1.Weekly Chart
The Nifty Weekly chart shows the weakening trend and trading below 20W ma.It gives the Channel Bottom Trendline support at 4800 levels in coming weeks.
2.Daily Chart
The Nifty Daily chart shows the Fibonacci levels for the upmove from 4675-5399 along with the 20 and 50 Ema lines(5175-5185 area) which will act as Major Resistance .The 200 dma line(4982),which is also near the last swing low(4984) can act as Major Support. Below which is the Channel Bottom Trendline support at 4800 levels.
It also shows an ABC pattern movement of Nifty with positional target of 4760.
3.Volume Profile Chart(5D)
The last week Volume Profile chart shows high volume areas which will act as Resistances during any upmove in May series.Last trading day selling happened at 5175-80 area which will act as major Resistance as it is also the 20& 50 dema area.
Nifty will turn bullish only above the close of 5200 levels, which are recent highs in last Week trading and Price Rejection area.
4.Misc Observations
(a)The last close at 5094 is below both Daily and Weekly Low Ema. More importantly it has closed below Monthly Ema, turning the overall TA Bearish for this Month.This has happened after several months as shown in the Tech Table.
(b) The tug of war area will be near 200dma .Any upmove from 200dma,(4982) and 61.8% retrace level,(4950) will meet strong Resistance at 5125(38.2% retrace)-5157(Weekly close 5ema ).This area is also a high volume area in Volume Profile.
(c) Weekly and Daily charts have Channel support area near 4800 levels.
5.Personal Bias
I hope ‘MAY’ series settlement may oblige or can extend to early next month as mentioned in last weekend analysis also.
6.Three Month Chart
For TA educated people ,the pattern may look like a bearish ‘Rounding Top’,to a layman like me , it looks like a TOPI (‘Topi Pahnana’ is a desi slang meaning-To trick someone) ,which has been tailored for traders with 'Buying at Dips' formula.
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The few factors that convinced my critic of this downtrend are:
1. FII selling in a big way.
2. Broader market lagging the frontline scrips as shown in the two charts below: Nifty.500 lagging the Nifty.50.(This is his AD ratio)
3. OI keeps rising and the prices falling.
4. The most reliable slow macd trending down in the negative zone below its trigger.
15 comments:
Good Evening Sir. Update sent. I am afraid the following facts further cement RV's happiness.
a. Only 5 of the 50 stocks have reached the weekly OS state - 10 more in clear bear zone, with downward bias.
b. Only 23 of the 50 reached > 90% of 5Day volume avg. Of this 23 only 5 have +ve trend balance 18 are going down with volumes.
c. Of 26/50 which are in <90% - 19 are in "Down" trend and 7 in "not decided" zone.
d. 33/50 have developed -ve divergence in FMACD and 26 these are -ve in SMACD also.
So equities say Down.
e. 23 of 43 Futures tracked are either Weak or Weakening as per OI-PRICE indicator.
f. Overwhelming 40 of 43 futures have give a "Down" trend signal - Price indicator.
g. 18/43 are in weekly OS status and still signalling "Down"
So Futures say Down Down.
Precious metals and dollar are rapid in upward movement - does it indicate change in "Parking" preference for the big boys.
Added to all the TA is the looming GB threat of 18.05.10. Hope the dawn will bring in more clarity.
Thank you Rajeev for yet another scud on my happiness.
Hi Aar Vee,
very good analysis..
your positional target coincides with mine.. however, the approach was different.
I am reproducing that
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In the past whenever we broke the trendline support, starting from March09 lows, we have retraced approx 23.6% from the recent highs.
1. 2540 to 5182 = 2642 points*23.6% = 623... 5182-623 = 4560
Low made 4540
2. 2540 to 5311 = 2771 points*23.6%= 654... 5311-654 = 4657
Low made 4675
Will it follows this time also
3. 2540 to 5400 = 2860 points*23.6% = 675... 5400-675 = 4725???
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the chart was posted here.
http://tradingontechnicals.blogspot.com/2010/05/nifty-view-05-may-2010.html
your analysis gave me more confidence.
Thanks
sir,
excellent work.
thanks
hi RV,
wow,,
hit on the nail head..
no no NO buy on dip till <4800 ...
:)
[psst --- RG, listening ?]
on way up we were caught between 20sma & 20ema,
now 20s is 5199, 20e 5182 fallen
on down, also 200sma 4982 before 200e
bb bottom 5034, bb bottom [week] 4743
20d low 4985
1st level fall possible till 5011, 4914
be finger-happy on F2, [schume not now]
[unless the waiting money still on sidelines comes to demand]
is ULIP eligible to buy [invest] now?
thanks.
mok
@ Amit
yeah, i remember that post
:)
so 4725 ????
[unless the waiting money still on sidelines comes to demand]
Dear Mok,
Since Mauritius is under scanner, the source mentioned is "Jersey" in UK. Huge funds with India bias waiting for right entry levels.
Like the old Chennaite, I keep looking at every small cloud to bring the rain during our water scarcity.
@ RG,
cool,
chennai cloud may not give water,
but "jersey" may give milk
:)
thanks AAR VEE for the input
Ilango sir ,
Thanks for continous support and confidence shown in my analysis.
Hope the analysis benefits one and all in profitable trading.
dear ilango i bought 5200 ce at
70 with 8 lots,now its trading around
31 rs, could i hold for next week or exit on monday,?
Real Analysis. Mentor Ilango Sir's way of analysis/teaching (in)/directly) and Contribution of Sound Knowledgable blogmates bring more strength to us, especially me.
I have the same view of Sh.RV. I posted my views on icharts on 15.5.10 in this link:
http://www.icharts.in/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2410
posted ny view at my blog
buy at 5030 sl 10 pts tgt 5070 sl 5125
reverse for 4924 4870/50 reverse for long 5300 before july 7
Thank you all for the excellent views.
Looks like stormy times ahead. All hands to the deck!
gautam sir please send me the link to your blog mu ID is rahul.goel32@gmail.com
@ Prakash Duraisamy,
If 5000-5025 area holds, there could be an intraday rally towards 5085 or 5110. That would be a time to exit your calls.
A decisive trade above 5135 alone can bring in a sustainable rally for few days.
We just can not ignore the big money outflow by way of FII figures. And the heavy OI positions in the futures market will weigh the markets down.
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