Thursday, June 10, 2010

Nifty breaks out for the 2nd time. (First to 5148)

Post your best narration for each chart in a precise manner,
I will paste them above each chart the best one.
Shouldn't be difficult..Let your imagination take wings..!

********************************************************************
Everyone's view points are quite synchronised. Hard to choose from.

Assotz: break-out of the falling channel as well as closing above 20 sma..signaling momentum towards making new higher highs
Alpesh: nifty journey fromm 5400 to 4786 clear its " A" wave now "B " wave unfold. Today nifty menage to close abv 20 SMA. Now support 5035-5050 hold for upmove and
if clear resistance 5100-5120 this rally continue...
MOK:Corrective Red A B C is done, Blue A extends to B [4786 5150] may form Blue Alt B short, and then a long fall to C lower than A. 5sma has crossed above 20sma bullish cross. Widening wedge with HigherHigh LowerLow formation breaking out of the longer wedge upward.
MOK: Price channel has maintained till recently when it brokeout upward, forming 3rd leg of the price channel, while volume kept forming negative divergence. Price has broken out of moving avg. The abcde motive downward wave has shifted to corrective a stetching to b and move up on c. Larger Xab may move downward to c.
Alpesh: *grey: it has complete "a" & "b" of the "2/B" and started the " c " from low of "4937" . if it hold 5055 and clear the resistance 5135 , it can strech up to "5200-5230".
* red : After the "X" wave at "5213", "a" wave fell to 4786 and a "b" wave completed @ 5135
now not clear resis. 5135 and also not hold support 5055 it may be go deeper fall
MOK: The price channel has been moving downward and broke out to second upward channel. Both channel junction bringing it to triangle, while faster ma is above slower ma, giving a bias to upward breakout of triangle.

25 comments:

Anil said...

@illango sir,

if you spend a few minutes at my analysis,
plz visit

http://market-nirvana.blogspot.com/

Today in morning around 9:51 i posted, and seeing nifty strength it seemed it will try to fill the gap...

Your views..must required..

wormwood34 said...

hello ilango..with dow at +168 and the hope that it will sustain..5135 if conquered tommorrow...what will be the next target trajectory....thanks in advance for the reply..

wormwood34 said...

@anil
thanks for the charts posted at your blog....

rochak parekh said...

DOW 250+
hum to bhari barsaat mei sukhe rah gaye
having neutral positions as of now
but
thinking about the people having PUTS and shorts
may god bless them
and again HATS OFF to i lango sir
once i read some where
TOO MUCH ANALYSIS LEADS U NO WHERE
that s what happened with me
I WUD REQUEST I LANGO SIR
to kindly advise when to enter long side now
and wud wait on sidelines for an opportunity to enter longs

Mr GG said...

Hi Ilango - thanks to the tech table and your views I covered my shorts.

And here we are with DOW up 250 points :)

Sunny said...

HI ILANGO SIR,
1st i dil se salam u for yr TA in nifty .
nifty is really dance in yr tune. and also
yr vision to see it very good amazing sir.
sir kindly request to u plz send me nifty
fur 5 min data and sbin ,icici bank ,hdfcbank,
axis bank and ril exel sheet at akanparia@yahoo.com
thx for yr kindly suggestion
regards,
alpesh

Mr GG said...

Chart 1: Daily
In a corrective A-B-C, 'b' of A done yesterday.Bigger 'B' to follow
next week.

Chart 2: Hourly
Buy dips. Targetting 5250 in 2-3 days.

mynac said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
mynac said...

Nifty FNO data suggests its journey towards 5300.Addition of 16.60 lac in 5000 PE indicates the lower band support and 4.33 lac writing in 5300 CE suggests the possible resistance.
This is the first impression,so Bears...it is never too late to mend... and Bulls keep in a mind that never a rose without thorns. It wont be easy journey because Nifty is carrying 3.07 Cr.O.I.The short covering will decide Nifty's destination and time for possible targets.
All N all everyone would like the greenery everywhere tomorrow.

A J said...

@manu bhai
So finally you fell into my "lassi trap".Thanks ...I will wait for your mail over the weekend
will search google..what should I search?..."pair trading" "beta trading" or "spread trading"?
@Rajapaji
need weekend EW class from Illango?Well try the above with him
I dont know whether he is interested in MO(n)K but....
As doctor saheb said in his "morning prescription"
"lay a time tested trap
OLD MONK
it should work"
@doctor saheb
ManshiRT link in Rajandran's blog (http://www.marketcalls.in/) is not available...you can as him for details...another friendly guy

assortZ said...

Chart-1

break-out of the falling channel as well as closing above 20 sma..signaling momentum towards making new higher highs

chart-3

good comeback from "infection point" discussed early this week...5200 next resistance in the upward channel to be tested

sriganeshh said...

wld like to take contrary view ..

nifty may touch 5100 or 5120 as the chart says where the weekly profit booking may start & may close somewhere around 5034 or 5035.
Incidentally if it happens, then i think H&S pattern become valid (please pattern analyst, see whether this is right) with right neck forming...nifty may touch low of 4980 again.

sriganeshh said...

not right neck...it shld be right shoulder

A J said...

@Sri Sri Sriganeshh
Hi..how are you...what's the reason for the patchy appearance off lately?
Hope all is well..
Can you tell which book is the best for value investing?
Hope you got some info about nehru place from that site
I thought you relied more on fundamentals...technicals new found love ?
I have restarted SAR levels ...so you can't say that there is any change in "pattern" of my blog!!
he he :))
Good luck cheers

sriganeshh said...

@Anuj
Patchy appearance is due to work load.
Value investing - "The Intelligent Investor" by benjamin graham.
Fundamentals is core in trading whereas ilango sir created interest in learning TA also.

Your suzlon call may come true it seems.

best

A J said...

@sri
thanks...I remember that you mentioned that before as well
Suzlon call may come true!!....nice joke :))
@rm
even sri is waiting for -30 (minus 30 )level...he is more of a fundamental guy
so you have both fundamental and technicals aligned in same direction
so you have more reasons to wait patiently without getting perturbed by this up move!!

bizagra said...

Ilango sir.wht i understood from yr first two charts is..we
We hav 2scenarios..
1) we had abcxabc fall from 5400 ad we are in second b up.
2) we had 5 wave down move then abc reet. Going on.we r in c up after which
Big third will start in 5 waves.
Thx

Unknown said...

Stating again - 5250-70 max 5320-40 from which point
we reverse for 4800

Sunny said...

hi ilango sir
From yr chart
1) nifty journey fromm 5400 to 4786 clear its " A"
wave now "B " wave unfold. Today nifty menage to close
abv 20 SMA. Now support 5035-5050 hold for upmove and
if clear resistance 5100-5120 this rally continue...
2)Two ways for " nifty future" :
* grey: it has complete "a" & "b" of the "2/B" and
started the " c " from low of "4937" . if it hold
5055 and clear the resistance 5135 , it can strech
up to "5200-5230".
* red : After the "X" wave at "5213", "a" wave
fell to 4786 and a "b" wave completed @ 5135
now not clear resis. 5135 and also not hold support
5055 it may be go deeper fall
regards,
alpesh

Sunny said...

another senerio :
now " 5135 " is key resis.if clear then upmove
conti. up to "5200-5230" if fell to clear "5135"
then now earlyer support come to '5055" if this
hold rally conti. up to "5200-5230"
if "5055" support break then mkt go to deeper fall
regard ,
alpesh

mo h said...

Not yet familiar with EW, but let me try,
========================================
Chart 1 Daily
Corrective Red A B C is done, Blue A extends to B [4786 5150] may form Blue Alt B short, and then a long fall to C lower than A. 5sma has crossed above 20sma bullish cross. Widening wedge with HigherHigh LowerLow formation breaking out of the longer wedge upward.

Chart 2 Hourly
Price channel has maintained till recently when it brokeout upward, forming 3rd leg of the price channel, while volume kept forming negative divergence. Price has broken out of moving avg. The abcde motive downward wave has shifted to corrective a stetching to b and move up on c. Larger Xab may move downward to c.

Chart 3 5minutes
The price channel has been moving downward and broke out to second upward channel. Both channel junction bringing it to triangle, while faster ma is above slower ma, giving a bias to upward breakout of triangle.

Short term bias is Up till B peaks, with medium to longterm bias showing towards Down till C is completed.
====================================
ahh, i attempted ... have to start somewhere on Alphabets, whatever be the result :)
Its a novel venture sir. thanks.

narasing said...

@iLango Sir,
Chart 1 : The big A is done from 5400 to 4786.
One path indicates B is done by a move from 4786 to 5147. However alternate path seems to be playing now, where B is not yet done which ( marked as alt.B) might lead to 5200+. The alt.B to be confirmed incase Nifty scales the previous high of 5147.

C will unfold after confirmation of B as done.

Local said...

Wow, so many talking EW today! I think Ilango may have started a 3rd wave interest in ew.:)

@sriganeshh @ mynac, I agree with you. After a series of falls, the rise is going to be challenged and give us a few sharp falls. It might even be forming a widening wedge base from 5120+ down again to 4860 or so.

Neha said...

@ Ilango Sir,

Sir I hv made an attempt to count this wave EW wise... I wanted u to check whether
the count is rite or not..may I hv ur email ID??

Regards,
Neha

mo h said...

@ neha

sirs mail ID is on the right panel

vanilango at gmail.com

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