- The Fibonacci retrace levels for the upmove from 4675 to 5399, along with Moving Averages 20,50 ema,200dma and the Channel bottom Trendline support will define the movement for Positional play.They should be kept in mind as supports and resistances.
- Nifty can get support near 200dema and the 61.8% fibo. Level of 4950-60.Short term down move can end near this level of 4950-60.
- If Nifty retraces back from this support ,it can meet a significant resistance at 5125-5150 levels .This level is 38.2% retrace level of the upmove , a recent gap area (see vol.profile),likely area of 20 & 50 dema aligning themselves there next week and a possible 50 % retrace area of current downmove (from 5342) if it ends near to 4950.A new down move can start from this level of 5125-5150.
- The positional SAR remains 5250 level which is the April month settlement price(5254) also it is importantly the Highest Volume area in Weekly Volume Profile.Only a close above this level will change the series dynamics to bullish.
- My personal bias remains bearish with Wishful thinking of Nifty trading below 200 dma ,nearer to the Channel support Trendline area of 4800 levels sometime during May series settlement or early next month.
- A Picture is worth thousand words ,this picture (Nifty chart) may be worth some hundred thousands rupees so cautiously make it serve the needful.
With warm regards,
AAR VEE
10 comments:
Dear AAR VEE
Well done.
Thanks for your analysis.
thanks AAR VEE for ur analysis.as usual excellent
Dear AAR VEE,
The 5th point"My personal bias...." is interesting.
On 26th Feb ( After Feb series expiry as it was on 25th Feb that Month)Fut Nifty gave a convincing close above 4900 and closed at 4930 then.
On the next trading day (March 2nd) Nifty Fut.opened at 4979 and after touching 4967 gave a close at 5022.80.
Since 2nd March up to date Nifty Fut.has never traded below 4967 ,and surprisingly 4967 is Nifty Fut's almost 200 DMA today.
For March 2010 series the entire roll over was almost between just 50 points then i.e.4830-4880 and at that time was discussed a lot.
Yesterday Nifty Fut.gave a low of 4976 and then traded above 5000 most of the period.
I have hopes for Nifty even up to 4940-4930 in worst scenario.
Bounce back is due and expected at least up to 5200.Let us see,whether global clues shall help us or not.
Good Night.
Good one Arvee!
I've posted my analysis as well. We may see a low of 4935 tomorrow / tue
hi RV,
will note down the levels, wow this is great. you make things look easy.
thanks.
@ Ilango sir,
Thanks sir, Hope you read my email,
@ mynac,
you just walked us thro a quarter.
You are presenting kind of a marketprofile in a different format ..
thanks.
hi gautam,
read the manthan, will see the way2 soon.
good night
@Mynac, as mentioned by dear mok, the way you view the market, is amazing my friend :) :)
@GB, though you made your blog and googlegroup, 'invite only', I wish and hope that you continue with your inputs here, among us.
good AAR VEE this chart is very usefull for positoinal trade
Tclick - email me at gautam108@gmail.com
ill add u
Hi Gautam,
Would you pls add me as well..... I am interested to be part of your blog as well.
My email id is ram.nifty@gmail.com
Ram
@Aarvee,
Thx for the post. If you used ChartNexus to draw the chart, how does one get 200DMA in chart nexus ?I could find only 10,20,50d ma.
gd
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