Bullish Views:
1. A simple "iv" can move upto 5265-5295.
2. A "B" wave correction may take it to 5305-5335.
3. A "5th" wave can either be a truncated(5335-5350) or make an equal length of 1st wave (4675-4930=255) targeting 5415 (5160+255=5415).
Weekly trend remains up and the daily is at "Oversold" levels. There was positive divergence in 5 minute time frame when Nifty touched 5160.
Holding 5180-5200 levels, with + ve world cues, a move to 5238-5245 initially and after a pull back, it may move higher to 5265+.
As mentioned last week...5293(weekly pivot)..will be the inflection point.
Bearish view:
Inspite of +ve world cues, if Nifty moves below 5200 and trade below today's pivot(5194), it could make a low around 5150-5140 and if that results in +ve div in hour chart, that could provide with a divergence long trade. So watch resistances @ 5238+
26 comments:
its going to be tough to judge direction, at least for this week. Most likely range is 5100-5260..seems almost impossible to breakout from this range till expiry.
Good Morning all.
Good Morning ilango sir and other blogmates
-arpit
gm all
@Rajagopal
Kindly provide the link of getting VIX values.
The EOD analysis is extremely good. Thanks.
Good morning dear all!
Good morning Ilango Sir and all blog mates
Gm Illango Ji and blogmates
i am in no position in nifty/banknifty
pl. suggest any
regards
vikram
Good Morning to All
Gm Sir,
wht is tiscos range for today
regards
Ilango Sir,
Can I initiate small Long in NF here?
Thank you
(or) wait for 5190?
nifty 5 min minor neg divergence, resisting on upper trendline
of downward channel
Dear Illango
Contributing a chart...hope you wont mind!
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_88fjmcdhjs8/S80oIENhYdI/AAAAAAAACJc/5_jmD1HzLB0/s1600/NF+Hourly+20th+April+10.png
Cheers
GM Ilango & mates
T. e. s. t
Hi..Manoj (Tryin2Trade),
Thank you for making your presence but most importantly giving your valuable inputs to our readers here.
You have one of the best "objective TA observations", I know of.
Every one will rejoice your presence.
Hi Guys,
This analysis is based on EOD chart of
nifty
1-Drawing eod trend line from 4675 connecting 4835
has been broken at 5272.
2- previous swing low 5230 also has been broken
and closed below that level.
3- 3965,4390,4565,4720,4950,5160 MAJOR SUPPORT
for past 9 months
4- 5305,5380 MAJOR RESISTANCE
5- Drawing weekly trend line from 3918 connecting
4675 now comes at 4940
NOW MARKET HAS BEEN BROKEN PREVIOUS SUPPORT ZONE
OF 5305 AND NOW TURN TO RESISTANCE.
NOW MARKET IN BAND OF 5160 TO 5305. SO CLOSING
ABOVE 5305 WILL TURN TO POSITIVE FOR MARKET.
IF MARKET CLOSE BELOW 5160 FOR ONE OR TWO DAYS
IT MOVES TO SECOND BAND OF 5160 TO 4950.
WEEKLY TREND LINE COMES AT 4950 RANGE
FIB. RATIO FROM 4675 TO 5399 38.2% ALSO AT 4950
FINAL VIEW:
IF MARKET CLOSE ABOVE 5305 WILL TURN TO POSITIVE
IF MARKET CLOSE BELOW 5160 WILL COMES MARKET
TO IN RANGE OF 4950--5000 IN 10 TO 15 DAYS.
ps .Trend line, support, resistance, swing low, swing
high is my only tool.
CONCLUSION:
Ilango Sir,
I have conservative short position in Nifty future. Can I initiate small Long in Nifty future? or wait for 5190 NS level?
Thank you.
NEW POST DONE.
@ Prabhakar,
"Part booking" has passed us @ 5160 yesterday. Now hold the shorts with 5270 as a SL.
A shallow trading range may emerge now, followed by a direction dictated by RBI moves.
Anyone..Know what time is the RBI announcements.
Ilango sir,
RBI announcement at 11am
Ilango Sir,
Now my doubt is cleared.
Thank you
Sir Time of declaration of policy is 11.30
regards
vikram
Ilango Sir,
Many thanks for your lvls on TISCO. Managed to come out positive by your advice of learning to sit tight.
Regards and Grateful as Ever
Arvind
the addition of OI in 5200 call and put could be due to people writing the 5200 SADDLE which generally is done before imp events like these and budget etc to capitialise on the increased volatility.
Friends,
RBI credit policy Update> as expected the government increased the key policy rates by 25 basis points. The Repo and Reverse Repo stand at 5.25% and 3.75% respectively, while the Cash reserve ratio increased to 6.00%. "
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