com/index.php/2010/06/banknifty-technical-analysis/
Bank Nifty HnS Pattern 9300 Holds the Key
sir,
thanks for "weakness-short lived" comment..SL trailed to longs :)
Nifty has broken 15 DMA yesterday and has touched 30 and 100 DMA. 30 DMA breaking 100 DMA downwards. Today's close is critical.
TISCO:
Sir,
By closing below 5EMA and Day's MP yesterday, TISCO gave a "DOWN" signal yesterday for a target of 472 yesterday in both EQ and FO. But in both Eq & Fo it has OS status in Week. From an opening of 483 it went down to 478 (but not the bottom VIX). Under such scene is OS the saving grace? Is TISCO yet to exhibit the strength to denote Uptrend?
Rg
only abv 492
Sorry for the "Yesterdays" in my msg. Data read Yesterday gave the trend and target for Today.
Ilango sir, sud conservatives exit if closes below day high ema today??
Thanks
If there is a larger downtrend in store for Tisco, it may just do time correction and head lower.
There are two ways a reversal moves take place:
1. A small upmove followed by a retracement upto 90 to 95% and then a very large upmove. This happens to stocks that have fallen tremendously and there are no takers even at the bottom with the market itself in an indecisive mode.
2.A sharp reversal followed by a shallow correction as buyers have been waiting for certain levels to come and they are sure of the uptrend and most of the upmove is captured in the first move itself.
Last time "SBI" fell into this first category. It is a late mover.
Now market being tentative, Tisco's bearishness is persisting. The breakout point of 492 only brought the sellers. If it is base building, this band should hold & then break on the upside.
@ganesh,
i just started this last week. So i am myself learning. Since I cannot stay up all days in the night, I maintain only day/week data. I have not uploaded anywhere yet. I should in case my machine crashes. I get EOD data from chartnexus.
gd
bank nifty
sir
thnx i think i m biased//
will trade accrdingly..
nyways its a difficult stock..need to sit tight with it
Sir, so will it be right time to start accumulating Tisco?
@ bizagra,
It is unlikely to happen today - closing below Day High ema.
@ Satheesh,
The SL would be very close if you do that.
@ Satheesh,
Was that spurt in Tata steel because "you bought"..??
Tisco flies
thnx sateesh..keep buying:)
thats a goodone, :) sir
satheesh after a break a good take :)
Ilango sir, part booking adviced @ 5160 or we can look for more
upsides in coming days(like TA saying H&S target 5400)??
Thanks
Hi Sethuji - 789 and 788 were the VIX targets in TMF. Let us see and hope it carries Ashok Leyland with it. Normally they move in tandem - like BHEL and L&T.
Sir,
Just a Fundamental view, when any one TATA group biggy moves like TMF,TCS,TISCO - it carries the others with it. Will the softies and Steel ride Nano this drive?
Sir,
Since we are talking temporarily about specific stocks, I beg your analysis on Bharti. It is a nifty stock, one of the largest telecom players and has corrected very deeply. There is a small upmove. Is this an indicator of things to come.
Please advise.
Hi RG sir!
Yesterday v discussed little about Inverse Head & shoulder formation & its minimum target of 5150-5200. Nifty just made high of 5148, seeking ur comments sir. Though i still feel that Nifty's work may be finished for today But But But " Picture abhi baaki hai mere dost". Thanks for encouraging comments always to everyone.
RGrds,
KUMAR
helo
Folks go short tomorrow
@ 5170
Ilango - your target of 5020 is bang on!
but first 5120 on monday
@ Bizagra,
5200+ is possible and if weekly too turning up may have more in store.
@ Rajagopal,
This is a sympathy move of a particular group co. Though a temporary sync is possible, individual TA will prevail. Even the % of upmove will vary.
@ Shruti,
I will have a look at that chart.
Shruti - just my understanding.
===
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1. Telecoms are at cross roads - very thin margin due to price wars.
2. Bharti has increased its debt burden for the African Safari and 3G.
3. Last year posted 3400 crore profit, and the increased interest ouflow is equal to this amount.
4. African bill collection is an huge problem-inherited debts also.
5. What extra revenue will 3G+Africa generate is big question.
It is good to pick up at 260 and exit @ 320 as of now.
+
But Bharti Mittal is a great business mind.
6. Lot of M&A and consolidation is on the card in Telecom. All small players will be swallowed and Price Wars may cease.
Sethuji...
Hi GB - Welcome
"Gautam Bajaj said...
Folks go short tomorrow
June 4, 2010 2:44 PM" Today is FRIDAY. You mean short today?
What would be the Hour High EMA for 3.00pm?
@RG, Good points. Now, Bada bhai wants a slice of the shrinking(?) pie in his own style -
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/RIL-to-offer-3G-WiMAX-devices-in-telecom-splash/628588/
@ Shruti,
Bhartiairtel is "Over Sold" and trdeable in the short term for longs. A short term double bottom pattern to suggest strength.
5133 NS 5120 NF
manoj,
hour high ema 3pm
hey RG .. lol lost track of time
MOK,
Thanks
Short on Monday
5170
Leaving now.. speak later
Dear Kumar,
"Inverse Head & shoulder" - I only know it as a Shampoo brand. For Nifty I just refer to the encyclopedia(Just Nifty) no self medication. I am not a Techie. But I have noted your levels. You must interact with MR GB here - fyi he can pin it.
Sir, i am not such a huge trader to cause spikes on buying. Hopefully with your blessing and guidance I may become onr in future
test
Dear RG!
Thanx for ur instruction, i will interact with GB in future. take care & thanx for ur reply.
Rgrds,
KUMAR
photo finish
bracketed trades, interesting day.
bye all
:)
Dear Kumar,
It is not instruction. Honestly I an illiterate in Charts and Patterns. Any stock I refer to the Tech table and respond.
Bye Sir. Bye friends.
Dear Sir,
Seems we had a bull trap today just afetr our market closed the news of hungary after greeece
it seems the europe problems are much larger
ya, power trade
and then ddid u notice the timmings of the notification issued by government order regarding company's public share holdings
what a timmings boss
these operators really know their job very very well
first threw a perfect bull trap
and then threw a perfect negative news
god, where is all the ability in our systems in alreay these kind of weak sentiments to suck out those kind of public offers which would be requireed by these companies to reduce their share holdings to 75 %, that too within a year
watch the panics in the markets on MONDAY
may be a black monday,
WHAT DO U SUGGEST guys
do u p[eople agree with me for a black MONDAY
and really to add to the all the problems i had
i bought some PFC shares DOT @ 3.29 PM
already a V formed on SGX nifty
v shaped dip
low 5080
what say people
Rochak
Today i had bought 2000 5100 put at 97 and squared in panic at the close .......... Things are the same for all we have been trapped by the bulls....... hope so market gives a shorting oppurtunity on monday....
Thanks Sir and RG for your inputs on Bharti. it does give me a lot of confidence as I picked up the shares at 315.
Have a great weekend. The best thing about markets is - however battered and bruised one is, tomorrow is a new day.
power
market never gives a readymade opportunity
its the trader itself who has to take the opportunities
risk taking opportunities
Hi rochak,
There is no surprise in this govt announcement as it was being discussed in the last two budgets…It was supposed to be announced as soon as after the last budget..for your ref, link below
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/5845340.cms
So, request yourself not to worry and also do not panic others :)
We will dance as usual to the dow/asian/Europe tunes..
hi, do not get panicky and start unloading ...
let us wait and watch, and
do whatever in a relaxed planned way.
Like I said in the morning instead of inv. hns there could be another hns in the making if we fall to 5000 odd levels in the next 1-2 days....still waiting for confirmation....lets c.
@Rochak, pls review the news full, the new Govt order says companies where the public holding is less than 25%, will have to reach the minimum level by an annual addition of not less than 5%. If they fail to do that, they will have to restore the 25% public holding in one year. So its not going to be a hush hush situation, 5% liquidation over 1 year is not a big deal, dude. Never get panicky, be cool.
Source: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/cnbc-tv18-comments/25-public-holding-must-for-all-listed-cos-govt_462228.html
Markets back to its business of taking all analysts by
surprise.With all TA parameters aligned with such
bullishness, who would've thought of going short today?
@ rammyril: Half of the market players are short. Don't forget that :)
first of all friends
its not me , who is in panic
and wait , just wait till monday to see what PANIc really is
i mean
in the year 2007, which was the best year for indian equities, we could not dilute the papers worth rs. 27000 crores which were presented to us]
and gave the markets a reason to fall big ( only a reason, markets did not fall due to that )
and now
as if now
as per govt. norms of 5 % equity dillution must in first year itself
the paper worth more than 61000 crores has to be digested by markets under the market conditions we are in
and then
u know, dow also cracked more than 2-2.5 % due to its own another reason
i only mentioned that, and also the reading of SGX nifty
i did not say, get panic
but the button is pressed already
i agree with MOK and others, do not get panic,
and sell everything
but,
u know markets generally hav a tendency towards a KNEE JERK REACTION
which can not be rulled out in the first hour of trade on monday
AND MORE SPECIFICALLY
my post only was to aware u people
about the OPERATORS
operating the markets on their own
creating their postions
and timmings the GOVT POLICY ANNOUNCEMENTS as per their convenience
why all the major annnouncements
i.e.
ambani brothers patch up
oil price hike
rbi policy announcements
PN NOTE announcements
and recently
the fresh public share holding announcements
are made specifially
on weekends after the market hours
does somebody had a thought on that
this is just b coz, the govt. policy announcements are TIMED by the so called BIG POCKETS after they hav taken their favourable positions in the markets
i am sure
these big pockets operators wud hav shorted the markets today afternoon and then timed the markets
and then i raise the most IMPORTANT QUESTION
why our election results last year were timed on a weekend
JUST THINK OVER THIS PEOPLE
Europe down 2%. S&P down 2%. Monday could get bad.
gd
hi rochak
i know you mean well, just that i thought it would be better whatever we do we better do in an organized way so that we dont get washed off by the flood of frenzy,
:)
if there is a method to madness, let us follow it methodically.
emotion could rob us the opportunity to watch the monitor with cold eyes and press the keys with cool fingers.
and, emotion or not, what is to happen keeps happening, but if we maintain poise we can run better towards safety instead of getting caught in stampede.
i mean well, in friendly rochak, market is market, we are bystanders in this big chess board, like ants among the mammoth movers. Lets wait and move along with them, following the trend to make the day.
:)
your info is a timely one. thanks for that. have a nice weekend, lets see where dow goes tonight, and where monday goes after the initial frenzy, and do what is needed.
@Harsh Mehta:Agreed there is negative sentiment in the
air;but my query was based on taking up positions
purely based on TA; as always,several factors are in
play,off course TA being the major one.
Hi,
All negative news to gathered after closing our Mkts as Dow fut. also down nearly 200 points due to fresh Euro-zone woes & published weak job data.
If Dow closed with remarkable losses then Asian & our Mkts will open with negative gap which will fueled the panic fire on Monday
In that case 4980 level will be act as support.
Let's see!!!!
rochak,
It is a agreed practice that all important news announcement has to be made only after market hours so as not to disturb the price in the market. The weekend allows time for the public to think it over. There is no design as you see.
Second if your statement //i am sure
these big pockets operators wud hav shorted the markets today afternoon // is true then the market wld'not have witnessed this closing.
rochak,
Reg your other fear about absorption of new paper issuance...be assured, this is miniscule when compared with investing surplus of our Financial Institutions..
@all option analysts,.
Ur views on eod position..
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