Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ...
79 comments:
Shangai Market down 4.25%
and other asian are close to 1.5% each.
pls take this into consideration. Also today 5300 Calls added 25% more OI, white 5300 Put options shed 9% OI.
June 29, 2010 12:15 PM
This is my understanding. No TA method is ideal. Only the market is ideal. Instead of walking blindly in the dark, TA will help a lot like a torch. One should not blame on torch, if he falls. The most important thing we should understand is for a "very short time" no TA is 100% correct, but surely this will be excellent in a relatively longer time frame if PROPERLY used.
Though predicting the the direction of the movement of the market is not so easy, here it is done with appreciable accuracy. Thanks a lot.
mag, pl. forgive me for my ignorance as i trade only futures - 5300 calls added 25% more OI - does that mean that less chances of NIFTY getting back to 5300? as I don't understand option terminology - i am asking this.
Ilango sir, one curious query... when China is hitting 52-week low and Hang seng and Nikkei also down 2%, what is the rationale behind your thinking of this being a shallow correction upto 5250-60 considering our markets retraced almost all fall than the world markets? I think time has come where we will adjust our levels to global levels. Whats your view?
Guys check Hangseng RT charts here
http://hangsengrtcharts.blogspot.com/
See the Big Red Candle we are in for a serious fall if 5260 is taken out 5245 should be next support
Rgds,
Bramesh
@Rajagopal
pls guide me to hold the position of RCOM.
I bought it at 204
thanx,
tanmay
Ilango sir, i hope we are taking 5240 as SL or s&r??
Thanks
Scalpers can attempt here for 15-20 points.
Dear all!
Technical analysis is game of probability & if one is trading on basis of technicals then he must be ready to execute STOP LOSS also. Without stop loss u cant say its trading, that is like gambling. Technical shows risk reward ratio & u can take benefits of those ratios.
Rgrds,
KUMAR
5300PE is showing reflectance to move higher price, though its In The Money of nearly 40.
Tanmay - rather than performance and TA, just news is driving this counter around. What ever happens, I am not bullish on Telecom for the near future. I will exit if I get my COST. If u can hold, may be the news is around the corner on Bade bhai's involvement in R Com.(JUST A THOUGHT).
The first ECB 12-months LTRO – €440bn – is due back on Wednesday so the
question is where the banks go get the money. There is presently €310bn
excess in the system which is some €200bn more than usual, so in a very
simple sense, maybe the banks will fund some €220bn at the ECB’s 3-months
LTROs. However, that’s a big number and doing so at 1% when 3-months
Euribor is a good deal cheaper might highlight that there are still a lot
of banks without access to the interbank market. As a rough guess,
therefore, maybe we’ll see €150-200bn taken from the ECB and the rest from
the interbank market? If we were to see them take well over €200bn from
the ECB on Wednesday, Euribor would likely move higher and concerns about
the banks might increase yet again. Banks might take a big number though
simply to play it safe – or because they see increasing opportunities
again: Lending even to the non-financial corporate world was up in May for
the first time in 16 months, and with the EFSF getting in place, maybe
banks will become more interested in lending to the sovereigns again?
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Also on Wednesday, Greece formally falls out of the indices because of
their downgrade. How much selling will that cause? I have no clue, but I
would fail to understand why investors would have waited till the last day
to get rid of their Greek bonds when they have known about the issue since
June 15. Indeed, we saw quite a bit of selling right after the news of
the downgrade came out (and probably a good chunk of ECB buying of Greek
bonds at that time.) Which leads me to the new announcement that the
Greek governments intends to roll over 3, 6 and 12 month treasury bills
maturing in July; a total of about €3.5bn. Auctions are expected on
Tuesday 13th and on Tuesday 20th July. Since the IMF-EU package is fully
funded (i.e. no need for commercial borrowing) through 2011, and the
numbers are coming in somewhat better than expected, there should be no
need for this borrowing – so why are they doing it? Could it be that they
are responding to demand from banks and other investors who have started
to appreciate that a debt restructuring the next 12 months is very
unlikely and therefore looking for high-yielding assets? If so, this
would be a mis-guided move, in my opinion, and – frankly – I hope the IMF
and EU would tell them to back off.
above is meghal sir comment
For me, EW was like holding up a candle in a very dark and incomprehensible market.
Imagine how Elliot felt when he recognised a pattern after years of study, like the ocean waves that rise and fall by natural Fibonacci numbers! Must have been like a day dawning after the night.:)
@ Ganesh,
If some one were to trade based on China - he would have missed all the rallies of our market.
There are few world markets which are in uptrend and some are in a corrective phase.
US markets have corrected deep while we didn't do that way. We follow what our market's price behaviour is and act accordingly.
We spotted the 4th wave(assumed so far) correction towards the channel bottom and the channel support is still some distance. It may break down a bit (faking) before reversing.
That is the plan.
But, after breaking the channel, if it does not reverse, we will reverse our positions too.
HI
Ilango SIR
what is channel bottom? now?
Convincing answer, sir. Thanks.
@ All
Any one using ADx in their trading take a look at the following current chart of Nifty Spot hourly;
http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4116/4745282876_080b8660da_b.jpg
and this is an older chart from my archives explaining the play more clearly;
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3162/3064634195_53a72549b8_o.png
Cheers!!!
@rajapaji
thanks for that option link BUT...
"Chennai 11th July 2010 in Hotel Ambika Empire by Mr Ranjan"
For that can you book me an air ticket to chennai?
I just have a few pennies left...can afford a bullock cart ride only
so I will be later to reach the venue!!!
Sir
i hv exited my intra shrts..
i missed friday conservative longs..
cn i take the cnsrvt trade with a sl when u reverse
Options data don't indicate a typical fall out.. Am I HOPING things will not bother us too much..(why this thing always acts as an indicator to follow .. and why its only to me) ..
@ Ganesh,
adding to what Ilango has said, I have seen so many instances
in the last few weeks, where our markets have acted independently
based on TA than what the world markets are doing.
That being said, I think on a bigger picture, if world markets are going to
correct for a prolonged period, say, next 2 years then we will probably
be in a downtrend too.
anuj pa ji..
can catch the bull and come back n a bear
Hi Anuj - No. I just read it as "audio presentation" hence gave the link. No audio of the last web-minar ?
..to Chennai. From/to and Return Date?
@ all
Question for the day...
If the BIG Institutions have such an edge and supposedly know so much more than the typical trader/investor, why do so many of them go Bust?????????
ilango...how can we put a sl in future instead of ns. its got confused me if i am not in front of the terminal.
Dear ILango sir!
I do believe if u help to anybody then give him job instead of money either he will not be independent whole life. Today some people r crying bcoz their longs stop loss hit & they could not do it. I again request u to give levels & views hourly only then everyone will try to learn & that will be highly beneficial for all of us.
Rgrds,
KUMAR
"Overconfidence" is the word !!!!
"Hotel Ambika Empire" Anuj I don't about Ranjan but very good place to have old Mo(n)k.
@manu mamajaan
wrong advice...
Chennai is down south...have to ride a bear and then come back on a bull
But bear has already reached banglore...I am still stranded in delhi
The Nifty rollover for this series was mainly between 5260 and 5370 and addition of 23 lac in NF o.I. up to 12.50PM.
T2T
Because they are playing with others money.
Just see friends for all who are challenging the master who has almost more than 18 years of experience ........... see the low of spot not even 5260 fully......... we all see only one paremeter to trade and the master sees all the parameters before arriving at a conclusion........Better to follow one as " Too may cooks spoil the food "
@ rajapaji
If that's the case...then forget options..I can come running to chennai!!
you will save on your air ticket as well!!
:))
@manoj Jag
yups....like they say about interior decorators too "Big Spenders of other people money"
I read a nice quote some where;
"The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge."
Funny?
1.Yesterday's Price move listed all but 1 counter as "UP".
2.Metals barring Gold is also in negative trend.
Is the over all mood GLOOMY ?
@ mynac.
addition of 23 Lakh OI in NF. what does it suggest. is it build up of short or long?????
help required to understand OI
"5225" is the channel bottom for the day. It may not break it today.
In a fake break down, it can move below it by 20-30 points and can reverse too.(You may find some +ve div at that time).
If it is a deeper correction, it can fall again after a pause. Aggressive traders can sell @ 5285-5305 zone. Keep a SL 5330.
@ manu,
Being in corrective phase, we suggested only a 25% long @ 5255-5265.
Another 25% may be added @ 5215-5235 whenever that comes. One can keep a S&R @ 5175.
Oot compensation trading idea!!
Positional trade
Short bank nifty future at CMP
Stop loss 9620
target 9420
....but what if tomorrow is a gap up?
June 28, 2010 3:21 PM
**********************************
Target achieved (you can trade with coin toss method too)
Greedy traders can hold till 9380
Will update SAR eod later in my blog
@manu mamajan
Can you throw another stone to measure the depth of market fall?
So that short trader can book profit at that level?
Some positive divergence is seen in 5 & 10 minutes charts.
European Index opening and auto update chart
http://ftsertcharts.blogspot.com/
Big Red candle in FTSE also
Rgds
Bramesh
sir
thankooo
but nw S&r 5175 earlier 5240..
i m a bit confused..
big players/operators are very smart people.They started covering 5300 PE , while writing 5300 CE in the morning, smelling big downside today. Now see, how big money they are making, taking money out of innocents.
@ manu,
S&R has been 5175 for a very long time.
"5240" is a SL to protect the existing longs with minimum damage. 5240 was based on shallow correction. It looks to be a deeper one towards 5225 or lower.
@ mag,
There are no "innocent" in the market place. Only "ignorant" or " prepared/ smart" ones.
One last long attempt... just for peanuts...
rajnish kumar said...
@ mynac.
addition of 23 Lakh OI in NF. what does it suggest. is it build up of short or long?????
=====
Well there is no way to know I believe.. whether short or long.. a position just opens..
But I love to know more about it from the experts here..
Sir,
It looks BN reaches stock wealth target (9300) today itself :)
Hai everyone
Nifty futures hour chart channel breaks. Wait for the hour candle to close before taking a trade.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/nifty-futures-hour-chart-channel-broken.html
Thank you
@san,
which charting software do u use for hourly charts ?
-- gd
@golfdude
GCIMT4
San,
can you please check the NF 5 minutes chart? It seems that NF has hit the lower boundary of channel, which is still holding. Connecting the 23/6 and 25/6 th low and extending it brings the lower boundary.
If 5250 is broken, the next logical stop will be @ 20 sma.around 5200+
big players/operators are very smart people.They started covering 5300 PE , while writing 5300 CE in the morning, smelling big downside today. Now see, how big money they are making, taking money out of innocents.
@FIRE
That too is broken for the time being.
San,
It doesnt look like so. I can send you the chart I am seeing currently if you give me a mail address.
Still like old Zamindars putting "Silk Scarf" over torn shirt - NIFTY is not shedding premium.
@FIRE
Its showing 5048 now it must have broken now
Dear rajnish kumar, Dear Rama,
Today's O.I. build up at present obviously favoring bears. Because it was added when Nifty came down gradually. It looks, the meaningful addition to me. Only the worried part is the timing of the fall i.e. since morning and forming new low after every hour is weakening the chances of intraday reversal, if any, but who knows because market is always supreme. Let us see. We shall watch out the levels .
Sir - WV maggy driven?
@ RG,
Maggot driven.
San,
Yeah, it just tested the line @5250 and showed a bit below it. Not good news for a bull like me. :(
We had our doubts yesterday, rightly raised by "GG" about the fake "b" wave and the opening downmove confirmed it.
All the other studies wait for the previous low to be breached to confirm it.
This is one of the major plus point of EW.
Sir
Please chk out this chart:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_0omNQHJs2Fg/TCmulvf-uII/AAAAAAAAAFI/h35T429hpuI/s1600/WaveChart.png
Now even an hourly closing below the channel.
Hai everyone
I am posting the NF 15 minutes chart with the channel. Bulls Should not get worried> Look for masters levels were you might get support. But remember your stop loss too.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/nifty-futures-15-minutes-chart-with.html
Thank you
@Manni
That's a good one. If that repeats bulls should get worried
Thank you
ilango sir
is it time to exit all long?
please advice
as i am on long at 5339
At last, the bull looks like it will get a little control.:)
Greedy traders can hold till 9380
Target achieved!!!
Now have to toss the coin again
@ San
Please give the link of GCIMT4 software.
what is charges of this software.
thanks
Amrender Gill
5200 on closing basis can put sl for long in short term.
good place at 5240 enter long here for positional view.
Ilango sir, i m having no conservative trades now.Sud i short for
40-50 points or wait for going long near 5200?I m confused plz help.
Thanks
@amrender
I think i took it from marketcalls.in
It is testing Hour channel bottom with positive divergence.
= = = = = = = = =
NEW POST DONE.
= = = = = = == =
ilango sir,
I have taken positional short in BN at 9550, now covered 50 % at 9380.
-arpit345
significant additons in 5300 Call..and 5400 call..total 56L and 64L..and significant buildup at 5200 put...close to 80l
Waiting to see your name on the Forbes list
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