Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
-
5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ...
41 comments:
Sethu - Read your last post. Very sane words. "it vanishes"
I stick to my VIX upper value as my TSL.
can i go short here...
can i go short here in nifty
have to think twice about shorts as we are way ahead of hema and VAH
@Ilango sir
Reposting
--------------------
Even though market has moved higher & PCR is more than 1.30, its still an options heavy market.
What's interesting is, for Third day running the Single stock option contracts on the FII front are increasing dramatically. FIIs buying $190 mn on Index Options to go with a buy figure of $85 mn on Stock Futures. Despite the market rallying yesterday it was noticed that the value of Futures transactions increased by Rs 1581 crore, but again the Options market dominated, with the value of Options transactions increasing by Rs 3682 crore.
Currently:
5300CE (Rs. 25.5)< 4700PE (Rs. 27)
5400CE (Rs. 9.8) = 4400PE (Rs. 9.2)
How to interpret this data??
Also retail data to be out in the US tonite which could be bad. Should we be cautious at this stage?
@ Mona,
There could be a shallow correction, possibly upto 5090-5095. No weakness is seen yet.
@Bhavesh,
for today it has resistance at 495
tnx..llango
Rajgopal sir what news are u expecting in abanoffshore?
Hai everyone
Nifty hourly chart Fibonacci extension shows a target of 5180. If nifty manages to close above the resistance line mentioned in this chart 5180 is possible.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/nifty-fibo-levels-with-extension.html
Thank you
@Sethuji
Thanks sir, u gave me strength and yesterday i went long above 4983, and booked today
@5097.
Thanks
@ manni,
I am not an expert on OI data - don't follow them but follow some of our experts in this blog.
My simple reading of it is : They are building a boundary @ 4700 to 5300. These figures can change when certain technical levels are breached.
A combined reading gives you a tradeable plan.
sir should we exit from intra shorts .....
regards
vikram
@bhavesh.
it is as per the downward trendline connecting 609-594-509
Thanks for the reply sir...will wait till picture becomes more clear before initiating a trade
@all
as i said in the morning, watch put OI in 5100 put, in morning at 9.40 chg in OI its 9% now its 36%, so put writers seems confident atleast as off now, for nifty holding 5060-70, avg trading price till 12:15 p.m. is 88 rs..so max of writing happen at the opening hours..
for upsides watch PCR below improving..
5000 - 1.94
5100 - 0.52
Ilango sir, i exited my longs near 5120 NS( to trade only as
i did with single lot). U gave 5125-5130 is resistance so can i
again take longs near 5085-90 or at break of 5130??Plz suggest
Thanks
@ Vikram,
I do not see any weakness yet. Even if it falls upto 5080, it won't dent the daily TA.
You trade as per Risk - reward expected. If shorted, keep it light, strict SL 5125 and book out at 5090 zone.
@llango....same ques.. bizagra has asked...
m also waitin fo yo rply...
Thanx a lot sir
i would do the same
regards
vikram
@Manni,
I am no expert on Options but having tracked them for more than 6 months all I can say is that Options reflect the "current state" of the market. As of yesterday there were 58L CALLS and 21L PUTS - which implies that 5100 would be a difficult level to cross. But after the gap up this morning, 12L new puts are written @5100 - signalling some shorts covered & aggressive longs have probably entered the market. Rahul Arora is giving data based on previous day where its true that Options transactions were higher than futures transactions. Even I have started putting data on my poor man's blog. My best conclusion is Options are mostly "Lagging Indicators" and only a few times leading indicators.
The price of options is based on something called "Implied Volatility" - in simple terms what market participants "think" of future direction of the market. So please don't just go by the price.
Please don't get biased by options data on your intraday trade because I believe the options data is manipulated by market makers - I have no "proof" but lots of "empirical data" based on observations on big reversal days.
Regards,
Girish
@bizagra,
Nice trade.
-- gd
ilango sir where u think nifty could go today
@Girish
Thanks for the clarification. I think the same thing happened last time also when market recovered from Feb low. Moreover option writers will make more money writing puts at the moment.
RG,
Can you tell me what is the high low for wipro according to your btst system. i am long 632 from 25/5. it is struggling to move yup.
test
Hello Everyone,
How do I interpret OI data in Options? what exactly it means? Can someone provide info on this?
@Rama
* If volume is relatively high while the market is going up and remains relatively low during corrections, the inference is that the market is in a strong uptrend, which should continue.
* If volume is high while the market is going down and relatively light during upward retracements, then the market is weak with a continuing downward trend likely.
* If both open interest and prices are increasing, then new buyers are being brought into the market with a strong technical picture unfolding. Expect the uptrend to continue.
* If on the other hand, open interest is increasing while prices decline, short sellers have the upper hand in a technically weak market. As open interest is growing while prices decline, buyers are obviously the more aggressive party.
* In the event of open interest declining while prices are also slipping, liquidation by long positions is the implication, therefore suggesting a technically strong market overall. In other words, the market is strong as open interest declining suggests no new aggressive shorts, as this would entail an increase in open interest.
* When open interest is declining and prices are increasing, short covering is the most likely cause suggesting that overall the market is weak - i.e. attracting new buyers would be required for a technically strong market and consequently open interest would rise.
For More Info:
http://content.icicidirect.com/ULFiles/UploadFile_200392312540.asp?icicicode=type%20symbol
@Rama,
Some links explaining Open Interest and how to interpret price movement based on Open Interest.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/04/060904.asp
http://www.tradingpicks.com/open_interest.htm
Thanks a lot folks, this is such a great place to learn..
Hai everyone
Some asian markets are also showing some strength for example hangseng which has been in down trend for sometime now is trading above it's 20 day moving average. So if these markets show strength this might help nifty to continue its upward journey.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/hang-seng-trading-above-20-day-moving.html
thank you
My Critic just said:
There is negative divergences in Hour Charts as well as 5 minute charts.
Those who wish to take a high risk (aggressive) trade, may short here keeping a SL of 25 to 35 points.
I prefer to wait for some weakness by a close below Day High ema.
I see Nifty's move as a strong uptrend.Also Nifty made a 3 wave downmove till 4786 with +ve divergences in Oscillators towards the end.After that Nifty has reversed very strongly as per the price action now.So I think Nifty has put inplace intermediate bottom and undergoing a strong upmove unlike we have seen in past many months.With EGOM on Oil price deregulation this weekend,Oil& Gas stocks are trading firmly above their ema's,I see very much a possibilty that we would breakout towards 5400-5500 next week,if anything even slightly postive comes out of it.
Any comments?
Open Interest Demystified Read the following Article
http://www.brameshtechanalysis.com/index.php/2010/06/nifty-open-interest/
sir
hope tisco is direction to shorters
sir yt should be the target for this short?
Yes..Manu,
Tisco is the culprit.
Friends
just watch YesBank calloption 290 buyers and sellers....
I think it is worth to buy......?
-arpit
sir what is your opinion about this divergence????
is it good enough???like the ones u put up???
sir
its a trap..
dnt shrt tisco..chck ur chart..
NEW POST DONE.
Yes..manu. I am off stocks.
Post a Comment