Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Nifty PreMarket View.

An exchange with a reader worth sharing with all.
Dear Ilango,

im writing this mail to you as today im very frustrated with my trade ,below I'm explaining how my trade goes in detail, and i just want to know where i should have booked my niftyfut.
1. shorted 4 nifty at 5182 on friday.
2. 1st booked at 5135, 2nd booked at the 5100 and 3rd at the end of the day.
3. now i left with only 1 nifty, on monday i saw the level of fut 4960, and finally closed my short at 5044. i saw my profit wiping off. plz suggest me where should i had my trailing stoploss as i dont want to book it early which take me out of trade and at the same time i do not want to give back my profits which happened today,
4. plz guide me how should i hve gone with this trade.
Thanks.
*******************************************************
The reply:
If you had a plan, then the 1st target would have been 5135 on friday. I, too, suggested but advised to reshort on bounce upto 5155+. It bounced briefly to 5152 and fell. If you were not able to sell at the bounce, resell at the break of 5135.

The next target is the 200sma- talked about widely by almost everyone - 4975.

You have to have these levels handy and if you monitor any charts, then see whether they are "OS" at such levels, then Buy.

The intraday chart would show you a slow fall upto 4966 from the open and if a resistance line was drawn, it would have given a break out @ 4980-4985. That could have been a trailing SL in an aggressive way.

These were all only "Part booking" and one could have either got back their selling or sell tomorrow near resistance 5100-5135, if we get. Nifty is still trading below 5, 10, 20 sma. Trend is clearly down.

Another way to book profits is to see how far it has come away from the recent highs or lows- this may not work all the time but it is a reasonable one.

Eg: @ 5135, Nifty was only 78 points away from the recent high of 5213 - Not a compelling one to liquidate.
@ 5000 , it is 213 points from that high of 5213 - OK.
@ 4975, it is 238 points from the high of 5213, a bit compelling.

We also need to have the previous 12 months period's ranges:
From 4726, it fell to 4353 = 373 points
From 5182 , it fell to 4539 = 643 points
From 5311, it fell to 4675 = 636 points.

So what we have so far is much lesser than the earlier drops and this drop is owing to week & monthly sell signals.

30 comments:

San said...

Good morning ilango sir and blogmates

I am posting nifty daily chart here.
nifty is forming a DESCENDING BROADENING WEDGE. This pattern
usually breaks on the upside. But broadening pattern in general
are bearish. So lets wait for the break out on either side.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/05/descending-broadening-wedge-in-nifty.html

thank you

Paresh said...

Nifty could attempt to breach 5100 today but most probably will settle close to 5000!

assortZ said...

good morning all

r m said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir & classmates.

P.S. Hi Rajagopal, you see, i am getting quite verbose. :)

sryasdmurali said...

GM Elango sir and All Dears..

Nifty expecting gap down opening.

Please provide technicals and guide me when to go short today or buy nifty levels.

Sukanya said...

gm all. @rm, i liked your word 'class mates' :)

Prabhakar said...

Good morning Ilango Sir and all
=======
Sir,
I could not resell NF yesterday. Please advice today what level should I resell?
Thank you
=======

sanju said...

good morning ilango sir and all blogmates

sir,

please give an brief idea about how to use these lables

trade: 4925 << 4990/5010... 5070/5085 >>5135

u.k.Raj said...

Good Morning to ALL

satheesh said...

Good morning Ilango sir and all

Can you give the VAH, POC and VAL values?

Niftybaaz said...

Gm all Blogmates and Illango ji

Jayesh Bhope said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jayesh Bhope said...

Dear Ilango,
Greetings! I am back to trading after a long abroad trip. Although, I was a silent observer of this great learning place, I did not trade all these days (months).

I had followed many so called teachers in this field earlier. They always used to stress about refraining from reading many blogs/websites/tv channels. But it is after visiting yr blog, that w/o any such direct advise from you... my visits to other blogs/data sources have almost been eradicated and now just visiting this place leaves one contented. My hearty congrats to you for all the selfless efforts putin.

I now wish to engage actively in the interactions here with my limited knowhow. Please do bless me. May I also find kind support of other mates, as always, they do.

May God Bless you abundantly!

Bhope

GIRESH TIILWAANI said...

GOOD MORNING ALL....

Babu said...

I think problem started again ( slow) Main blog shows 14 messages but we have only 9 messages

INDITRADER said...

Good Morning Illango sir & all blogmates.

KGovind said...

Sir

Good morning to all.

What is the ORB value for nifty future today. I did not see nifty future trading at 5050+. So is a high of 5055.55 and low of 5029.10 correct ?

kris said...

GOOD MORNING SIR AND DEAR BLOGMATES

Ilango said...

@ Jayesh Bhope,

Welcome to "The learning Centre" where everyone shares and progresses and I am sure you will too.

@ Sanju,

That is a likely trading range as well as the break out targets. They are not exact places the supports & resistances are met but they are "close about".

Being in downtrend, you will do well to initiate shorts above 5060 to 5100 region. The "Heavy selling" by FIIs have resumed yesterday after their 1st week "Selling".

Strong money moves the markets and nothing else will matter in the short term.

rochak parekh said...

hey gautam, the wonder DATING boy,
are u there

Ilango said...

@ KGovind,

The following are NF open, High, Low so far.

5041.00 5044.50 5029.50

sanju said...

thank you ilango sir, got it

Prabhakar said...

Now I am able to watch 19/19 postings.

LAKHAN JADEJA said...

Good Morning Ilango sir

Rajagopal said...

GM sir.
rm Sir.(it's my pleasure to spoil you).

Have a great day.

Ankurbbhatt said...

Hi !! Looks to me that NIFTY is preparing a platform to slide towards 4986. Comments please...

Local said...

I think it's trying to reach 4850 fast.:)

Ankurbbhatt said...

yes....that's the ultimate target 4820 I think...but I think next month....

Jayesh Bhope said...

Dear Ilango,
I do not have any positions, as of now. Do I initiate a intraday Long near 5000-5010 or wait for 5070-80 to create conservative shorts. Pls advise, as "Well begun is half done!"

Ilango said...

NEW POST DONE

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