Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
-
5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ...
96 comments:
Ilango sir, can i long nifty again near 4980 NS as conservative trade?
@ilango sir - will we see further downslide when europe opens - 2% ??
Pl allow me this and bear with me---
@fake RG
Hope u are reading this and will remember making fun of me on a Sunday morning for predicting 5000. ‘Dekh phanda kul gaya’ .Looks like u were not wearing any ‘shorts’ under your ‘long’ coat, now u stand naked .
Bizagra,
4960-4980 is the range given..considering market scenario, it is not solid decision to enter in to conservative long here...just my opinion..may be we can wait and see if we get another 20 points lower to enter..
@ilango sir - are we sticking to 4960 as the bottom??
I think on the daily charts we may have some more potential to move down (4840)
My other key dates are 18th May, 7th Jul, 9th Aug, 17th Oct.
I have a target of 4400 / 4200 on Nifty.
"4960" - 200sma...Would like to see if any +ve div in Hour charts.
With falls continuing & with such a scary fall in US Markets, the undertone does not give any confidence to suggest to go long at this juncture. Besides, we should be getting the weekly "SELL" today. There could be some bounces which could be attempted only for intraday as of now.
@ Obsessive Lover, it seems MASTER has written for you earlier, "
If the mkt comes to 4960 - 4980, I would feel quite comfortable to initiate some short term longs....repeat ..short term Long." I assume, this is valid now also!
Sri - I clearly remember your prediction, which was further substantiated by RV's analysis. Seldom experts agree Ilango,Sri,RV and GB all spoke in one voice. Amazing that the Market obliged a collective call.
Please keep it going. Now tell me when to encash my 5300 Long? (Ilango will switch off his system if I ask him).
Thanks RV.
Anil - Gold has a tgt of 2200 / 2400 by Dec (hold if you like)
and add more on dips. Dont follow me blindly. I can go wrong
Viren - Thanks Buddy good to c u!
Shr - Thanks :)
RG - I dont track Copper / Silver sorry
My next turn date could be May 18th
RG!!! U are LONG???
@RG
Mars is at 21'0 degree as of today. It is a matter of few days for this volatility to end. After with support from our RBI, wish you may be able to come out at BEP
sri
Ilango sir, so i m not going long, looking for bounce to go short.
Can we short below 4960 if no bounce is seen today??(looking condition of europe)
Thanks
@Original RG
Naughty boy!! i remember u doing same at 5050 short when TA was up.
Hope u will get 5225-50 before 15th .suggest to cut longs and book loss.
U can take a pinch of salt while enjoying all the sugar.
@GB
You prediction of turn date on May 18 again may come true...mercury is reaching at 10.11 with venus far off at gemini and sun in Taurus
But jupiter is in Pisces with saturn impacting which will override the smaller planetary movements. Still it is amazing..
sri
rg sir,
u have real guts. i salute u. u can maintain composure
with
market going so much against u. wow.
my first crime of yesterday longs and i got it.
hope this teaches me i wont commit it again.
@ps,
Me too entered longs..i don’t see it as crime :) still holding it and hope will get 5050/5100 levels in a week to exit..
conservatives need 40 runs ( seats) in 52 balls ( counting on )....not very relavant in our market scenario ..never the less very interesting and europe relavant....why??...because I feel a few months from now it will be U.K.s turn for fiscal deficiet...its just like bear sterns in jan 2008 and finally lehmann brothers in oct 08.
@ Bizagra,
Are you following your "Guts"...???
I'm with RG in longs from 4987 future.
Dear Sri
Till such time Jupitor is in pices sign and opposition to Saturn Shorting of finiancial stocks on every rise is benifical.
Further in another 50 days Mars-conju and Saturn ,Mars-square with sun (Govt ) is going to taake place .Eventhough this time nifty will hold 200 days average but will fall further during that period. Whle raise from March,09 lows are to be taken for the eave count to know the picture better. In the forum any neo wave specialist is there and if so what is the difference between Elliot and Neo waves
@RG your VX analysis is superb.
Thanks
CAC started with bang -3% down
PS : I have not declared the volume - you will just laugh.
Livermore teaches to Live more. Add a very bad broker to support.
The plan is to start averaging once Master declares conservative Longs.
What do we gain by loosing cool ? I just believe that I won't LOSE.
God Bless Me.
Sir i only want to follow you :):):):)
Had too much loss in last 2 years due to guts hahaha
Sir,
Is it a correct way to analyse
Divergence in 5 min started at 5072, so that cut be the target of the upmove
@ SriGanesh,
Most bottoms are made in panic situations.
yesterday's 80 point drop in SPX was a algo
trading gone wrong (though nobody will own up)
We may hit 1080 on the SPX again, but don't think
that 1053 will be violated soon.
The first "Baby step" for the bulls is to close above 5022 @ 1.00PM & protect it with a higher close next hour.
@Mok
ha ha ha!! so u remember the fake RG.
ya he was the one who gave me this 'Avataar'
A 'shaken and stirred' RG will surely remember.
RG,
i am on the road with you on far month.
shortings & squarings have made the averages to long of 5072 now,
from initial 5350 !]
RV's criticism helped me [motivated me].
you may try :)
Sriganesh - thank you sir!
Viren - that is rubbing nice salt on the wound mate. Now there are three confessions.
===
Bala (Sundari?) - Thanks. Hope it is useful.
@ RG
Really a great man, maintaining a composure is waht i want to learn!
mkt may not follow u always, but how to b remain calm and composed is really a different game altogether.
i want to confess, i initially booked out whenever isee losses, but then i learned with options how to play the game.
A close above 5035, is still better.
Dear Bala,
I dont know the basis associating saturn with financial stocks.. Financial stocks are not fallen so much on relative terms becoz as i said earlier saturn's dispositor is mercury which is ruler of financial knowledge and stocks...
I consider the forthcoming mars and sat conjunction in virgo sometime during july beginning onwards as real fun....saturn as of today is 4 degree in retro when it turn direct on may 26, may give support...
sri
yeah RV,
he "numbered" me before the Govt UID does ...
:)
RG : < what do we get by losing cool ,I just believe I wont lose>
wonderfully said.woulld love to meet you sometime , have been to shankara netralya and arvind eye hospital,madurai...may be next visit down south.
sorry for putting up pretty unrelavant news...closed my O.P.D today as was expecting big down so wanted to do some cherry picking..did nothing though
Regards
@RG & MOK,
Oh my crime partners.. my long comes @ 5080 (june series)..
@Sri,Bala
Hope u post a monthly astrological observations with specific dates.
Sir can i buy Tata steel here?
@assortz
dont love ur crime u'll commit more. may god give me sanity not to commit
why did we enter longs, pos div in 5 min . it is to be used for intraday only. bizagra closed at the
right time
Fast Moving market.
Buyers showing up.
Enter stops in system. Algo trading happens
in India too..
Mok - Thank you. As a prelude and since I have a favourite toy (TA Table) will get out of NIFTY for some time - stocks give better returns. Must retreat from battles to win the war !!!
RV - How will I ever forget? He is watching. Will just appear in your name or mine !!! (Never think of the Devil).
GB: Yes. Still Long.
CAUTION ALL
PL. CHECK THE BLOGGER IDENTITY IF THE COMMENTS LOOK OUT OF PLACE/PERSONALITY
"5014" is the revised Low ema(Hour)
dear rg sir/all,
can we go long in tml
RajaGopal,
Wonderful work on the excel.
But you must be playing very large quantities
to cut the brokerage out and still make profit?
Usually the Vix range is less than 2 % intra..
hi anil
if u can help me in options
sold 5000put at 98
plz guide how to manage the position
new to OPTIONS
STOPLOSS AT 130==HIT
SHOULD I SELL IT AGAIN
WAITNG FOR ANSWER
@Rv
:)
@viren
Algo trading?
Viren - Big Thanks. Volume part is your advise.
I select vix>1.60 counters+first preference to range beaters as TMF,TISCO,BHEL,UNITECH etc.
Second half of the question - yes+brokerage very supportive.
sir's both side intra reco has worked for me.
long closed at BB 5min U 5020
@ viren,
hi freq is taking over.
gnment of economic, technical, cyclic and psychological indicators suggest that the market is particularly vulnerable to a nasty intermediate decline.
To understand where we are coming from, it’s important to have a view as to the direction of the secular or very long-term trend of equities because the secular trend defines the characteristics of the primary trend; i.e., price movements that revolve around the business cycle. In that respect, we put out a report entitled, “Are You Ready for Another Lost Decade?” several months ago. It basically sets out the argument that the US stock market was about halfway through a secular downtrend. Recessions in a secular bull market are rare and fairly shallow when they develop. On the other hand they are far deeper and more plentiful under the context of a secular bear. That’s also true for primary downtrends in the equity market. Primary bull markets that take place in a secular bear market are also shorter and less powerful. We call those “bulldog” rallies because they are bull trends in a dog type (secular) market trend.
Since 1900, the average bulldog rally prior to a correction in excess of 7.5% gained 45% and lasted 46 weeks. Based on a Friday closing low, the Dow has risen by just under 70% since March of 2009. At the end of April, the advance was in its sixtieth week, not far from the 1943 63-week advance. We could be wrong in our assessment of the secular trend, but if we are right, the current advance is clearly vulnerable to some corrective activity. There are several other factors that point in the same direction, so let’s go through them in turn.
HI Manu aka sugar daddy
Hope u are calm now. seeing ur long positions in late night discussions ,i felt pained and removed my comments.
How is it going today
@GB
Looks like PIIGS have replaced BEARS to take on BULLS.
as BULLSDOGS have replaced BULLS.
seems we are struggling to get past 3 dema...5029
hi gb, market took U-turn again. misses 4969
@ Bizagra!
I want to know one strategy from you if you don't mind. Are you doing only conservative trades in Nifty futures?
Manu,
Algo is HFT or High frequency trading.If you were
watching last night the order at 1071 was one such
one which flushed out all the bids till 1052 and
the market went straight up after that.
1071-1052 was the largest tick I have seen since 2008.
@ RG,
Do u have anything more volatile as your setup
will work better with more volatile stocks ( IMV)
operator is very smart. I am long from morning 5020, still there inspite of all volatility. No change to get out
it did not close above 5022 by 1 pm as stated by i lango sir
what are the inferences
and then what are the levels to watch
@RV
gud..added more sugar after cutting n morning..
taste d same..i m positinl n sugar..
@ dr. saurabh
Sold 5000 put @ 98 inflow=98
If nifty moving up for marking 4th, hold and then exit as soon illango initiate a postiitonal sell
or else
cover 5000 put net i/(O)= 112-95=(17)
sell 4900 put=76 net i/(O)=(17)+76
sell 4800 put=50 net i/(O)= (17)+76+50= 109
so u moved ur risk to lower levels, and not immediate 5000.
if nifty moves up , u can encash both puts!
hope i answer ur query...goodday
@ manu,
algo trading is high frequency program based automatic trading.
where the program analyses the ticker data and places buy sell order,
now mainly done by FII.
supposed to be done for very thin slice of markup down.
said, they even get incentive on quantum turnover,
thus while others pay brokerage, they get incentive ...too.
Its done here now,
but not allowed to us yet.
Google if you wish to know more.
interesting concept where the programs logics are supposedly secretive
@ Illango,
I forgot to say hello to you !!
Please accept the greetings from your disciple :)
http://www.niftylivecharts.com/
GB,
buyers going up again,
sellers trickling down...
viren sir,
trip finally over or more to go??
THANX ANIL IT WILL HELP SURELY
"Do u have anything more volatile" - Viren.
Yes Viren. My mind.
Do you mean the counters ? Yes. I find them outside N50 - pls refer to Future's sheet.
HI VIREN
NICE TO C U AGAIN
RG
:)
@ Piyush,
I will be out again. Back with family for the weekend.
RajaGopal,
:)
I was looking at futures only. N50 or otherwise does
not matter. Volume needs to be good.
I will study the sheet again looking for more
volatile stocks.
Heard it from Shai - " if you know the direction,
volatility is your friend '
Viren : Kindly do. You will find some vague names there, basically they are volatile with higher volumeper lot. The trend is also indicated for individual stock based on ema-mp-closing which is further validated by OI-PRICE movement.
It will be a pleasure to have your critical review that will perfect it further,since it is my only trading tool now.
A Big Welcome back to "Viren".
I have missed your inputs terribly.
"Sanjay" has been kind enough to help with MP values of Spot.
However, MP values being so much dependent on Volumes, your Futures value will be much sought after.
Glad to have your presence here.
@ Dr. Saurabh,
Allow me to offer some unsolicited ‘First Aid’ tips on options-
1.Refrain from writing puts as well as calls.that too naked ones.
2.Use options for hedging only.
3.Writing options is not correct strategy in volatile markets.They are best used in sideways market to gain from time decay.
Next step for the bulls is to close above 5035 @ 2.00PM...
sir NS or NF
i lango sir
please bother to mention
sir,
can we close out puts now
My target for gold achieved - 1740
now downmove for gold - 1540?
http://when2buy.blogspot.com/2010/05/nifty-vix-gold-6th-may.html
rochak
it is as per tech table so ns
5100 CE at day high again
Ilango sir, how did you arrive at the figure of 5035 at 2?
@ Illango,
I missed the blog too.
I have a cousin sister who has just joined GS as an
apprentice.She is staying with us for her hols and
wanted inputs on the world of financial markets.
I refered your blog to her and she has been one of
your silent observers and knows all the people here.
I need not add that she speaks like an expert on
ema's and divergences etc etc.
@ Dr Saurabh,
:)
Ilango Sir,
I have no positions in Nifty Future. Please suggest me to resell area for conservative trade.
Thank you
THANX AARVEE
thanx really for advising, ur always welcome to even criticize, that always improve.
ACTUALLY MY BASIC POSITION was sold 5400call and 5000 put, when we were at 5200 which was just to take advantage of time decay.
i was composed till 5000, but when it broke 5000 and viren also says that if 4987 doesnt hold ,that was the moment , i panicked.
but yes it is a good learning.
i didnt expect market to b so mercurial.
quite an herculian task given by MASTER for NS to close abov e 5035 by 2 pm
It seems "No one" seem to follow the Tech. table that I have been uploading.
Most of my observations are based on this table that shows "price strength & weaknesses" along with their intensity.
Each time frame reflects its inherent weakness & strength.
sir,
am one sincere student who plans trade nothing other than Tech.table :)
sir
2 pm ema rising and close above ema
sorry I LANGO SIR
i follow
but i do not understand even ABC of it, since i am new and not aware how to read it SORRY MASTER
and what is the inference now, please tell us master, did we close over 5035 by 2 pm or not
thanks piyush for telling
sir,
am following the NS 5ema 5037
also NF 5 Hi ema
both hourly
shorted at 5037 looking for NF 5 Lo ema, SL 5048
thanks to your teachings
@sir
everyone follows ur tech. table..
but all hv diversified trades..many are positional..
some do trading n stocks only..nt n nifty..
i rembr ur lvl of clsng abv 5116(low ema/val)
fr longs else cnsrvt shrt..
its ur wrds which matters to us:)
@Viren
Gs means Goldman S
shai evn stpd postngs..he ws missing u..
Ilango Sir,
Good afternoon,
Hourly EMA @ 2 pm is 5040
above 1 pm EMA 5035.
NEW POST DONE.
"It seems "No one" seem to follow the Tech. table that I have been uploading."
First time you spoke like the teacher you are. If it is someone else I know, he would have linked the down loading part as BRIDGE to enter the blog.
RG,
pottu kodukkireengala,
class ukku veliyae vanthakka
kavanichippom ...
Mkt is holding low ema, thats good for the bulls.
25% Retracement resistance ( of fall from 5297 to 4983) coming at
5061
50% retracement (of rise from 4672-5399) @ 5035
daily s1 - 5047
so it looks like, as it holds hourly low ema, bulls vl try to take nearer to daily pivot 5082(5060-5080)..
lets see, if how it goes!
Post a Comment