This chart will be followed with other TA & EW considerations.It goes to emphasise the power of "Trendlines" that are forming basically due to "Supply/ demand pressures"...
Isn't that Market all about..?
Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ...
69 comments:
yes amit,
thats what i put ...
thanks.
your charts & calcs are a compliment to the market :)
plz keep giving your levels...
DEAR ILANGO,
NO NEED TO TALK.
THE CHART ITSELF IS THE "FANTASTIC".
THANKS..
Hey Friends,
Do not just flag dry "Thank You's"... Join me in sprint no. 3 (Clicking Ads on this Blog)... This time it has to be 2 rounds atleast!
well said, mynac ...
sir is a master in excel charts, so clear.
bhope,
:)
ok,another round this time much much below the ORB..
Ilango sir, any probable targets for this down move??
Ilango Sir,
Fantastic chart.
Hats off to you!!
:) mok
Run, run, run friends.... and sing while clicking "Ring-a- Ringa-Roses- Pocket full of...??"
i am going to see [curiosity !] if it pulls back to 4944 closing basis
hisir thx
if i ahve buy at this level bank nifty so whats sl should be follow?
regards,
alpesh
Sir,
If we go as per the dow theory the last low was the most recent correction 4675. If this breaks that, the bull market is over. Can we interpret it this way
bhope,
or London bridge is ... ...
sir,
any likely pause around 4920?
Join me in sprint no. 3 ...
Mok - some one else was calling for WALKS earlier. He became HM. What ministry awaits the sprinter? Sports?
Ilango,
The chart seems to be daily chart instead of hourly.From the reading of this chart it seems that you agree that the larger bear market rally from March 09 has ended at 5400 and labeled as larger B which was roughly 3000 pts. So logically we should see the larger C to be atleast 50% of B i.e. 3800-3900 on the Nifty. But do you see the 1st leg of larger C as an impulsive? If yes than a big fall is on the cards.
best
Sports, RG,
may get Gilled out :)
Tisco is reluctant to go down..
My personal view:- close below 519 can target 480.
Support in the hourly channel is @4920
@ piyush
20day Low was 4966
hi sir
monthly low ema is 4921 so we can buy nifty here ?
regards,
alpesh
:) mok, Raja
@ All,
"Sitting tight" to be practiced..It is only 2.18PM. and the fall started only @ 1.00PM..atleast wait till 3.15PM for intraday..
@ Manojag,
C1 is definitely not impulsive. Why..? It is a larger correction with "A" down too worked out as "abc" and the complex "B" as "abc-x-abc" or "abcde".
I guess C wave too may do some combination of "abc"..
We'll calculate the targets once the first phase ends.
Let me thank you for all your inputs and mails.
bought @ 4920 NF Sl 4910
@ Mok,
20-Day Low break is another Sell signal.
yes sir,
piyush is experimenting on the 20d HL system ...
:)
booked @4938NS
Prashant, 4920, Spot or Future?
@Sethu
why carry longs in such a scenario? We may get
another gap-down
4880-90 is good support,some part booking if reached at that level should b done, today itself.
@Sethu..
Perfect SL.. :))
i wil keep my positionals for the 200ema ...
add short on 20d low
hi sir today nifty "monthlty low ema" is 4921 and nifty pause there in intraday
so whats should be bank nifty monthly low ema
plz give some suggestion on bank nifty ?
thx regards,
alpesh
"4920-4935" supports mentioned in the EOD analysis has come. One round of "Part booking" may be in order without diluting the larger trend which is down.
Failing this level will lead to 4875.
Ilango Sir,
I have conservative short in NF (one lot only). Can I wait down trend of exit here?
Thank you
Sir
cn v take BTST..
Market fall a great 140 points odd,
5000 call added huge positions almost 24% chg in OI
5000 put - chg in Oi 0.07%
so put writers have not still unwinded their positions at 5000 levels,
just for your information.
5000 put writers seems to stucked with their positions as off now.
@ alpesh,
BN Month Low ema @ 8605.
PS : Is it Mr 2.30 with the red cap at the party?
Nifty below 4920
ilango sir is there any sign of bounce back today
@ Prabhakar,
At the risk of losing spme part of profits, stay with your shorts atleast till 4880.
@ mojib,
"4900" Option writers could come to defend that number.May be briefly..
bought again @4920
@sir,
Covered conservative shorts at 4975 on Monday and resold at 5080 yesterday and covered them at 4950..thanks :)
Since I traded twice the same call, I took roisk again by entering shorts again at 4930 now to hold till you announce the liquidation..is it right?
Sorry for a clarification but don’t want to be in lose after two spectacular trades and also don’t wanna to go below than my declared 60% ROC :)
plz give some suggestion on bank nifty ?
thx regards,
alpesh
sir, can we expect BN 8605 level in this fall?
rg sir,
2-30 won the match,
mok positive hourly divergence , when a stock reaches 20
day high/ low there will be always divergence in hourly or daily
u can only make money by 20 day system in highly trending
markets like what happened after march 09, else u'll
get chopped.
it gives only 30% success as 70% times market ranges
Stocks around the world dropped and commodities fell as the euro traded near a four-year low after Germany banned speculators from some bets against government bonds and banks. Treasuries and German bonds rallied.
===Circulated msg.
ACC 824.52 85
AXISBANK 1178.64 69
BHARTI 252.27 36
BHEL 2260.80 71
CAIRN 274.36 104
CIPLA 305.00 127
DLF 270.87 96
GRASIM 2532.79 58
GUJAMBUJA 102.98 40
HCLTECH 359.03 119
HDFC 2633.39 112
HDFCBANK 1833.36 121
HINDALCO 151.73 90
HLL 230.09 64
ICICIBANK 808.33 217
IDEA 50.74 85
INFOSYS 2572.55 128
ITC 257.43 69
M&M 513.83 109
MARUTIUD 1218.32 80
NALCO 392.05 198
NTPC 199.43 64
ONGC 1008.08 124
POWERGRID 101.07 109
RANBAXY 421.52 93
REL 944.15 104
RELCAP 636.06 94
RELICOMM 134.83 76
RIL 982.41 120
RPOWER 136.56 94
SAIL 197.71 108
SBI 2163.46 77
SIEMENS 656.66 64
STERLITE 626.14 136
SUNPHARM 1530.01 74
SUZENER 58.38 107
TATAMOTORS 699.26 150
TATAPOW 1277.22 64
TCSCONS 707.26 123
TISCO 498.12 109
UNITECH 68.54 149
WIPRO 632.47 136
Taken with NS @ -146. All STBT. Only ABB says Buy me!!!
No power here.
Given after the target col is today's volume as % of 5 days average.
Power failure.
Monthly Low ema for Nifty comes at 4889. Anything closer to that may find some "Pause"..
Accordingly at that time BN may also pause and rally... Not at 8605.as it is far away.
If 4889 (+/-25 points) does not hold, then it will simply continue with intermittent rises.
Let us remember to see any such reversal in our Day Low ema.
@ rg
everything Stbt, tells the trend story :)
Sir +ve divergence seen in hourly fmacd charts. could it be taken as a valid divergence
or should we wait for further confirmation
@ Satheesh,
In this situation, we should wait for conf.
DEAR RAJGOPALJI LT still in buy mode or exit
Dear Ilango Sir:
I covered my shorts at 4930 before your hold for 4880 target call was given;
Is it a good idea to Short at current level and hold it for tomorrow/overnight or should i wait to short again tomorrow;
Regards
sreeram
squared off nifty long taken @ 4920, no position now
Sir,
In this case confirmation near 4889 -monthly lowema??
Hi,
what should be the SAR for shorts now?? 4970??
@Bizagra!
I think we are holding conservative short in NF for tomorrow.
Now I am powerful.
JP : L&T "not confirmed zone". It is with more than 110% volumes. Risky to be Long if gap down is expected.
23 of 50 in Day OS !!! With the larger Trend to be ignored,since 21 of them exhibit -ve divergence in FMACD.
@satheesh
one confirmation cud be that in 5 min chart , it moves above
12 ema.
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missed 20 points of the fall due to long trade
@Prabhakar
Yes sir, we are below 200dma now.Cheers
Rajagopal sir - one doubt do you have any programmed software
for all stock file updations? just to update a nifty file and
tatasteel file after an absence of 12 trading days it took
me more than 2 hours. Please give me a hint how you manage?
An exchange between me and a Gentleman... On Euro issue - may be of some relvance to you guys...
My two cents on the developing situation
1. A subject very near to you – Derivatives – Today speculators who want to short Euro can do so at will because the CDS market is OTC market. Thus their ability to generate CDS is far greater than the ability of European banks to have bailouts
2. Euro as a currency as I have mentioned in my earlier notes as well – is a proxy for the credibility of the governments across EU. If Euro goes down, then the next attack will be USD – after all USD suffers from same debasement issue with only advantage having Fed being able to print them at will
3. Now the question arises – can the politicians afford to let the world descend into that form of Chaos when no western currency is a safe haven and Asian currencies are not ready to have kind of inflows that USD, Yen, Euro, Sterling, Swiss Franc have had historically
4. So if we cant afford to descend into chaos – politicians are doing their best to come up with a mechanism to replace deficiencies of USD, which is most probably being replaced by SDR. Last IMF meeting at Zurich has discussed these issues at length and there is a considerable agreement in enhancing the role of SDR and IMF as central players in global monetary system
5. So – this mechanism has to come up before any major western currency goes down, this initially was expected to come up by 2012 but now time frame given is 2010-2011
6. the problem with Euro as you correctly mentioned is different geographies, have different economic policies but same interest rates. While reading about history of US Fed – I came to know that the Fed members were responsible to set individual interest rates in their states. Thus US east coast had a different rate of interest than west coast. Helps to balance capital flows and avoid financial panics. Euro region has ignored this rule at their own peril
7. Also European monetary fund formation would reduce the amount of European influence on IMF while at the same time increasing the Asian one – confirming to the demand of Asia
8. Right now every 1 dollar IMF has in reserves – 1/3rd comes from Europe, 1/6th from US
9. Additionally – Chinese and Indian central banks buying gold points out to their desire to have more say at IMF
Right now we have not seen any central bank intervention incase of Euro to stem its fall… lets see when that will happen, should happen soon….
Wow! What a fall. The bulls really had the rug pulled from under their feet. I missed almost all the action today but holding couple of puts bought near yesterday's close.
Thanks Ilango sir, I will hold them till we see a pause around the 4880 levels.
Is this where the Bull of 2009 encounters the Bear of 2010 and meets its end?
Regards
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