4786 + 182 = 4968 (1st target)
4786 + 226 = 5012 (2nd target)
Anything beyond 5012 should alert us to a larger pull back as the "Short term bullish scenario" shown in the 2nd chart.
This chart suggests of the first wave down ending as a "leading diagonal" with overlapping five waves and Nifty may have started on the 2nd wave(Corrective up) having few retracements possibilities:
5400 to 4786 = 614 points. 38% @ 5019; 50% @ 5093 ; 61.8% @ 5166.
This view would also harmonize with the "OS" daily as well as weekly TA.
A stay above 4873 and a weekly close above 4940 is all "Bulls should hope for(28th May)". And a monthly close below 4855 is what the "Bears should aim for(31st May)".
17 comments:
Bull= if be >4873, wC >4940 28.5.2010
Bear= mC <4855 31.5.2010
yes sir,
thanks
Sir - Mail.
Please keep people trying to ride the bulls to tame the bears in mind.
Another very interesting day ahead.
In equities 10 want to go north 17 South - rest waiting at the counters.
12 Futures are down with "Weakening""Str..ning" OI (no Strong/Weak category),6 say UP but with clear "Weakening" OI. Rest are indecisive.
Wish your UPS is fully charges - I can hear voices already !!!
something....may be my instinct..is telling me that tom we can close above 4950 and in the first week of june or so we can move to 5300 odd lvls...
hi wormwood,
touchwood
:)
Ilango sir
I am new to the forum and is trying to understand fundamental analysis from the posts made by a lot of masters. I have been reading your posts for some time.Please comment on SAR system of trade in nifty and banknifty and is it a profitable system to trade for the long term.I have lost substantial amount of money in day trading--searching a way to get out of debts
Regards
FII sell 166
DII buy 65
sir cn u plz update tisco as took longs in it..
bad results already discounted
Dear all Good Evening
This is good....;\
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2010/05/20/2905304.htm
Cheers!!!
Tryin2trade..
amazing..but frm whr will they get money
and hw he loss one million dollar
:))
Hi S,
If you want to get out of debts... learn and practice and
then again learn and practice.
Stock trading is more about YOU rather than fundamentals or
technicals.
Learn new techniques and keep practicing.
There are thousands of technical trading systems. Explore.
I have done so exactly.
Regards and wish you luck.
Mithil
Nifty has not yet bottomed out and detour towards 4820 is
highly expected.
Todays rally was on the back of divergence on RSI.
However, bullish divergence gives me goosebumps as they
are characteristics of a downtrend. Check out for yourself.
A negative reversal signal is generated on Nifty today
with a target of 4820 as per daily charts. The signal
would be negated on a eod close above 4954.
Market not yet bottomed out, however, remember what i posted
yesterday. "As long as 4752 is defended on a weekly basis
and 4875 on monthly basis, we are most likely to rally
towards 5300".
As per ilango sir's system, a buy call is generated today
where nifty closed above 5 day Low EMA.
I will be eager to take short positions again tommorrow.
Cheers
Mithil
@ s,
SAR is not very useful for day trading on a budget unless 1. the market is firmly in a trend and 2. You're sure about the direction.
You can lose money in SAR too, esp if Nifty is in correction. For eg., for the last *one year* Nifty has been in a corrective - if you look at the SAR for today, you'll need to make a minimum of 20 trades (10 in each direction) without much profit.
But that said, if you follow SAR with a bigger budget to cover M2M (in daily charts) over a period of time you'll strike gold.:)
Hi All,
I would like to know what is your view for TATA STEEL tomorrow...Results has came out and i have give the numbers for you to read easily,
Standalone Result (Annual Comparison)
Total income 25,875 Cr (FY10) - 24,624 Cr (FY09)
Net Profit 5,046 Cr (FY10) - 5,201 Cr (FY09)
Quarterly Result (Q4 Comparison)
Total income 7,807 Cr (Mar-10) - 6,547 Cr (Mar-09)
Net Profit 2,162 Cr (Mar-10) - 1,459 Cr (Mar-09)
K7
@s
See the SAR's clarity on a 3-month chart: http://tinyurl.com/39avfzz
And how confusing (and full of commission losses) it is on a 5-day chart:
http://tinyurl.com/36uxj77
The only piece that doesn’t fits the today’s upmove jigsaw is the fact that Rollover to June series was very low,(approx.13 lacs Nifty futures ), compared to 74 lacs yesterday on a down day.Approx 50 lacs Futures remain to be rolled over for an average rollover equaling May series .So, another downmove waiting ??
The importance of 4940-60 zone-
4938 is 7dema
4940 is weekly low ema
4942 is High vol area in 5D Vol. profile.
4943 is pivot R1
4946 is the 2D high
4948 is the falling wedge resistance
4951 is 61.8% retrace of 4675-5400
4960 is day high ema
Todays Vol .profile show the highest volumes in day low ema region of 4875 which will be tommorow’s pivot S1.It may provide support tomorrow below Pivot and 200dema of 4900 region.
I take a bet on aggressive shorting in the area of 4940-60 with a s/l above R2 4969.
@ yoda,
this is exactly what makes your presentations and observations special, the practical aspect, depth of thoughts, labtest results ...
plz continue to present views, wont want you to take off another long break ...
:)
@ RV, you looked at and pried out the 50L, this acute analysis helps us all, wish to see your dissections more often.
Between xx38 and xx60 each number is tagged now ...
:)
Thanks both...
@mok,
ty, you're very encouraging. I only vanish when I'm experimenting so that I don't lose focus.:)
It may sound simple, but I had to lose a lot of money to figure out how SAR can be used profitably. Like everyone used it for daytrading when its at it's least helpful. But then, you can use macd or any indicator long-term with equal success.
This is where paper-trading patiently wins hands-down when you're trying a new system. Do a few weeks of hypothetical trades when you're trying a new system (or systems as Mythil suggested), s, because you don't want to lose capital unnecessarily.
Even just following someone else's 'perfect' system can wipe you out financially if you don't understand it.
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