EW: a sharp rise indicating a maturing of short term.(It could also be a powerful 3rd of 3rd but the "OB" short term suggests doubts here)
TA: High ema-Hour @ 5279 (Day's low)- only a break of which confirms some weakness.
High ema (Day): 5251 - a first minor support.(If no new highs are made). Also Hr low ema is @ 5255 presently. It may rise too.
VAH: 5235: As long as Nifty is above this, your short trades are risky. So play by the earlier established resistances(5305-5340) and supports (5235-5245)
59 comments:
Good morning sir & friends !!
Nifty has had a sharp run since last 8 days, therefore I would be trading light (specially on the long side) till this expiry is over. Will enter shorts if NF gives 5300+ with a SL of 5330 eod as I feel we can see some profit booking coming before the expiry.
Will make fresh positions on thursday evening.
@ sir
since ril is at resistance of 1085, i think one can nifty 5300 puts for 15 points profits. Also short position in ril@stop 1102 with ??? stoploss can be a good startegy
hi ilango
pls open price
An alternative plan must also be ready:
If Nifty is able to hold above Day's pivot (5256) and 5265 ( a rising Hr Low ema), it may attempt 5340 zone.
Open: 5279.40 (& low too)
@wealth creator
5200PE currently has the highest OI (nearly 90lacs) suggests expiry above 5200.
I guess 5400puts will be better & safe bet near 5310-20 NF.
@ wealthcreator,
RIL resistance is @ 1095-1100. I am sure with such an event it will easily reach there.(already 1089).
The next major resistance for it is 1135. That will be a big break out.
thanks for the clarity. I am trying to learn things. Thanks for support
Elango Sir
I am holding RIL 1100 CALL @ 13.50.
Shall I hold it today, expecting RIL cross 1100.
Kindly guide me.
Today we are witnessing broader market participation.
Many midcaps have started moving
Rather than shorting one should look to enter this
market at dips.
For intraday long entry planned near 5255-60 with
a stop @ 5240(Breakout zone)
@Ilangao,
Got your Logic Ilango regarding the expiry nearing confusion I sometimes be in...Quite sensible ...but sometimes they do profit bookings in the same series...so, is there any way this can be predicted ? Like if profit booking would occur or not in any series ? through some option data or somethng ? Because I believe the FII's must be hedging their positions through Options as well...
@ankur,
Just a guess based on previous months action. 5380 mon/tue and then profit booking. Why ? I see they are working on 5200/5300 puts today - 8L and 4L added. FIIs added another 1000 Cr yesterday in futures.So why would they start booking profits today ?
-- gd
Akin to ICICI yesterday, today or soon there cud be news on DENA Bank - but to BUY since being taken over by .... Please do not fall prey. The bank being taken over is DANA ...Bank in ex-USSR. NOT DENA BANK.
(if u r an hyena, just pick up a few now and wait for the rumour)
@ Ankurbhatt,
To get an idea of "Profit booking": You may have to use the regular TA with possible divergences.
Profit booking lasts only half a day or so and the "losing hands" rush in to cover their positions.
There will be exceptions when "delivery based buying or selling" takes place. For this , you may need to monitor FII figures (Under market statistics - money control link is given).
= = = == = == = = = = = = = = = =
Intra charts reaching OS and if 5279 is not broken, it could reverse up. In such a case, look at the quality of reversal - bounce means , it will limit to a retracement. Day's high becomes S&R)
= = = == = = = === = == = = = == =
@Golfdude,
I am not saying that they would do it today...but sometimes...I have seen a sharp fall after a big rise and somehow it is very confusing to me to understand that sometimes they do book and sometimes they roll over...I really don't understand the exact mechanism of rolling over either...I believe this months future contracts will expire or will be covered if no action taken...in that case it is sensible that they will not sell the futures contracts and related equity holdings...in cash and futures...If you could please throw some light on this cuz every expiry brings confusion with it to me...Thanks in advance...
@ankur,
i am in the same boat. Expiry and OI information ( without knowing the split of longs/shorts ) is anybody's guess. Best is to do what ilango sir does - let the trend and EMAs tell you what is going on. I try to guess intraday by seeing put/call ratio. For example, today they have added 8L puts in 5200 and 5L in 5300. Shows somebody ( FIIs ) want it up.
-- gd
the nifty horuly is moving on a sharply rising
trendline which will be violated below 5288 this
hour. upper limit is 5340 lower limit is 5245
I am updating the TT & 9-rsi and it is in buy mode..!
so, it should not move below 5288 now
@Golfdude,
I think then it's best to not get into the expiry stuff altogether and concentrate on the major trend and any trendline breakge/ channel breakage in the main trend cuz...you never know what's gonna happen next day...
:) Thanks Ilango..Golfdude..
Hai everyone
When a stock or index consolidates in a trading range or in a pattern. The effectiveness of the price movement out of the consolidation increases with time.
If the consolidation goes on for months and years the break out or break down can be huge. Reliance industries has been consolidation for nearly an year. Will it break this time. I have shown the range in candlestick chart and line chart.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/reliance-industries-long-consolidation.html
Thank you
@ Manojjag - agree with your views.
+ve news expected from RIL’s AGM it may disappoint as nothing new is likely to come out of the agm as has happened many a times in the past.
Monthly FIBO R2 is 5328 and Cam monthly breakout is 5341 - this will be my SL positionally Intra is 5318/20.. ofcourse Sir has given alternatives...and market is supreme
regards
bought nifty 5400 put @ 119.50 SL 115 Target 130
daily 9-rsi has reached overbought territory
Has RIL AGM has commenced and "Mukesh" has started his speech..??
Not as yet
about to start now
started Mukesh speaking
@all
CNBC awaz LIVE AGM
kk
booked 5400 put @ 128
Sir,
below is the Link of NDTV
http://www.ndtv.com/news/videos/video_live.php?id=LIVE_BGPROFIT&live=t
@Ilango, Golfdude,
From last two days in 5 min intraday charts, I see many gap up candles appearing and then going below the previous candle's low...it's very unusual and very surprising to see that somthing like this can happen,,,,Buying and selling altogether and both with equal vigour...?? Isn't it strange for yu guys / Or Is it something related yahoo charts not working properly.. ? :)
Watch "Euro Live" and Nifty has done similar moves.
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/ForexCharts/eurusd.php
Candles on lower time charts are tough to interpret. I look at candle patterns on daily only.
-- gd
"Wish market rejects bhai's plans today - Short @ 1085.SL ? What's that?
June 18, 2010 9:43 AM"
It has reached 1072. Nice conveyance money. Must listen to intution. Now it says go LONG.
(i did not short).
But, this behaviour is recent Golfdude... Never saw somthing like that earlier.... Never in my life... :)
@aLL,
A/D Breadth falling ...bulls be cautious....That's a red sign...
gd,
will it be possible to share some on rsi and macd
studies done for
past data.??
ilango sir can i sell nifty now
@Ilango sir, i m moving my sl to days high.
@piyush,
Dont have it. I had a spreadsheet of points and lost the file by accident. I will try to create one sometime soon.
-- gd
5290 NS would be an agressive stop for shorts
Hai everyone.
As ilango sir told earlier euro has helped both dow jones and nifty to go higher. Euro is right now trading near 1.24. and will face resistance and selling pressure at 1.26. If euro starts to go down us markets will go down with it. But right now everything looks ok
The falling wedge pattern has helped euro to go higher. I am posting the euro chart here.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/eur-vs-usd-falling-wedge-updated.html
Thank you
RIL AGM----damb squib
ilango j i had short nifty at 5375 please give sl for my short
RIL can't use gas for power project except captive plant until 2022.
@ rahul
Dont hesitate to short@5375 sl 5400 when it come
kk
sorry i had short at 5275
Trade the 25-35 points from the highs.
No major weaknesses yet seen.
OR Trail it as the -ve div is getting confirmed in Hour charts.
NEW post in a minute.
Thank you Mr.Rajagopal booked profit in RIL initiated short at 1082
Elango Sir
RIL AGM speach over...
Will there be any negative move in Nifty from now ?
Booked Nifty Future short at 5263 initiated at 5290. Thank you Sir for your analysis
Booked Nifty future short at 5263 initiated at 5290. Thank you for analysis.
can somebody confirm the level to enter long again in RIL. I had exited at 1079 entered at 984.
regards
NEW POST DONE
Elango sir i had long in tatasteel.Pls tell me the tatasteel levels
what means new post done
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