After having spent more than an hour @ 4826-4855, NF breaks out with volume (5-minute time cycle).. The spike failed as it fell below 4833.(the low of the bull candle).
The failed Spike:
Retracement strategy, a must for traders.
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor...
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ... -
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor...
103 comments:
sir
if possible spare a thought on this
-------------------------------------------------
Sir
on the chart u posted positive divergence starts from bottom at 5000 goes to 4900 than 4850 (5000 to 4900) is not marked. After 4900 there was ema cross at which I took a long next morning it gapped down and more divergence was formed. Then it worked nifty went to 5029.
Do we have to learn EW to trade divergences profitably. I cannot distinguish between why we shud not trade frm 4900 and why 4850.
Ilango was it a false break out
can someone suggest if the below is a good trade to execute
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LbdxA4wohVI/S_prxlc76GI/AAAAAAAACVo/u6czfyF9BZs/s1600/Investment-25may10.jpg
Yes..Powertrade,
It is a false one - meaning "Bulls lack the buying momentum" as shown in the tech table.
I am showing the retracements with the %
5160 - 5342 = 182
5342 - 4985 = 357 (1.96 times of 182)
4985 - 5213 = 228
5213 - 4843 = 370 (1.62 times of 228)
4843 - 5030 = 187
5030 - ???? = ??
target from 5030 having 187 points as the base..
1.23 times @ 4800
1.50 times @ 4750
1.62 times @ 4728
Above is just a wild calculation and no EW is followed...
May go totally wrong.
Hi random the link is of gurunifty.blog.spot.com
May times i have been trapped dont believe him
oh my god
2600% Oi incrs n tisco jun
manu what does this imply
@ TOT-Amit,
Believe in your work..You will be proved totally right.
But why you do the fibo for the rises.. It should be based on the earlier fall, the next fall to be measured..
Thanks a lot sir
Very Tricky Market today.......
nifty spot 4820..bang on tgt..today itself 1 hour earlier...
Ha ha ha enjoy whoever taken 4800 put
llango sir, Now it seems sure that it will retrace below 4675 in faster time
sir,
there is too much gap between May and June series. How roll over be done for shorts of May series....? Will have to short next month at lower level....?
_arpit
@ Powertrade
@ Ilango
yes, it could be that this post could have gotten you in trouble.
but on sheer merit do you think that this can generate some profit. pls evaluate
tx
Thanks iitian i am long in 1k 4800 puts at 32 what would be the target
sir
y 5200 call june series
still on day high whn nifty at its lowet point
amit,
thanks for the levels,
your presentation is always a good one,
i will add to my storage your levels with sir notes.
:)
hi manu,
dow future now ?
powertrade,
if u wish, u should not close today ur position. As per my view, Tomoorw last bull will laso be killed.
Thanks Ilango sir,
I am having very less knowledge of Fibonacci implementation.
can you suggest some reading materal or link.
Hai everyone
Nifty falling wedge false break out. chart updated
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/05/nifty-30-minutes-falling-wedge.html
thank you
manu,
it is simple, people who are shorting nifty, buying headge as 5200 call
@mok
more pain -231 points
but nw it has been discounted.
.if nt thn wht will happn to hangsang 2mmrw
@ Random,
The bull candle with volume was from 4837 to 4853.30 - So anyone taking a long trade based on that volume spike, should have a S&R @ 4837 based on the overall bearish sentiment.
So there should never be any trouble. It reinforces the bearishness.
many bulls may have 4800 as stoploss. Suppose it triggers then market will collapse
Thanks iitian and nay comments on ongc i have 21 lots of ongc 1000 june series put
Nifty at the Gate... where signboard reads as "welcome to Bear Market"
Bull trying hard to hold Nifty to enter that gate.
Frustrating day. Too early to go long, too late to go short.:)
powertrade, I think ONGC trade is wrong. In june series take long position in oil markeing companies and GAIL. This is my personal view. Please dont mind.
looks like all it needs is a
gentle knudge from bear,
but a heavy push by bull ...
doller index 87.47.
Thanks IItian
TOT AMIT Welcome to the world of Bears
Whatever coat i wear, right side should be important, i
enjoying this ride
I always only talking about psyconlogical aspects
i am here only for learning not for Controversal view.
I don't want proof myself to anybody if anybody wants
i will send p/l for the last one year it will speak the
truth.
bye all
hourly falling channel suggests a fall to 4770
today
Sethuji-must you come so late and throw the bomb? Please take it down by 100 points. 4669 looks decent.
@yoda,
Sir asked to short according to me, coz when he posted his "critic" i exited my shorts, but i re shorted when he told short every up.
5182 to 4800..what a trade !! missed part of it :)
Squaring off Bank nifty short at today's low and taking a fresh view tomorrow
morning is a better way to approach Swing trades for BN
dow fall is already discounted..
Cheers
hi dear sir ,
i cover my bank nifty sell at minor support level @ 8835 to 8850
so whats should be sl for reenter the sell ?
regards,
alpesh
@ Rajagopal,
A single week fall in the recent past (1 to 1.5 years) is 347 to 503 points. So "4669" is very much possible this week.
@ alpesh,
If you have exited your sell., don't take a fresh trade at lower level. Let it pass and take a fresh view tomorrow.
gr8 statistics,
repeat off 2008 now ?
some Lehman or a GS ing.
Should we now look calculating 350ema, 400ema
:)
I want your insight about this: If today 4750 is taken out on downside or even tomorrow, what will happen to such a huge 4800 put open interest. I think it is going to be dangerous tomorrow.
Guys..Anybody thinking where all the money from all the market is going into ? I don't know where the money is being poured into..... Everything is falling, Stocks, Gold, Crude Oil...Etc....Comments invited from all of you...
Sensex weekly channel support 15950 level???
May bounce possible???
Thanks and regards
No sir, I think otherwise. As per my earlier comment, market will hit the 4750-4760 mark and might stage a rally from there to finish this settlement period. Kindly correct me if I am wrong.
Ilango sir, can i hold my shorts @4920 as conservatives.
Thanks
@ tClick,
I am going by the trend that is becoming "increasingly Bearish"...I will wait till the "Bull" makes a scratch on me to ride it...Till then it is quite "snugly with the Bear".
As said earlier, let me see a good +ve div..
Sir,
According to cam level breakout 4787 protected and sensex weeky channel too protected i am long in that level?
Shall i book profit if comes around 4850 level or shall i hold my long? if the level protected @ EOD.
Thanks and regards
@Ankur ji
the money is going into US dollar and US Bonds...
Sadly people like you and me cant put money there
So we Short Bank Nifty ...and make better returns!!!
So dont worry ...be happy :))
Scrip Name Target
ACC 827.56
AXISBANK 1135.19
BHARTI 258.03
BHEL 2235.52
CAIRN 263.02
CIPLA 304.82
DLF 250.12
GUJAMBUJA 102.80
HCLTECH 348.85
HDFC 2574.53
HDFCBANK 1762.34
HEROHONDA 1821.27
HINDALCO 132.84
ICICIBANK 789.84
IDEA 49.58
INFOSYS 2486.69
ITC 256.04
L&T 1530.74
M&M 500.83
MARUTIUD 1167.51
NALCO 388.09
NTPC 188.31
POWERGRID 99.48
RANBAXY 396.95
RELCAP 633.13
RELICOMM 134.14
RIL 970.54
SAIL 182.41
SBI 2105.34
SIEMENS 645.02
STERLITE 591.32
SUZENER 56.68
TATAMOTORS 652.67
TATAPOW 1184.94
TCSCONS 683.01
TISCO 464.04
UNITECH 63.70
WIPRO 617.58
All are taking Train No 4669 to Kanyakumari.
STBT for target.
Thank you sir. You always have the medicine on hand.
@ bizagra,
You have been shorting at various levels. Not like the "positional kind". You better keep booking profits when you see 100-150+.
The day low ema has come down to 4881 - today's high..It might go further down too. If you wish, keep that (4865-4855) as a TSL.
Yes Ilango, we will have to live with shorts till a clear +ve div is seen.
@RG: Sir, you got any news for ONGC?
Thanks...Anuj...But my fundamental view about US dollar is really really Bearish.....US dollar has no value as it is not being printed against Gold... I dunno what's happening to world economy ...but I am watching the movie...
Ilango Sir,
======
I gathered just 40 points today as per your levels. Now no positions in NF. Please advice me.
Thank you
======
My bad Ilango sir, I missed out the 'sir' part in my previous msg.. apologies sir :(
TC : No. What are you looking for?
If it is the judgement, most probably against ONGC. (case is akin to RNRL-RIL hence no 2 different J'ments).
Hi,
I am seeing 4800 & 4900 calls O.I added some 290% & 85% respectively.
What does this means... Can i consider people are shorting these calls (i mean all O.I's are call writers)...
Also 4800 Put also has some 94lacs O.I outstanding...Is it long or short
Please try to help me to understand.
Ram
I am very happy. After long time someone said "Bad" Ilango !!!
ty Babu.:)
@RG: I hold longs in ONGC taken @ 1120 level sir.. Would you advise to cover it here better?
someone has a target for nifty for tomo???????
are we falling another 100 points tomo..
@Ankurbhatt,
Have you ever wondered where the money came from? I figure its going back there.:)
haha RG sir, I did not mean to say 'bad Ilango sir', I only meant 'my bad, Ilango sir'
Still wondering about how a lil comma makes big differences, hehe
Ha Ha... Yoda...that was good for a laugh...
@Bizagra!,
Are you carrying NF for tomorrow?
If NF breaks today's low, we might see 4760 and 4730 tomorrow.. Trading Nifty has never been easier during settlements ;)
@prabhakar
yes
@ Sujatha,
There is always a Bull & Bear views in the market. Who takes the money ultimately is one's smartness.
You are now betting for a gap up - that is speculation based on your calculations.
However, with such overwhelming bearish TA, just an "OS" will not be enough for me to carry a Long home..I do not want that kind of risk.
There is the difference for you to "take a pick".
The steepness of the fall is visible only today - the one I have been searching for in a strong trend.
My view is based on "Month-week-Day". In the hourly set up, things could be different.
dear ilango, very nice predictions and what is your minimum
nifty target during june 2010 because i bought nifty put 3900,
thanks
Thank you Bizagra. I am waiting for Sir's opinion.
hi
dear sir i have sell 4 nifty at 5350 level so i can buy all at this level and sitting on buy side at this level ?
regards,
alpesh
tc : GAIL and ONGC are indicating "not known" status. When elephants are flying in Sunami, why ride a goat?
Take prudent decision.(how is this RV?)
Ilango Sir,
======
Can I short NF here?(to carry for tomorrow) with SL 4865.
Thank you
======
@daxesh
you are in this Shairana andaz since morning
This doesnt suits ...perhaps "Shai" should try his hand at "Shairi"
One from my side
"Na Call karo na Put karo
(repeat)Na Call karo na Put karo
Jo bhi karo milJUT ke karo"
So square off short till tomorrow...unless you expect a circuit down!!
plz to guide for tomo???
any indications of gap up tomo..
@ alpesh,
As we have time on our side, we will definitely spot a
big volume based buy whenever happens.
Why don't you sit tight..?
ha ha...daxesh
Good bye friends.
Mr President,Mr Prime Minister, Mr Chancellor,Mr Finance Minister, Mr Secy.Gen - please keep your mouths shut.
I am Short.
Hi Anuj - Noted your helpful tool. Thank you.
Don't worry RG. Nobody will ban shorts in India. The whole Congress party will be short. :)
@daxesh
are you short or long??
@Rajagopal
what level you are expecting for nifty this expiry?
Hi random,
I am saying cz last year when we crossed the 200dma we have seen a powerful rally till 5400 and now nifty is not able to cloase above 200 dma so we have to respect the levels.
If your go through gurunifty before one week he was bearish for 3800 and now he is bullish so there is lack of convictionin his analysis.
Respect the trend and the trend is down
possible we may see a bounce from 4675 -4767 level till 4980-5066 but this will be just a bounce lest the overall view is bearisgh onnly.
June month will be remembered in history
Hi Raja paji
It needs 10 days of data...thats a problem...file size become very large
which format in excel takes the smallest space?
I have use .xls for all the files and calculators in my blog
Can you recommend any alternatives?
Cheers
dow futures -257
europe slowly going further down..
anuj
you can consider date, close alone, will save space.
@Anuj
Which MS office you are using?
@Anuj
MS2007 is having this facility 2 ways. 1 is storing it as xlsx ( xml) and xlsb ( binary )
Yes but this new one...the NR7 stock screener...
needs high, low for range and true range calculation
for rest I take data as per your suggestion
I am using a vintage model computer so the problem :))
@babu
2007 one...currently using .xls to save
anuj, then keep date,H,L only, or ask RG if any sql stuff will help
@Anuj
Try with Binary ( xlsb)
I love you babu!!! he he
xlsb takes 500 kb...xls was 6 mb
another problem is will the user using old excel version be
able to access the file in xlsb?
its good for me to save and upload ....but will the downloading person
find it hassle free?
thanks a million for your advice :))
@ mok thanks
@Anuj
Its not possible,but viewer.. can download from MS site. Its free
@babu
ok no problem...I will continue to upload in xls format...and keep in binary format
for myself...thanks again :)
@Anuj
Why you can't give this link to your guys
http://support.microsoft.com/kb/924074
So that your upload also will be faster and you will save space in web also
Yes babu...
I wonder how many people will do this upgrade
As every body in India buys "original software" from Nehru Place in Delhi
You should visit this market when ever you are in delhi...trust me its more interesting than Stock market
Full of energy and great traders doing business there
Cheers
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