Monday, May 17, 2010

Nifty Intraday Update-I

50 comments:

A J said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Piyush Sharda said...

sir,

i am confused abt opening, if i guess u have taken
opening at 9.00.12 after 6 ticks, there r trades at
5063,5050,5040 etc u have ignored. this might be of help in
2652. pls enlighten

A J said...

Reposting
****************
@Sharda Saheb
Don't be under so much tension..checking ticks and whether futures have opened or not
Just chill..take the first minute close as the opening price (in ATR calculator that I posted we take friday's close as high price for todays range!!!)Feel free to experiment
will not make any difference to your net worth..and mind will be free from "opening stress"
Try it..you will not see any difference.
Technical Analysis is more of art than science...where imperfection is rewarded and perfection leads to unnecessary stress

Prabhakar said...

Ilango Sir,
===========
Due to some work, I am going out. I have no position in NF. Please suggest me to resell level.
Thank you.
===========

Ilango said...

@ PS,

You trade the NF. So take NF Open & high. Matter is resolved. NF is rarely manipulated. Only the traded value is reflected.

5017.70 is the open and 5021 is the high as per NSE.

My India Bulls tick list shows a open & High of 5014.

Ilango said...

@ Anuj,

Well said.

prashant shah said...

hi llango sir and all blog friends ..GOOD MORNG TO ALL.. Dow future down -108 and FTSE DOWN 58 POINT

Ilango said...

@ Prabhakar,

Put 5080 to sell.

Prabhakar said...

Thank you Sir.

assortZ said...

europe will take its own time to cool-off it seems..
likely to trade negative for couple of days

bizagra said...

GM Ilango sir, 4975 is given as support area.I booked to trade
@4980. Does that means i sud short again at break of 4975.Is this
correct method?

R.GURUMURTHY said...

Hi Guys,
KEEP 5012 SL FOR SHORTS
GO LONG ABOVE 5012 FOR 30 TO 40 POINTS GAIN

mojib said...

ilango sir what urs view on nifty future now will it hold 4975 if not then where it will in intraday and positionally

AAR VEE said...

GM Ilango sir,

Now that we have completly retraced the recent upmove,what are the EW possibilities that may emerge and the most likely one.can u please post a chart at your leisure.

Thanks

prashant shah said...

llango sir... 10 months aveg is 4966 so can i buy nf
and sl is 4960 ?? thanxs Regards

Anil said...

@ ilango

eur/usd moving up, we r moving down?

LAKHAN JADEJA said...

mene 5000 me nifty buy kiya he to ab kya karu

Piyush Sharda said...

anuj bhaiya,

if u r trying to trade for 0.6-0.7% in daytrading will it not
make a difference. now, is it necessary that i trade
such a system -no
but now my experiment is going on following it.
if i discontinue it even i wont be bothered.

sir in my terminal open is 5017 and high 5021

A J said...

CNBC says nifty below 200 DMA...
@assortZ
I feel its time to change the color to red from orange..even CNBC is saying so
Actually the problem is with my eyes..I just see two color...red and green!!

LAKHAN JADEJA said...

pls sujest me stoploss ilango sir

assortZ said...

Are we going to make a pause here to start fresh grinding downside or will reverse from here?

@ yoda,

Finally, it is proven “double top” :) cheers!

r m said...

@Anuj
Ignore CNBC. The color seen by your eyes are real. :)

Ilango said...

Viren's MP values & Pivot points are as follows:

For the coming week the Market Profile has given us several pivots to see price/ volume action. Keep a watch at 5010-5018, then at 4955-4964 and 4882-4842-4825.On the upside the levels are 5092-5096, 5135 and 5215.

Now the level that should hold for a short term bounce is 4955 - 4964 NF.

Prashant said...

If this is a five-way down, then 4950 is the minimun
target, if the 5th is not extended.

sryasdmurali said...

Mr. Elango

Shall I buy 500 put of tata steel now @8.50. cmp tata steel is 526.

Ilango said...

@ sryadmurali,

Tata steel has fallen from 608 to 523 today in just 4 days. This is not a time to buy a PUT but on a rebound to 545 - 560.

It could go lower but the risk in options time decay suggests avoidance at this stage.

Piyush Sharda said...

Sir
I am seeing positive divergence in sl macd hour whereas fast macd is not showing it, such cases shud be ignored??again in 5 min fase and sl macd clear pos diver, both given buy

A J said...

@Ilango and all
The stock price movement in ABB concerns me.
this further shakes my confidence in technical analysis and
takes me close to risk management and money management
What are your view about this one?..how to deal with such uncertainties?did you see it coming wrt EW?
@Raja Paji
Do you track it in your "Vix action 50 pharmacy"?
Why was it falling since April end?..I am sure you will have something
interesting to point out..any suggestion to stay clear of this kinda stuff?
Cheers

Anonymous said...

Illaingo sir,

As per your chart coorection made to 4975(4976.55 actual,can buy nifty at this lelvel.Thanks,Hitesh

sryasdmurali said...

Dear Mr. Elango

Will Nifty sustained at this level till Hangsng post lunch session.
If then shall I buy tata steel at 527. tgt of 560 intraday.

wormwood34 said...

gm everyone.looks like GB's target of 4800 on 18may2010tiesday will come true

Ilango said...

"Intra long trades" should be done with close SL.

@ Sryasdmurali,

Remember "buying for a bounce" is always tricky and you may not reverse your trades when weakness surfaces unexpectedly. Instead wait patiently for the bounce to happen and initiate SELL when TA continues to confirm the downtrend.

LAKHAN JADEJA said...

nifty 5000 me li he kya karu stoploss he?

Rajagopal said...

Dear Anuj,
I find in the table that ABB developed -ve Divergence on 26.04 and started its down trend. 14D High and Low are making lower values.

The dismal performance and surprisingly poor results announced has sent this packing. Today's recovery is again news based - equity infusion by the parent co?

Today's High of 874 is reversal from a 14D High of 833 as on date.
===
We can expect such monkey jump in the sunken ship also soon. Wily old cats control it.

Ilango said...

@ Lakhan Jadeja,

You jumped in too fast.

If you can keep a SL of 4950, you may get a profitable trade above 5020.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Ilango said...

@ Anuj,

ABB has done a clear 5 waves down from 871 and was trading in the middle of major support band of 650 to 700 on Friday.

Though the technical downtrend was on and such a sharp spike was not envisaged, coming out of shorts at such level is always protects. A hedging too would have avoided losses.

@ RG,

ABB's today's high is 832.00

A J said...

Thanks Raja paji for your thoughts and info about results

Saif said...

ABB has announced a buyback at 900 per share...so a expected jump towards those levels

LAKHAN JADEJA said...

thank u ilango sir

Rajagopal said...

Sir,

ABB in My trading terminal shows O,H,L,C of 685-874-685-821 with a volume of 23.54 L as at 11.42.
Is the high a stray value to be ignored?
(Equity)

A J said...

@Raja paji and Ilango
I got the answer...another thing to write down in the trading rule book..
that there is always a surprise element waiting for you regardless of TA..
Since I talk of easy solutions..
I would say that diversification(for positional traders) and day trading are two ways of this pleasant/unpleasant surprise
@yoda
Since you have just concluded your money management and risk management study
May be you can add some more ideas

A J said...

Raja paji
NSE data cant be trusted
Take 1 mins bar close as opening or high value..if high is not made after that
around 840 can be considered high...counter is illiquid
good that people dont trade it..

Ilango said...

@ RG,

When I take a tick data in my India Bulls terminal, it does not show 874.00 at all, though high under "High column" is 874.00.

The opening is 827.85 and the high at 10.45 is 832.0.

To upset the "auto EW softwares" as well as "TA based on Pivot points", such freak quotes are fed into the terminal and it needs to be ignored.

rahul said...

ilango sir i had buy nifty at 4968 should i that 4950 nifty spot as sl and tgt 5000

Ilango said...

NEW POST DONE.

Rajagopal said...

Got it Anuj/Ilango. Will ignore the stray quote or keep it as target(good omen) for Long.

mayurkamani said...

hello ilango sir,plz tell me abut rnrl i can buy put at srick price of 70

Local said...

@assortZ

lol, finally! @'double top'
It could have obliged us with a triple top instead of plunging like this.:)

Rajib said...

@ Piyush and many others like us ...

I can see myself in your position 8-9 months back when I started the journey. I was always eager to capture each minute (or perhaps seconds) of market's movements, scanned and studied whole lot of indicators, bugged experts in almost every forums I visited to ... and I always thought I shall act before the market reacts ... but realized that theoretically it's not possible, it's the other way round. Last half-a-year I have learnt a lot ... it's not that I have earned a lot ... but I'm largely free of anxiety now (frankly speaking that's a bit overstatement but took the courage to say so that I can convince myself in public forum) ...

Few things for us who are trying hard ...

1. Always be ready to react on market actions (i.e. if you are to go long be ready with your price, once long be ready to exit with your stop-loss; same for other positions. This ensures risk amount.
2. Never try to set target for the market (and your positions). But always know and predict the direction. This is where TA is helpful, only to know the direction, expected entry / exit point.
3. There might be several technical indicators, but the most effective as I have found are related to the moving averages, it's derivatives and the divergences in them - MA, MACD and the Stochastics & RSI.
4. It's better to be in positional mode for small players than intraday; net gain is always for the broker in intraday.
5. Lastly have patience and believe in your position (mind you, you have taken the position after lots of deliberations).

Certain KPI's for a positional trader (w.r.t. one underlying):

1. No. of main positions: 1-2 per month
2. No. of hedged (counter trend) positions: 4-5 per month
3. Ratio of no. of positions closed in gain / no. of positions closed in loss per quarter
4. No. of fake exits / No. of right entries per quarter

Again, I repeat, none of these learnings has made me gain substantially but it has made me stress-free, it's a serious business and a long-term one and therefore it needs to be stress-free.

I'm generally a bit reserve to speak about my trade not because I don't want to share but I don't know something happens and few of my subsequent trades go wrong; may be superstition.
Nevertheless, I wrote for two reasons:
1. To share a fellow trader's mind with likes of Piyush, me and many others.
2. Pay tribute to iLango sir who has taught me a lot through this forum.

Sorry if I have spammed in this market hour.
Regards,
Rajib

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