Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ...
117 comments:
Good Morning to ALL
Ilango Sir,
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I have no positions in NF. Yesterday I covered my conservative short. Please suggest me what to do.
Thank you
======
Hai everyone
Nifty 5 minutes chart resistance and supports.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/05/nifty-5-minutes-chart-support-and.html
thank you
I have shorted at 4875... Where would be an ideal SL? I have placed it at 4904.. Is that Ok?
Pls help
market follower said...
@musti1780 and all,
Nothing any secret in my system
i am just following price only i.e higher high and
higher low for long and lower low and lower high for
short but it looks quite simple all are knows it. I created
some rule to follow it.
Again and again i always urge you that
wining edege is not in system, it depends on how we follow
it. I have only five year experience in this field but
living only with my trading income. I don't
even deviate myself from my system whatever happens in
any time. Money management and psychology is key to success
Trading is not hobby for me it's my profession to run
my family.
That's why i always urge treat trading as
a business don't more focus on news.
@ market follower, well said. Thanks!
Thanks @market follower, The simplest systems are often the best, esp if we can stick to them with confidence. All of us would like to call it a profession as soon as we consistently have success.:)
@ Prabhakar,
A long treade could have been done based on PreMarket levels as well as ORB.
As Bhope has done, a sell could have been done @ 4885.
@ Bhope,
The SL may be brought down once Nifty starts to move lower.
Ok markrt follower abt ur system but my question is
how U find 5010 levl for sale on wednesday?
Any special thing U notice at that time?
Thanks a lot, Ilango.
Dear Ilango and friends - a colleague of mine has send following analysis - Your views please - Best regards Deepak
Nse nifty monthly wave counts from 2002 is as below
Wave 1(up) 920 to 2015
Wave 2(down) 2015 to 1292
Wave 3(up) 1292 to 3775
Wave 4(down) 3775 to 2595
Wave 5(up) 2595 to 6357
Now a-b-c flat correction calculation
Wave A (down) 6357 to 2252
Wave B (up) 2252 to 5400(78.6% retracements from low)
Wave c (down) 5400 to 2914(78.6% retracements from low)
Market Below 200 day EMA ( 4899 ) first time after 28/04/2009
Thank you Ilango Sir,
Now I shorted NF at 4880.
GM Mr.Elango
Shall I go short BN at 9045 levels now.
Good morning all,
Little gloomy here :) ..closed shorts yesterday but the worst part was entered longs @ 4945 and carried them ( RSI trapped me) ..shocked to see the deep red everywhere in the morning…but pre-market view gave the confidence to hold longs..booked longs at 4885 and entered shorts now at 4885…looking this as an speed-breaker to the winning streak of the recent past and “much needed” for me to keep foot on floor and walk step by step.. registering all this here becoz only to remind friends here..
1. think twice before entering trades “against trend” especially if it is overnight carrying trade..i never did this in recent times but did yesterday :)
2. think thrice before closing “conservative” calls yourself..always better to wait to hear from master before taking such “slicing golden duck” decisions :)
Ilango sir, i m holding conservative shorts, i m going out
for some imp. work for 3 hrs, do i need to place any bid, or simply
holding will not be a problem? plz tell
@depaak
2914 s scary:(
@market
i thnk so market and human nature are
inveresly corelated
its just our belief thats makes behaviour(action)
hope RG understands better thn me 5300 calls
s ws fr same attack i think so:)
Whenever Ilango Sir suggest to part book, then only I am closing my total position(I am doing one lot only).
@assortZ!
I remembered you in the morning (because you are in long position). Your 2 tips are nice.
Hi all ,
Ilango is my guru. He knows me well if i
introduce myself, he boost my confidence in my early
stages.
@Ilango
can you find me who am i?
@assortZ
What logic you missed is, Down trend + limited profit in long call. If market bounced in opening loss we can accommodate in profit what we got all the way from 5185. That too In this journey we did 3 times part booking and 2 times re enter. So we can risk some 50 points
Prevously there was Hemanta on this blog but since last
4-5 monthsc there was no post from him.
@ assortZ,
rightly said. Sometimes we commit such type of mistakes not only for once but go on repeating. I have experienced and even paid much for such mistakes. But now coming to this blog, trying to be disciplined.
Your both tips are not only good, but the best for all of us.
-arpit
@assortz,
u r not alone. i too committed the same crime. my tuition fees for 1st one was less
paid more. remember i told u dont love ur crime else u'll commit more.
this time puts were not there though sir told.
converted long to shorts at 4880. was a relief morning saw sgx at
4825
Once entered in a trade... this PSAR dots, RSI, divergences, volume spikes, big candles in opp. direction etc. etc. keep distracting... Need to know how to have conviction in trades and tackle this double-minded confusions.
i wish 4850 not breached today
hi manu,
i wont be surprized at the retracement,
the way 2008 went about skipping down level to level.
but then market is supreme over us ...
it may go eitherway.
sir,
is there any chance of strong pullback upto 4980 in nifty???
Dear Sethu,
Remember school days? "Pazham"?
Even if don't respond, salutes to your very clear views and the professional language.
@assortz
Really we need discussions when one take positions against the trend, if their is some convincing logic, then surely we can take.
i too thought a +ve div is their in rsi and cci too, but i think we need to confirm it by drwaing illango's channels and trendline methods, if we get a breakout then it may be a confirmation, with hourly holding low ema and attempting to clear off high ema..
ohh god what a nice system is this one..
plz give suggestions how to trade on div. and with cross check confirmations.
hi
OMG - Dinesh Rishi here?
With Europe signalled to open DOWN, will we have greater decline during the last hour?
Keep day's High as SL for intraday Shorts now.
Hi GB,
GM. With an Hi, you have to post "Dad is doing fine" till you declare "He is back home". Request.
Now tell me, have we gone to the Nadirs, and whether your July time table is in tact?
yes RG - mostly we will test 4830..
I would go long at 4830
SL 4800 breaking this would lead to 4630
@ Market follower,
You have to reveal yourself.
You see I have this bad memory...I forget everything..including my mother & friends. I am always in the NOW.
My elder brother used to scold me for forgetting my school friends. He does not know I have forgotten my college friends, my work colleagues later on....
I do not know whether i am blessed or cursed..
RG -
Here is what I'm laying out.
Breaking 4800 will lead to 4630 next week.
Otherwise July we head up to 5220 (breaking that 5500) June 25 or July 7
then down again by Aug 9 (4900 / 4850) if we go to 5500
or if we go to 5200 we go down to 4550 / 4600. n then up to
4800 n down to 4000 / 3900 by Oct 28
@anil sir,
there was aconfirmation too , hourly slow macd
signal line cross macd, day already oversold.
inside day after downtrend ( signifying change of trend)
thats why it was called 'bull trap'
gb sir,
hope ur dad is recovering fast,
@rv u have proved ur genius once again, read ur alert after market
:-(
Thanks Ilango for timely help...
There maybe just 1 more day of a fall left.. with a recovery
on Monday.
Thanks Piyush yes he is better now still in the hosp.
=====
Ilango Sir,
I shorted NF at 4880.I want to hold it as conservative trade. Is this correct decision?
Thank you
=====
hi GB
illango sir if sl break can i buy it there
Hai everyone
Nifty hourly chart showing a possibility of a reversal.
Will be confirmed only if we close above 4935.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/05/nifty-hour-chart-reversal-is-possible.html
thank you
@ RG,
will be nice to store GB levels in that excel plz
hi gb how is ur father
10.5 lacs volume bar in 1 minute chart...
Hello all..
just observed in NF bid there was a single 45000 buy and nifty moved from 4881 to 4891 in 1minute..
don't know how to interpret this..
SIL
Done mok.
all good sir
thanks mok and worm
@Anil..
wat does that much volume spike in 1min chart indicate?
please elaborate if possible
SIL
such high volume bullish bar didnt form in last 2 days
My intraday Short posn SL is trigerred... Now no posns.
@ Prabhakar,
I will repeat what I mentioned yesterday:
A pause or a reasonable rally will be in place, if Nifty closes above "Day Low ema" (For today, it is 4931). So Bulls may attempt to move there...We will know if they have it in them to move up now or fail on the way.
If Bulls make it, then the next thing is to scale 4980-yesterday's high.
A fall below 4868 and then 4845 will shoe Bear's strength.
So watch these numbers and trade.
With one lot, especially in a strong trending market, you should have held through. Since you want to participate in "intra action" too, try to take two lots next time.
LLANGO, THANK YOU FOR NICE COMMENT ABT ME. Sorry to join late today. Yesterday told that nifty will start at 4850. Now in afternoon we will be close to 4750 definitely. One can take short position in IDFC, as it is trading below 200 DMA, just broken yestreday. My guess is market will touch 4500 before this expiry and expiry will be around 4675.
@Ilango
I am Gurumurthy from pondicherry now can
you catch me?
@ prabhakar, have you kept your short of today as positional? I have also shorted at that price after seeing so many like assrtZ, PS, Bhobe ....Now need to know your pos and others, who are short at such level!
In Context of US markets - FYIP
1. We are now down more than 10% on the S&P.
2. Since the bubble era began in the early 1990’s, there have been only two corrections of more than 10% during bull markets encompassing economic expansions.
3. During the prior 100 years such corrections were the rule, not the exception.
4. Both post 1990 10% plus corrections were very brief, even though the second occurred amidst a major (LTCM) crisis.
The above post is frm a known
Thank you Ilango Sir for your valuable advice.
pis... I have been stopped out at day high level ...
Hi...Gurumurthy,
Yes, we have interacted over mail a year ago..
You have done really well. Keep it going.
******************************************
I am reproducing your mail - for others benefit, please.
************************************
Yes, it is definitely possible to make a living out of trading & investing. However, when you don't have a regular job or business, the pressure on you increases. And that in turn makes you hurry and you tend to become emotional.
I suggest to you to go back to your job/ business but keep in touch with the market in a small way. Learn..learn...learn to gain in confidence to get back in full time.
As you said you have incurred some losses or not making enough, it is important to take a break or atleast introspect.
Smart traders are those who will patiently wait to initiate the high-probability trade instead of compulsively trade all the time. Market gives you some very perfect trades, if only you are patient.
If you are a disciplined trader and your systems are good, why the low success rate? Ask your self..Are you not following it diligently or letting your emotions/ heresay/ media news, etc to change your views.
Let me give you some tips.
1.Trade the positive divergences to go long in the market. Sometimes it can fail too. And sometimes it may take a while before prices may start to move up. So you can't rush into buy the moment you see a +ve div. Wait for the price to move above 5 day ema/ average.
2. Trade the negative divergences to go short..The rest is same as above.
3.When weekly is down and the daily is turning down from the top(Like the stochastics, macd), sell. But reduce your selling positions once the daily becomes oversold and start to show +ve div..like our mkts now.
4.Play Nifty futures more than the stock futures. And play less of options unless you are sure of the direction and also only in a trending mkt.
5. I will give you two links: the first one for trading positional Nifty futures based on Nifty spot prices. The second one is for trading purposes..intra.
IITian,
Be careful...:)
@SuchIsLife
i guess there's going to be many more 45000 kind of bids today, keep watching ;)
just watch, IDFC has not recovered at all, even when nifty has recovered.
@prabakar,
Thanks for remembering me :)
@arpit,
Thanks for comments
@anil,
Agree with your comments but am completely zero on technicals and a kid who started learning here..
@PS,
Welcome crime partner..all points noted..will keep in mind..yes missed to hedge with puts yesterday “double crime”..sure..will be careful
@babu,
Logic was in mind..but it was a “greed” to swallow 50 points gap-up and resell at higher levels..:)
@Pisreport!
I am holding my short in NF.I will close if NS closes above Day Low Ema.
@sethu,
Welcome back to forum
@Ilango,
Thank you for remembering me
@prabhakar,
u can try minifty multiple of 20 only
@ RG +pazam + Sethu = Good Output
:)
HI ILANGO SIR,
I HOPE U REMEMBER ME :-)
Hai everyone
Noted a point from the above mail to GURUMURTHY.
Let me give you some tips.
1.Trade the positive divergences to go long in the market. Sometimes it can fail too. And sometimes it may take a while before prices may start to move up. So you can't rush into buy the moment you see a +ve div. Wait for the price to move above 5 day ema/ average.
POSITIVE DIVERGENCE IN HOURLY CHART
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/05/nifty-hour-chart-macd-positive.html
BUT trade it the way master has explained above
thank you
GM ILANGO SIR AND FRIENDS
illango sir but sl to hit ho gaya kya 80 ke niche fir short kar de
@PIS,
Am still with shorts as I was keeping eye on VAL 4925 or LOW ema 4931..but am treating the trade as not intraday but positional which I off-loaded yesterday..so, will be with this position till master’s announcement :)
@Piyush sharda!
After loss in F&O (before our blog), I am doing one lot only. Your suggestion good. I will try it.
Thank you
It's falling on rising volume again.
@Ilango, I've got a bad memory too for everything in the past. Probably theoretical minds.:)
@ AAR VEE,
I am yet to become "Gajini" style. :)
hello Gurumurthy sir,
i want to interact with you about your trading system in detail. please give your e mail address or mobile no.
HA HA HA ,I AM BLESSED
@ YODA,
You are the perfect person to ride this wave down - Your experience and the added composure of all the exposure should give you the perfect temperament.
SIR,
"TOPI" TARGET (4850) OF WEEKEND ANALYSIS REACHED BUT NOT ELATED SINCE FEW OF MY DEAR FRIENDS HAVE WORN IT.
R V : Welcome new comer. Please go thro' "Always start with" on right top. You have "Cyb.celibacy" problem, I have "selective amnesia"
GM RV. Thanks for the personal mail.
OI Data - 4800 Put 8204200 (+ 1354000). 4900 Call 7247159 (+ 493250). OI data suggests that Nifty will not go below 4800 today.
@Prabhakar
Try trading three mini-nifty lots instead of one nifty. That gives you chance to part book and re-enter at almost the same risk.
Regards.
HI RG
THOUGH SIR HAS NOT BUT I PREFER TO HAVE SHORT TERM MEMORY LOSS AND FORGET CYBER CELIBACY (C.C)ONCE IN A WHILE
@RG ,
FINDING SOMEONE MENDING BRIDGES(SETHU IN HINDI).HOPE U FIND THE MAIL USEFUL AND CAN SHARE WITH SIR.
@MOK,
KNOCK, KNOCK
@RM
GM
@MANU
HI SUGAR DADDY
@GB
HOPE UR DAD'S RECOVERING FAST
@pisreport
i took intra and conservative b oth at 4880, sl can be
4925 now val else looks like will get hit,
@ yoda is just waiting for market to CRASH...
whoz knocking ? RV ? RG ?RM ?manu ? :)
1st wave down must take out low of the prvious wave therefore nifty will take out 4675, if it is first down wave. It should also do it in lesser time, that measn it will do it less than 10 weeks and today is the closer of sixth week downwards.
Hi RV. :)
@PS,
Hi ,hope ur experiments are paying off.Mok's mail to u is of importance showing the indicator u require for ur system
Thanks AssortZ, Prabhakar and RM (your message to Prabhakar)!
Good idea rm..
:) Ilango, Raja... for light jokes
for letting me go off the lil loss hangover!
RV : "U can't mend what is not broken". Tried the first step in building(upto) the bridge - nice that he reciprocated.
Yours and mok's mails (purely personal-not for sharing pls) were really great. Will do as suggested + "Sir"
Good morning everybody.
I am late to this bear party. Will it continue for some more time? And if yes at what levels should I get in?
Thanks
@shr upside watch 4930 and downside watch 4840-20
@RG
ya u can see it addressed to u only but fwd to mok after ur mail as had some general inputs.
I will try to give them over weekend too.'sir' because to get more improvisation and clarity.
I may be a quack but when in role of a doctor ,try to maintain ethics.
hi all
waiting and sitting tight to get 4850, having one lot only
@assortz..
I was also long yesterday evening with you.. and after Master's suggestion to take a 5000PE.. i took short minifty as hedge luckily..
today i covered my short at 4865 and booked my long at 4884.. now again i am with master SHORT with low ema 4931 as SL waiting for 4868 on the downside to come to have a smoother ride with fellow colleagues..
but i think market has some other views.. but i have my SL in place so just chilling out.. :)
letz see how this plays out..
RV : I have copied mok. Just wanted to request our friends who are fond of "knowledge mails" that it is personal.
Started working on it already. Will share the outcome.
RV, i am going to make your note applicable to all [removing 1st 2nd persons and send a round so others wil know to handle a situation like that.
@RG
We can be on gtalk or new blog's chat/comment for ur comfort
Europe futures are all in red as of now. should we expect a fall, now that even this 12pm close may be bellow hourly LEMA !
Above 4889 close, bulls get some strength.
@ILANGO SIR
Thanks for sharing the mail with us.I faced a similar situation back in 2008. And as you said above i went back to my job and started learning technical analysis for the last two years.
I bought many technical analysis books. Now what ever i have learned i am trying to share it with others through my blog. Still don't have enough money to enter the market because of the huge debt that i created in 2008. One day i am hoping to come back to NIFTY FUTURES.
The only thing that's driving me in stock market is the possibility technical analysis to predict the market direction. Your blog has been a big help for me in learning TA.
You have motivated many people including me for example you are the first person to comment on my blog. I am adding my first post were you have given your comments.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/04/reliance-industries-trading-near.html
thank you
hi AARVEE
plz share with this doctor only.:-)
@mok
leave it out as RG says,i will be giving the weekend analysis.
Sir
Good afternoon to everybody.
Yesterday evening I saw msgs about positive divergence in nifty. So like a fool i hedged my posn with a 4900 june call without your saying. Now i am having both the call and the nifty short. Only grace is that i did not close my short in nifty future and go long in nifty future.
I took an intraday posn to hedge against the call but it stopped out at day high. Before i could exit call, mkt started going down. Sir, Now wehre can i exit my call. I can also hold for upto 2 week (after which decay will destroy me) to exit at higher level during a bounce.
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I was reading tim kninght slope of hope site. He is saying S&P will bottom slightly above feb low of 1044. Then rally 10+% for next 2-3 week till about 1150-1170. By end of july S&P will be 925. 25% correction from peak of 1220.
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NEW POST DONE
HI DOC
HOWS IT GOING FOR U.ANY MAJOR SURGERIES IN THIS ACCIDENT .
@Ilango,
Not as much as when I first learnt EW from you. I've lost both confidence and consistency with a long period of experimentation.
Now I'm much too cautious to be as wildly successful as back then. This market is a trecherous place for the overexposed.:)
@piyush
A crash could be on its way but it'll wear us down first. lol
@ yoda,
yes, when we least expect it, and after we reverse to no entry lane
:)
@ RV, RG
yes, agreed.
my idea wont be done without concurring with both of you.
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